Robbie Avila and Saint Louis are on a five-game tear, while Dayton is reeling from structural issues on the road. Can Javon Bennett’s 16.2 PPG keep the Flyers within the point spread, or will the Billikens’ rebounding advantage turn this into a slaughter?
The Setup: Dayton at Saint Louis
Saint Louis is laying 11 to 11.5 points at home against Dayton on Friday night, and this number tells you everything about how the market views these two A-10 programs right now. The Billikens are rolling at 8-1, winners of five straight, while the Flyers have dropped three of their last four and look completely lost on the road. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t just justified—it might be conservative. Saint Louis ranks 22nd nationally in adjusted net efficiency at plus-18.9, while Dayton sits at 98th with a plus-7.4 mark. That’s an 11.5-point gap in adjusted efficiency, which means the market nailed this number. The Billikens are playing elite basketball on both ends right now, and Dayton’s three-game skid has exposed some serious structural problems that don’t magically fix themselves on the road.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: January 30, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Chaifetz Arena, St. Louis, MO
Bovada:
Point Spread: Saint Louis -11
Over/Under: 151
Moneyline: Saint Louis -750, Dayton +500
DraftKings:
Point Spread: Saint Louis -11.5
Over/Under: 151.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The spread sits at 11 to 11.5 depending on your book, and the efficiency data backs it up completely. Saint Louis ranks 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.2 and 29th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 98.2. Those are top-40 marks on both ends, which puts them in legitimate at-large NCAA Tournament conversation. Dayton checks in at 133rd offensively and 76th defensively—respectable on defense, but that offense has been anemic lately. The Flyers are averaging just 79.3 points per game, ranking 151st nationally, and their shooting percentages are mediocre across the board.
The tempo factor matters here too. Saint Louis plays at the 17th-fastest pace in the country at 74.8 possessions per game, while Dayton crawls at 235th nationally with a 67.1 pace. That seven-possession gap per game is massive, and it favors the home team significantly. The Billikens want to push tempo, get out in transition—they’ve got 185 fast break points already this season—and force Dayton to play faster than they’re comfortable. When you’re the better team AND you control the pace, double-digit spreads start making a lot of sense.
The total at 151 to 151.5 also tracks with the efficiency numbers. Saint Louis averages 91.6 points per game (13th nationally) while allowing just 69.6 (102nd). Dayton scores 79.3 and allows 72.0. Do the math on a neutral projection and you’re landing right around 152-153 points. The market got this one right.
Dayton Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s find something positive for the Flyers, because they’re not completely hopeless. The defense still has some teeth—they rank 96th in defensive efficiency at 100.3, and they generate turnovers at an elite level with 9.8 steals per game, 28th nationally. Javon Bennett leads the way at 16.2 points per game, and De’Shayne Montgomery adds 15.4. Those two guards can create offense when things break down.
But here’s the problem: Dayton can’t shoot well enough to survive on the road against elite competition. They’re hitting just 33.2% from three-point range, 196th nationally, and their opponent three-point defense is absolutely brutal at 40.1%, ranking 359th in the country. That’s bottom-10 stuff. You can’t give up that many open threes and expect to hang around against a team shooting 50.7% from the field overall.
The rebounding is also a disaster. Dayton ranks 327th in rebounds per game at just 32.5 and 312th in offensive rebounding percentage. Against a Saint Louis team that ranks 11th nationally with 43.4 boards per game, that’s a recipe for getting dominated on the glass and giving up second-chance points all night.
Saint Louis Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Billikens are absolutely rolling right now, and the numbers explain why. They rank 28th nationally in field goal percentage at 50.7% and first in the entire country in free throw shooting at 81.3%. That free throw shooting is a massive edge in close games, and it speaks to their offensive discipline and execution. They’re not just jacking threes—they’re getting quality looks inside, ranking 25th in effective field goal percentage at 58.4%.
The defense is even more impressive. Saint Louis allows just 37.2% shooting from the field, 12th nationally, and holds opponents to 28.1% from three, 34th in the country. They’re elite at contesting shots and forcing difficult looks. The defensive efficiency ranking of 27th at 92.9 puts them among the best defensive teams in college basketball.
Robbie Avila anchors things in the middle at 12.4 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures. Dion Brown adds 12.4 and 6.7 rebounds, Trey Green chips in 12.3, and the depth just keeps coming. When you’ve got that kind of balance and you’re playing at home, laying 11 doesn’t feel scary at all.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two places: the glass and the three-point line. Saint Louis ranks 11th in rebounding while Dayton sits 327th. That’s not a mismatch—that’s a slaughter waiting to happen. The Billikens are going to dominate the offensive glass, create second-chance opportunities, and extend possessions. Dayton’s going to get one shot and watch Saint Louis push in transition.
The three-point defense is even more critical. Dayton ranks 359th in opponent three-point percentage at 40.1%. Saint Louis doesn’t live by the three—they shoot just 35.5% themselves—but when you’re getting wide-open looks because the defense can’t rotate, you’re going to knock them down. The Billikens have the ball movement (17.7 assists per game, 39th nationally) to exploit that weakness all night.
The pace battle also heavily favors Saint Louis. They want to play fast, Dayton wants to slow it down, and the home team almost always wins that battle. The Billikens are going to push tempo off makes and misses, get out in transition, and turn this into a track meet. Dayton’s offensive efficiency plummets when they’re forced to play faster than their comfort zone, and that’s exactly what’s going to happen at Chaifetz Arena.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 11.5 with Saint Louis and feeling good about it. The efficiency gap is real, the matchup advantages are massive, and Dayton is reeling right now with three losses in four games. The Flyers can’t shoot, can’t rebound, and can’t defend the three-point line. Saint Louis does all three things at an elite level, they’re playing at home, and they control the pace.
The only concern is whether Saint Louis takes their foot off the gas late, but this is a conference game with NCAA Tournament implications. The Billikens need to keep building their resume, and running up the score against a struggling Dayton team helps their efficiency metrics. I expect Saint Louis to win this game by 15-18 points. Take the Billikens and don’t overthink it.
Pick: Saint Louis -11.5
