Don’t let the similar conference records fool you. Creighton has been a “dumpster fire” on the road, losing comfortably to Nebraska and Iowa State, while Xavier is riding a five-game winning streak in Cincinnati. Bash explains why the Musketeers’ ball security and perimeter shooting create a massive edge that the point spread isn’t fully capturing.
The Setup: Creighton at Xavier
Xavier’s sitting at -2.5 to -3 against Creighton at the Cintas Center on Tuesday night, and I can already hear the skeptics: These teams are basically identical in the Big East standings, why is Xavier favored at all? Look, I get the surface-level logic. Both squads are hovering around .500 in conference play, and the adjusted efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com have them neck-and-neck – Xavier at #116 in net efficiency (5.1), Creighton at #109 (6.2). But here’s the thing – this line isn’t about season-long résumés. It’s about what’s happening right now, and Creighton’s been an absolute dumpster fire away from home while Xavier’s riding a five-game winning streak at the Cintas Center.
Let me walk you through why this small number actually makes perfect sense, and more importantly, which side has the value. The Bluejays limped into conference play at 5-4 after getting throttled at Nebraska (50-71) and Iowa State (60-78). Meanwhile, Xavier just took down Cincinnati in the Crosstown Shootout and hasn’t lost at home since early December. That momentum matters, especially when the statistical matchup points in one very specific direction.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Creighton Bluejays (5-4) @ Xavier Musketeers (7-3)
Date: December 17, 2025
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, OH
Spread: Xavier -2.5 to -3
Total: 150.5-151.5
Moneyline: Xavier -155, Creighton +130
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is tighter than a lot of people realize, but it’s pointing in Xavier’s direction when you account for venue. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Xavier’s defensive rating sits at 102.0 (#123 nationally) compared to Creighton’s 106.3 (#187). That’s a four-point difference per 100 possessions, which might not sound massive until you realize these teams play at different tempos. Xavier pushes the pace at 71.6 possessions per game (#85), while Creighton crawls at 67.3 (#227).
Do that math over 70 possessions in this game, and you’re looking at roughly a 2.8-point swing just from defensive efficiency. Add in home court advantage – typically worth 3-4 points in college hoops – and suddenly that -2.5 to -3 spread isn’t generous at all. It’s actually pretty efficient line-making.
Here’s what really seals it for me: Xavier ranks #3 nationally in turnover ratio at 0.1, committing just 9.1 turnovers per game (#10). That’s not just a clean stat line – it’s why Xavier can survive shooting just 42.5% from the field (#299). They don’t beat themselves with careless possessions. Creighton, meanwhile, turns it over 12.2 times per game (#184) and forces just 5.6 steals (#311). When you can’t create defensive chaos and you’re giving the ball away yourself, you’re playing with fire on the road in conference play.
Creighton’s Situation
The Bluejays entered the season with Final Four aspirations, but they’ve looked completely disjointed through nine games. Their offensive rating of 110.4 (#195) is pedestrian, and their 31.9% three-point shooting (#245) is borderline catastrophic for a program that’s built its identity on perimeter efficiency under Greg McDermott.
Josh Dix leads the scoring at 11.7 points per game, but nobody else is stepping up consistently. Owen Freeman (9.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG) should be dominating inside as a sophomore, but he’s disappeared in road games. Blake Harper provides some rebounding at 5.8 boards per game (#392 nationally), but this team desperately needs someone to create their own shot when the offense stagnates.
The recent form is alarming: losses at Iowa State, at Nebraska, and at home to Kansas State. The only wins in their last five came against Nicholls and Oregon – not exactly confidence-builders heading into a hostile Big East road environment. Creighton’s adjusted offensive efficiency (111.3, #111) suggests they’re capable of better, but they haven’t shown it when it matters.
Xavier’s Situation
Xavier’s riding high with five straight wins, and Tre Carroll is the biggest reason why. The forward is averaging 17.3 points per game (#118 nationally) and has been unstoppable in the paint lately. Roddie Anderson III adds 13.3 PPG (#500) from the backcourt, giving Xavier a legitimate one-two punch that Creighton simply can’t match right now.
What I love about this Xavier team is their ball security. That 9.1 turnovers per game mark (#10) combined with 18.5 assists (#30) tells you they’re playing smart, connected basketball. Filip Borovicanin (7.0 RPG, #175 nationally) controls the glass, and the Musketeers generate 145 points off turnovers compared to Creighton’s 99. That’s a massive advantage when you’re facing a team that’s careless with the rock.
The three-point shooting is where Xavier separates itself. They’re hitting 36.7% from deep (#73), compared to Creighton’s abysmal 31.9% (#245). In a Big East game that’ll likely feature 25-30 three-point attempts, that five-percentage-point gap is absolutely massive. That’s the difference between making 9 threes and making 11 – a six-point swing right there.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on ball security and perimeter shooting. Xavier forces just 5.6 steals per game, so they’re not going to turn Creighton over with pressure. But Creighton turns it over anyway – 12.2 times per game without being forced. That’s self-inflicted damage, and Xavier’s going to convert those mistakes into easy baskets. The Musketeers score 145 points off turnovers already this season; expect that number to climb Tuesday night.
The three-point matchup is equally lopsided. Creighton defends the arc reasonably well (32.5% allowed, #169), but Xavier’s shooting 36.7% from three (#73) with confidence. Meanwhile, Creighton’s attempting threes at 31.9% (#245), and Xavier defends it at 31.1% (#113). The math is ugly for the Bluejays: they can’t make threes, and Xavier can. Over 25 combined three-point attempts, that’s a 7-8 point swing.
I keep coming back to those turnover numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Xavier’s #3 nationally in turnover ratio; Creighton’s #184. That’s not a small gap – that’s a chasm. And when you combine Xavier’s ball security with their ability to capitalize on opponent mistakes (145 points off turnovers), you’ve got a recipe for a comfortable home win.
The pace favors Xavier too. They want to play at 71.6 possessions (#85); Creighton prefers 67.3 (#227). At home, Xavier controls that tempo, and more possessions mean more opportunities for Creighton to self-destruct with turnovers.
My Play
The Pick: Xavier -2.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m laying the short number with the Musketeers at home. The efficiency gap is real, the turnover disparity is massive, and Xavier’s three-point shooting gives them a clear path to covering this small spread. Creighton’s been a disaster on the road, and nothing in their recent form suggests they’re ready to flip the script in a tough Big East environment.
The main risk here is if Creighton suddenly rediscovers their shooting touch and hits 8-9 threes. They’re capable of getting hot – we’ve seen it before under McDermott. But I’ve considered all of that, and the turnover differential is still too massive to ignore. Xavier’s going to get 8-10 extra possessions from Creighton mistakes, and that’s enough to win by a field goal even if the shooting stays mediocre.
I’m projecting Xavier 78, Creighton 73. The Musketeers control the tempo, protect the ball, and hit enough threes to keep Creighton at arm’s length. This isn’t a blowout – it’s a workmanlike Big East home win that covers the -2.5 with room to spare. Lock it in.
