Fifth-ranked UConn looks to extend a 12-game home winning streak against a shorthanded Creighton squad missing key freshman Jackson McAndrew.
The Setup: Creighton at UConn
UConn’s laying 17 at home against Creighton on Wednesday night, and if you’re wondering whether the Huskies can cover that number again after boat-racing the Bluejays by 27 just two weeks ago, the efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com tells a pretty convincing story. The #5 Huskies own a 26.9 adjusted net rating that ranks 12th nationally, while #23 Creighton sits at +9.3 (84th). That’s a 17.6-point efficiency gap, and when you factor in home court at Gampel Pavilion, this spread isn’t some Vegas trap—it’s a reflection of a massive talent and execution disparity between two teams heading in completely opposite directions.
Creighton limps into Storrs at 13-13 overall and 0-10 ATS in their last ten games. The Bluejays are 2-9 on the road this season and just got demolished 85-58 at Creighton less than three weeks ago. UConn, meanwhile, is 24-2 with a 14-1 home record and has won four straight. The Huskies rank 27th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency. When you’re that elite on both ends, you don’t just beat mediocre teams—you bury them.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Location: Harry A. Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT
Matchup: Big East Conference Game
Bovada:
Spread: UConn -17
Total: 143
Moneyline: UConn -2000, Creighton +950
DraftKings:
Spread: UConn -17.5
Total: 142.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market settled on UConn -17, and honestly, that feels light when you dig into the matchup. The Huskies’ adjusted offensive efficiency (121.9, 27th nationally) against Creighton’s adjusted defensive efficiency (106.6, 124th) creates a 15.3-point mismatch in UConn’s favor. Flip it around, and Creighton’s offense (115.9, 68th) against UConn’s elite defense (95.0, 12th nationally) gives the Huskies a 20.9-point advantage on that end.
The pace blend projects around 65 possessions—neither team pushes tempo hard. UConn operates at 62.3 possessions per game (348th nationally), while Creighton sits at 67.0 (188th). That slower pace actually benefits the more efficient team, which is clearly UConn. When you’re shooting 49.0% from the field (27th) and holding opponents to 40.0% (20th), you don’t need extra possessions to dominate.
The model projects UConn winning by 23.2 points, which means there’s value on Creighton at +17 if you believe in variance. But the Bluejays are 8-18 ATS overall and 3-8 ATS on the road. They’re 0-10 ATS in their last ten games. This isn’t a team that keeps games close—they’re getting boat-raced by quality opponents and struggling to score against elite defenses.
Creighton Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Where’s the case for Creighton? You’d have to squint pretty hard to find it. The Bluejays rank 176th nationally in scoring (76.0 PPG) and 226th in defensive scoring (75.2 PPG allowed). Their effective field goal percentage (54.2%, 80th) is respectable, but they can’t rebound—27.9% offensive rebounding rate ranks 303rd nationally. Against a UConn team that blocks 5.4 shots per game (12th) and limits opponents to 29.7% from three (15th), Creighton’s going to struggle to generate quality looks.
Josh Dix leads the Bluejays at 11.7 PPG, but this is a balanced-scoring team without a true go-to option. Blake Harper adds 9.8 PPG and 5.8 RPG, while Nik Graves chips in 9.7 PPG and 3.6 APG. The problem is consistency—Creighton shot just 40.91% in that 27-point loss at UConn two weeks ago and managed only 58 points. In their last five games, they’re averaging 67.0 PPG while allowing 76.2 PPG.
The Bluejays do assist the ball well (15.8 APG, 75th nationally) and turn it over at a reasonable rate (11.4 per game, 161st). But when you’re facing UConn’s length and discipline, those numbers won’t hold up. The Huskies force 7.1 steals per game (144th) and block everything at the rim.
UConn Breakdown: The Counterpoint
UConn’s the real deal, and the numbers back it up across the board. Tarris Reed Jr. anchors the middle at 15.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG, giving the Huskies an interior presence that Creighton simply can’t match. Solo Ball adds 14.6 PPG, Alex Karaban contributes 13.4 PPG and 5.8 RPG, and Silas Demary Jr. runs the show at 10.4 PPG and 5.6 APG (45th nationally).
The Huskies rank 30th in effective field goal percentage (56.3%) and 48th in true shooting percentage (59.1%). They assist on 18.5 baskets per game (10th nationally) and control the glass with an 31.4% offensive rebounding rate (164th). When you’re that efficient offensively and you pair it with a defense that ranks 20th in opponent field goal percentage (40.0%) and 15th in opponent three-point percentage (29.7%), you’re built to dominate inferior competition.
UConn’s 14-1 at home this season, and they’ve covered just 3-12 ATS in those games. That’s the concern here—the Huskies win big but don’t always blow teams out by enough to cover inflated spreads. They beat Georgetown by four at home despite being favored by 16.5, and they failed to cover against Butler on the road despite winning by ten.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the paint and on the perimeter. UConn’s scored 948 points in the paint this season compared to Creighton’s 776, and the Huskies’ rim protection (5.4 blocks per game) will make life miserable for a Bluejays team that already struggles to generate offensive rebounds. Creighton ranks 303rd in offensive rebounding percentage—they’re not getting second chances against this UConn front line.
On the perimeter, UConn’s holding opponents to 29.7% from three (15th nationally) while shooting 36.8% themselves (39th). Creighton’s at 34.7% from deep (148th) and allowing 35.6% (295th). The Bluejays can’t defend the arc, and UConn’s going to exploit that all night. In that 85-58 beatdown two weeks ago, the Huskies hit 16 threes while holding Creighton to just five.
The pace favors UConn because the Huskies are more efficient. At 65 possessions, you’re looking at roughly 80 UConn points and maybe 60 for Creighton if they’re lucky. The total sits at 143, and the under has hit in nine of the last eleven meetings between these teams. Both teams rank 147th in turnover ratio (0.2), so there won’t be a ton of transition opportunities. This is a halfcourt game where the better team methodically pulls away.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with UConn -17. Yeah, the Huskies are 3-12 ATS at home, but Creighton’s 0-10 ATS in their last ten games and getting demolished by quality opponents. The model projects UConn winning by 23, and I trust the 17.6-point net rating gap more than I trust Creighton’s ability to keep this competitive. The Bluejays just lost by 27 at home to this same UConn team, and now they’re walking into Gampel Pavilion on a Wednesday night in February? That’s a recipe for another blowout.
The total’s trickier—143 feels about right given the pace and the under trend in this series. But if you’re forcing me to pick, I’d lean under 143 based on the historical data and UConn’s defensive dominance. The Huskies aren’t going to need 90 points to cover here. They’ll grind Creighton into dust defensively and cruise to an 82-60 type of win.
Best Bet: UConn -17
