Colorado Buffaloes vs. Boise State Broncos Pick ATS

Colorado Buffaloes (24-10 SU, 17-17-1 ATS) vs. Boise State Broncos (22-10 SU, 17-14 ATS)

When: Wednesday, March 20th, 9:10 PM (ET)

Where: UD Arena, OH, Dayton

TV: truT

Point Spread: COL -2.5/BOISE +2.5

Total: 140

Money Line: Colorado Buffaloes -142/+118

Notable Injuries

Buffaloes

• Julian Hammond (Out) Knee
• RJ Smith (Out) Leg

Broncos

Recent Form

Colorado enters this game as a 2.5-point favorite, and they have been the favorite in 29 of their 34 games this season. The Buffaloes have a record of 23-6 when favored, including a 16-8 mark in Pac-12 play.

On the road this season, Colorado has gone 7-8, but they have won five straight away from home. Their average scoring margin on the road is -1.7, compared to +15.4 at home.

Colorado’s over/under record for the season is 20-15, and today’s line of 140 is lower than the average over/under line of 148.8 in their games. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 127 points.

Colorado’s ATS record this season is at .500, but they have been better on the road, going 6-9. Over their last 3 road games, the Buffaloes have gone 3-0 vs. the spread and they are 5-5 in their last 10 as the favorite.

Boise State will be the underdog at home, as they are getting 2.5 points against Colorado. The Broncos have gone 13-5 at home this season, and they have an average scoring margin of +11.5 points per game.

Boise State’s record this season is 22-10, and they have gone 13-6 in Mountain West play. They are coming off a 76-66 loss to New Mexico, and over their last ten games, they have gone 6-4 at home.

Boise State has an over/under record of 17-14 this season, and the average scoring total in their games is 143.3 points. Today’s over/under line of 140 is lower than the average OU line in their games (139.9), and this year, 14 of their games have had a higher over/under line than 140. Over their last three games, their games have averaged 146 points compared to their season average of 143.3 points per game.

As the underdog, Boise State has gone 6-6 against the spread this season. At home, their ATS record is 10-8. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Broncos have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Against Oregon, Colorado had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 79.3 points per game. They scored 68 points and posted a field goal percentage of 41.7% in the game. In terms of offense, the Buffaloes have a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, putting them 34th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 37th in percentage and 247th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Colorado defense is giving up an average of 70.6 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Colorado’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 43.6% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 31.5% this season.

In contrast to their season average of 75.8 points per game, the Boise State had a below-average performance. They scored 66 points against New Mexico and had a field goal percentage of 29.4%. Tyson Degenhart is currently the leading scorer for the team, entering today’s matchup with an average of 17. Meanwhile, Chibuzo Agbo also brings a PPG average of 13.6 into the game.

Coming into today’s game, the Boise State defense is giving up an average of 67.5 points per contest. In their previous game vs. New Mexico, the Lobos finished with a field goal percentage of 29% and a total of 76 points vs. Boise State.

Betting Trends

• In their last three road games, Colorado has averaged 70 points per game while allowing 61. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-0 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
• In their last five home games, Boise State has averaged 74 points per game while allowing 70. The team’s record in this stretch was 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
• The last ten games that Boise State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 6-4 straight up.
• In their last five games as the betting favorite, the Buffaloes have a strong straight up record of 4-1. In addition, their ATS record was 3-2 in these scenarios.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

I don’t take too many public plays, but that’s whee I’m landing here. Take Colorado -2.5