Cornell travels to Jadwin Gymnasium this Friday seeking a season sweep of Princeton after dominant offensive performances defined the first half of their Ivy League campaign. The Big Red enter as a strong ATS pick behind a nation-leading 22.2 assists per game and a three-point barrage that ranks first in the country with 13.4 makes per contest. After digging into the transition data, it’s clear that Cornell’s 4th-ranked effective field goal percentage (60.4%) remains the primary engine for their high-possession attack.
The Setup: Cornell at Princeton
Cornell’s laying 2.5 to 3 points at Princeton on Thursday night, and if you’re not paying attention to the Ivy League, you’re missing one of the season’s biggest efficiency mismatches. The Big Red just boat-raced Princeton 87-64 two weeks ago in Ithaca, and now they’re getting a tiny number on the road? When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line screams value. Cornell ranks 52nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.2, while Princeton sits at 316th at just 100.0. That’s not a gap—that’s a chasm. The Tigers are 3-9 for a reason, and Cornell’s elite shooting attack should carve them up again.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Cornell at Princeton
Date: February 13, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Jadwin Gymnasium, Princeton, NJ
Betting Lines:
Spread: Cornell -2.5 to -3
Total: 156.5 to 157
Moneyline: Cornell -150 / Princeton +130
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s where it gets interesting. The market’s giving Princeton a massive home bump here, and I’m not buying it. Cornell’s adjusted net efficiency sits at +3.0, ranking 136th nationally. Princeton? They’re at -8.5, good for 279th. That’s an 11.5-point efficiency gap, and the line’s only asking Cornell to win by a field goal.
The pace matchup favors Cornell too. The Big Red play at 72.7 possessions per game, ranking 49th nationally, while Princeton crawls at 68.4, ranking 184th. Even if Princeton tries to slow this down, Cornell’s proven they can score in bunches—they’re averaging 91.1 points per game, ranking 16th nationally. Princeton’s averaging just 69.6 points, ranking 319th. The Tigers don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace, even at home.
The total at 156.5 feels about right when you split the difference, but the side? Cornell should be getting more respect here. This spread assumes Princeton’s going to defend significantly better than they did two weeks ago when Cornell hung 87 on them. I’m not seeing the evidence for that assumption.
Cornell Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let me tell you about this Cornell offense—it’s a thing of beauty. They rank 9th nationally in both three-point percentage (40.6%) and effective field goal percentage (60.5%). That’s elite shooting efficiency, and they’re not just jacking threes. They rank 1st nationally in assists per game at 21.3, meaning they’re moving the ball and getting open looks.
Cooper Noard is the engine, averaging 20.2 points per game, ranking 30th nationally. He’s got help too—Adam Hinton chips in 14.6 per game, and Jake Fiegen adds 14.2. That’s three guys who can score in double figures consistently, and Princeton doesn’t have the defensive personnel to slow all three.
The concern? Defense. Cornell ranks 280th in defensive efficiency at 112.3, and they’re allowing opponents to shoot 47.6% from the field (334th nationally). But here’s the thing—Princeton can’t shoot. The Tigers are shooting just 41.8% from the field (313th) and 32.9% from three (208th). Cornell’s defensive weaknesses won’t matter as much against an offense this limited.
Princeton Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Princeton’s not without merit defensively. They rank 195th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 108.5, which is respectable. They’re holding opponents to 31.3% from three, ranking 125th nationally, and their defensive rating of 108.4 ranks 220th. In a vacuum, those numbers suggest they can keep games close.
Dalen Davis leads the offense at 16.5 points per game, and Jackson Hicke adds 13.3. They’ve got a competent backcourt, but the offensive rating tells the real story—101.8, ranking 324th nationally. They’re not generating efficient offense, and their true shooting percentage of 53.5% ranks 276th. That’s well below average.
The Tigers also don’t create turnovers—they rank 332nd in steals per game at just 5.0. Against Cornell’s ball movement and high assist rate, Princeton’s not going to disrupt the flow. They’ll need to execute in the halfcourt, and nothing in their profile suggests they can consistently do that against even a mediocre defense.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This comes down to whether Princeton can slow the game to a crawl and grind out possessions. But even if they succeed in controlling tempo, Cornell’s shooting efficiency is too much to overcome. The Big Red rank 14th nationally in true shooting percentage at 63.1%—they’re converting at an elite level.
Look at the recent history too. Cornell just beat Princeton by 23 points two weeks ago, and before that, they won by 32 in March 2025 and by 9 in January 2025. Princeton’s lone win in the last five meetings was a two-point squeaker in March 2024. The pattern’s clear—Cornell has Princeton’s number.
The rebounding battle should be relatively even, with Cornell at 36.6 boards per game (201st) and Princeton at 34.4 (267th). Neither team’s dominant on the glass, so this won’t be decided there. It’s about shot quality and efficiency, and Cornell holds massive advantages in both areas.
Princeton’s best path is forcing Cornell into turnovers and converting those into easy buckets. But Cornell’s only turning it over 13.8 times per game (295th), and Princeton doesn’t force many steals. The math just doesn’t add up for the Tigers.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Cornell -2.5 without hesitation. This line’s disrespecting a Cornell team that’s significantly better on both ends of the floor. The 23-point beatdown two weeks ago wasn’t a fluke—it was a talent and efficiency mismatch, and nothing’s changed since then.
Cornell’s 5-5 record might look pedestrian, but their efficiency numbers suggest they’re better than that mark indicates. Princeton’s 3-9 record, meanwhile, is exactly what a team ranked 279th in adjusted net efficiency deserves. The home court’s worth something, but not 20 points worth of difference from the first meeting.
Give me the team that can shoot, pass, and score in bunches. Cornell covers this number, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they win by double digits again. Cornell -2.5 is the play.
