The market is overreacting to Penn’s 10-2 home record, and Bryan Bash is smelling a trap, grabbing the +7.5 with a gritty Dartmouth squad that refuses to get blown out on the road.
The Setup: Dartmouth at Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s laying 7.5 at the Palestra on Friday night against Dartmouth, and the market’s telling you this is a comfortable home win for the Quakers. I’m not buying it. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread feels inflated by Penn’s 10-2 home record rather than what these teams actually look like under the hood. The Big Green are 9-3 ATS on the road this season and 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. Meanwhile, Penn sits at just 6-5 ATS at home. The adjusted efficiency gap here is 5.6 points in Penn’s favor—add the standard 2.2 for home court, and you’re looking at a market that’s spotted Penn an extra 3-4 points based on narrative rather than numbers.
Here’s the thing: Dartmouth ranks #222 in adjusted offensive efficiency and #249 defensively, while Penn checks in at #202 and #146 respectively. That’s a real gap, don’t get me wrong. But when you’re getting 7.5 points with a team that’s been covering consistently away from home against a squad that’s been middling ATS at the Palestra, you’ve got to pay attention. This is an Ivy League game in late February, and both teams are hovering around .500 in conference play. The intensity’s there, but the talent gap? Not as wide as this number suggests.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Dartmouth Big Green (11-13) at Pennsylvania Quakers (13-11)
Date: Friday, February 27, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: The Palestra, Philadelphia, PA
Conference: Ivy League
Spread: Pennsylvania -7.5
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: Pennsylvania -320, Dartmouth +260
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market’s giving Penn 7.5 points here, and I can trace exactly where that’s coming from—and why it’s wrong. Penn’s defensive rating of 107.6 ranks #146 nationally, which is legitimately solid. Dartmouth’s 112.4 defensive rating at #249 is legitimately bad. That’s a 4.8-point gap on that side of the ball, and it’s real. But here’s where the market’s overreacting: Penn’s offensive rating is just 107.4 (#202), barely a point better than Dartmouth’s 106.6 (#222). This isn’t a dominant offensive team exploiting a weak defense—it’s a mediocre offense hoping to take advantage.
The pace projection here is 68.8 possessions, right in line with both teams’ season averages. Neither squad is going to speed this up or slow it down dramatically. At that tempo, we’re looking at a game decided in the 72-76 point range for each side. The model projects Penn to score 75.6 and Dartmouth 73.7—a 1.9-point margin before home court. Add the 2.2 for the Palestra, and you get to around 4 points. The market’s at 7.5. That’s a 3.5-point cushion you’re getting with the Big Green, and in a conference game between two teams separated by just two games in the standings, that matters.
Penn’s 6-1 SU in their last seven home games, sure. But they’re also 1-10 to the under at home this season. This team wins ugly at the Palestra—they grind, they defend, but they don’t blow people out. Dartmouth’s been in every road game lately, covering five straight away from Hanover. The trends are screaming that this stays close.
Dartmouth Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Dartmouth’s offensive identity is clear: they shoot threes at an elite clip (36.8%, #41 nationally) and they take care of the ball reasonably well with just 12.5 turnovers per game. The problem is they can’t rebound their own misses—24.8% offensive rebounding rate ranks #347 in the country. That’s brutal. But against Penn’s 32.0% offensive rebounding rate (#128), we’re not looking at a team that’s going to dominate the glass either. This becomes a possession-by-possession battle where Dartmouth’s three-point shooting keeps them in it.
Kareem Thomas is the engine here, averaging 20.0 PPG (#34 nationally). That’s a legitimate go-to scorer who can create his own shot. Brandon Mitchell-Day adds 12.9 PPG and 8.9 RPG (#53), giving them a legitimate interior presence. Connor Amundsen chips in 10.7 PPG from the guard spot. This isn’t a deep team, but the top three can score enough to hang around, especially when they’re knocking down threes at nearly 37%.
The Big Green are averaging 76.0 PPG overall but just 73.2 in conference play. They’ve struggled at home (1-5 ATS in their last six at Dartmouth) but thrived on the road (9-3 ATS overall, 5-0 ATS in conference road games). This is a team that plays better with its back against the wall away from home, and that profile fits perfectly as a road dog here.
Pennsylvania Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Penn’s strength is defensive consistency—107.0 defensive rating (#156) isn’t elite, but it’s solid enough to keep games in the 70s. The problem is their offense has been stuck in neutral lately. They’re shooting just 44.4% from the field (#228) and a disastrous 69.2% from the free throw line (#281). That free throw percentage is a killer in close games, and this projects to be exactly that kind of game.
Ethan Roberts leads the way at 18.0 PPG (#90), and TJ Power adds 15.0 PPG with 7.6 RPG (#118). That’s a solid one-two punch, but the drop-off is steep. Michael Zanoni (10.5 PPG) and Dalton Scantlebury (8.1 PPG) are role players, not difference-makers. Penn’s 32.0% offensive rebounding rate gives them second-chance opportunities, and that’s been their edge at home—grinding out possessions and winning the 50-50 balls.
The Quakers are 10-2 at home but just 3-9 on the road. They’re a completely different team at the Palestra, where they’ve won six of their last seven. But look at those wins: 82-76 over Cornell, 76-67 over Columbia, 61-60 over Princeton. These aren’t blowouts. They’re grinding out close wins, and the 1-10 under record at home tells you everything—Penn plays slow, defensive basketball that keeps opponents in striking distance.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three-point shooting and possessions. Dartmouth’s 36.8% from three (#41) against Penn’s 32.1% three-point defense (#87) is a legitimate mismatch. The Big Green have the shooters to exploit Penn’s perimeter defense, and in a 69-possession game, that’s 8-10 three-point attempts that could swing the outcome.
Penn’s offensive rebounding edge (7.2 percentage points better than Dartmouth) gives them extra possessions, but they’re not efficient enough offensively to capitalize consistently. Their 69.2% free throw shooting means late-game fouling actually helps Dartmouth, not Penn. And the head-to-head history is instructive: Penn’s 5-0 SU in their last five home games against Dartmouth, but four of those six meetings went over, meaning these games stay competitive and high-scoring.
The model projects a total of 149.3, which is 4.2 points under the market’s 153.5. That’s significant. Both teams have been playing under lately—Penn’s 1-10 to the under at home, Dartmouth’s 3-7 to the under at home. But the head-to-head trend says over. I’m leaning toward the game staying under 153.5 because both teams are grinding through conference play, and the tempo projects to just 68.8 possessions. That’s not enough runway to hit 154 unless someone gets hot from three.
Bash’s Best Bet
Dartmouth +7.5 (-110)
I’m taking the Big Green and the points. Penn’s a solid home team, but they’re not a covering machine at the Palestra (6-5 ATS), and Dartmouth’s been money on the road (9-3 ATS, 5-0 ATS in their last five). The adjusted efficiency gap says this should be a 4-point game, and the market’s giving you an extra 3.5 points of cushion. That’s real value.
Dartmouth’s three-point shooting (36.8%) is the great equalizer here. They’ve got the perimeter weapons to keep pace with Penn’s methodical offense, and in a game projected for 69 possessions, every three-pointer matters. Penn’s free throw shooting (69.2%) is a liability down the stretch, and the Big Green have shown they can hang in hostile environments.
The trends back this up: Dartmouth’s 0-5 ATS in their last five against Penn, but they’re 5-0 ATS in their last five road games overall. Something’s gotta give, and I’m betting on the team that’s been covering consistently away from home rather than the home team that’s been grinding out narrow wins. Give me Dartmouth +7.5, and I’ll sleep just fine knowing I’ve got the better number.
