Texas Tech escaped Boulder with a two-point win just last month, and you should read on to get our capper’s ATS pick to see if the Red Raiders’ top-30 defensive efficiency can hold off a Colorado squad that nearly pulled off a 24-point second-half comeback in their first meeting.
The Setup: Colorado at Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s laying 14.5 at home against Colorado, and if you’re scratching your head at that number, you haven’t been paying attention to what’s happening in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are a legitimate top-30 team disguised as a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 squad, while the Buffaloes are riding an offensive hot streak that’s masking some serious defensive rot. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t just justified—it might be generous to Colorado.
Texas Tech posts an adjusted net rating of 18.4, good for 26th nationally. Colorado? They’re at 11.2, sitting 64th. That’s a seven-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and we’re getting 14.5 on a home court where the Red Raiders just took down Houston and dismantled Baylor. The market’s telling you something here, and it’s screaming that Colorado’s 8-1 record is fool’s gold built on a schedule softer than a marshmallow.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Colorado @ Texas Tech
Date: February 11, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
DraftKings Line:
Spread: Texas Tech -14.5
Total: 156.5
Bovada Moneyline: Texas Tech -1400, Colorado +750
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s start with the efficiency gap, because that’s where this game lives or dies. Texas Tech ranks 25th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.4, while Colorado sits at a ghastly 210th with a 109.3 mark. That’s not a typo—Colorado’s defense ranks 210th in the country. They’re allowing 78.4 points per game, which ranks 282nd, and their opponent field goal percentage of 45.7% sits 286th nationally. This isn’t a defense; it’s a suggestion.
The tempo tells us we’re looking at around 69 possessions—Texas Tech runs at 70.3 pace (125th) while Colorado sits at 67.9 (200th). Neither team wants to run, which actually favors the Red Raiders. In a half-court game, Texas Tech’s 23rd-ranked offensive rebounding percentage (36.4%) becomes a weapon against Colorado’s porous defensive glass. The Buffaloes rank 280th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 28.4%, which tells you everything about their physicality.
The total at 156.5 is begging you to go over when you see Colorado averaging 88.4 points per game. Don’t fall for it. That offensive rating of 124.6 was built against cupcakes. When Colorado faced real competition—Baylor, Iowa State—they got demolished. The adjusted offensive efficiency of 120.5 is legit (20th nationally), but it doesn’t matter when you can’t get stops.
Colorado Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Colorado can absolutely score. Their 52.1% field goal percentage ranks 14th nationally, and that 41.0% three-point shooting (6th) is elite. Isaiah Johnson leads at 15.3 points per game, but the real engine is Barrington Hargress, who’s dishing 4.9 assists per game (87th nationally). This is a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures.
The Buffaloes also take care of the basketball better than almost anyone—just 9.4 turnovers per game ranks 16th nationally, with a turnover ratio sitting 3rd in the country. When Colorado gets into their half-court offense, they’re efficient and smart. That 58.1% effective field goal percentage (27th) shows they’re getting quality looks.
But here’s the problem: they can’t defend a lick. That 38.3% opponent three-point percentage ranks 349th—dead last territory. They don’t force turnovers (6.0 steals per game ranks 277th), they don’t protect the rim consistently, and they get torched from deep. Their last five games tell the story: losses to Baylor, Iowa State, and UCF where they allowed 86, 97, and 95 points respectively.
Texas Tech Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Texas Tech isn’t going to wow you with offensive fireworks. Their 44.3% field goal percentage ranks just 235th, and they’re not particularly efficient in the half-court. But JT Toppin is a monster—20.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game (5th nationally in rebounding). Christian Anderson is a legitimate floor general averaging 19.1 points and 7.0 assists (5th nationally), giving the Red Raiders a pick-and-roll tandem that can exploit Colorado’s soft interior.
Where Texas Tech wins is on the glass and on defense. That 36.4% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 23rd nationally, meaning they’re getting second chances against a Colorado team that doesn’t rebound. Their defensive rating of 99.5 (88th) is solid, and more importantly, they’re holding opponents to just 29.4% from three (59th nationally). When you can’t shoot from deep against Texas Tech, you’re in trouble.
The Red Raiders also defend without fouling—their opponents average just 70.0 points per game (111th). They’re not spectacular, but they’re sound. And at home in Lubbock, where they just beat Houston 90-86 and destroyed Baylor 92-73, they’re a different animal.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Colorado score enough to overcome its defensive deficiencies? History says no. When the Buffaloes faced quality opponents, they got shredded. Iowa State won by 30. Baylor won by 19. These weren’t close games—they were statements.
Texas Tech’s offensive rebounding against Colorado’s 280th-ranked defensive glass is going to be a bloodbath. Toppin’s going to eat on the offensive glass, and those second chances will demoralize a Colorado defense that’s already fragile. When you combine that with Christian Anderson’s ability to control tempo and get into the paint, Colorado’s going to be playing defense for 30 seconds every possession.
The three-point shooting matchup is fascinating. Colorado shoots 41.0% from deep but allows 38.3% (349th). Texas Tech shoots 36.5% but allows just 29.4% (59th). In a game where both teams are going to jack threes, who do you trust? I’m taking the team that actually defends the arc.
Colorado’s turnover margin is elite, but Texas Tech doesn’t rely on forcing turnovers—they win with physicality and rebounding. This matchup neutralizes Colorado’s biggest strength while exposing their glaring weakness.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 14.5 with Texas Tech, and I’m not sweating it. The efficiency gap is real, the matchup favors the home team, and Colorado’s defense is a sieve waiting to burst. When you’re getting a seven-point adjusted efficiency advantage at home, you lay the points.
The Red Raiders are going to control this game on the glass, get second chances, and force Colorado into a half-court grind they can’t win. Toppin and Anderson are the two best players on the floor, and in Lubbock, that matters. Colorado’s going to score—they’re too talented not to—but they’re giving up 80-plus in this environment.
I’m projecting something like 84-67, which covers comfortably. Take Texas Tech -14.5 and sleep easy knowing the numbers are on your side.
