The Redbirds host a struggling Drake squad that has dropped two straight and is dealing with a sprained ankle to Eli Shetlar. Our betting preview analyzes the 40-place gap in adjusted defensive efficiency to provide an ATS pick for this Missouri Valley battle.
The Setup: Drake at Illinois State
Illinois State is laying 9.5 points at home against Drake, and if you’re looking at this line thinking it’s a bit steep for a Missouri Valley Conference matchup, you’re not alone. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread starts making a whole lot more sense. The Redbirds check in at 72nd nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a 10.0 rating, while Drake sits at 111th with a 5.6 mark. That’s nearly a five-point gap right there before we even factor in home court. Illinois State’s defensive profile—57th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 101.7—gives them a legitimate edge against a Drake squad that’s been losing ground lately. The Bulldogs have dropped two straight, including an ugly 17-point home loss to Bradley, and now they’re walking into CEFCU Arena where the Redbirds are 8-2 overall. The market isn’t being reckless here. It’s being realistic about a significant talent and efficiency gap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Drake at Illinois State
Date: February 6, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: CEFCU Arena, Normal, IL
Spread: Illinois State -9.5
Total: 144.5
Moneyline: Illinois State -525, Drake +375
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about why we’re looking at a near-double-digit spread in a conference game. The adjusted efficiency gap tells most of the story—Illinois State’s 111.7 adjusted offensive rating ranks 101st nationally, while Drake checks in at 121st with a 110.8 mark. That’s essentially a wash offensively, but the defensive chasm is where this line gets built. The Redbirds’ 101.7 adjusted defensive efficiency is 57th in the country. Drake? They’re 119th at 105.2. That’s a real difference, and it shows up in the raw numbers too. Illinois State allows just 65.9 points per game (45th nationally), while Drake gives up 65.4 (36th). Wait, Drake’s better defensively in raw numbers? Not so fast. Context matters here—Drake plays at a glacial 65.7 pace (275th), while Illinois State pushes it slightly more at 67.7 (204th). When you adjust for tempo and strength of schedule, the Redbirds’ defense is legitimately better.
The total sitting at 144.5 makes perfect sense given these two slow-it-down offenses. Drake’s offensive rating of 116.7 ranks just 107th, and when you combine two teams that both rank outside the top 200 in pace, you’re not getting a track meet. The market expects somewhere around 72-73 points for Illinois State and 64-65 for Drake. That tracks with season averages and the efficiency data.
Drake Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Drake does exactly one thing at an elite level: they don’t turn the ball over. The Bulldogs rank 3rd nationally in turnover ratio at 0.1 and give it away just 8.8 times per game (6th). That’s their lifeline in every game—Jalen Quinn runs the show with 3.8 assists per game, and this team takes care of the rock. Their defensive numbers look solid on the surface—39.6% opponent field goal percentage (48th) and 30.5% from three (92nd)—but remember, that’s inflated by the slow pace. They’re not creating chaos defensively with just 6.2 steals per game (266th).
The offensive profile is concerning coming into this spot. Drake’s 36.8% from three (69th) is respectable, but their 25.9% offensive rebounding rate ranks 340th nationally. That’s brutal. When you can’t get second chances and you’re playing at a snail’s pace, every possession matters. Quinn leads the way at 18.3 points per game, but after him and Okku Federiko (12.3 PPG, 6.7 RPG), the scoring drops off fast. This team needs to be perfect with the ball and efficient from deep to hang around.
Illinois State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Illinois State doesn’t blow you away in any single category, but they’re solid across the board. The Redbirds shoot 48.0% from the field (77th) and 36.4% from three (82nd), with a true shooting percentage of 58.7% that ranks 92nd. They’re balanced offensively with five guys averaging double figures, led by Johnny Kinziger and Ty’Reek Coleman at 13.0 points each. Chase Walker (11.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG) provides versatility, and the distribution of scoring makes them tough to game-plan against.
Defensively, they’re even better than Drake when you account for competition. That 28.8% opponent three-point percentage ranks 45th nationally—they don’t give up open looks from deep. The 39.9% opponent field goal mark (59th) is solid, and while they’re not blocking everything in sight at 2.5 per game (303rd), they make you work for everything. The 120.0 offensive rating (72nd) paired with the 97.6 defensive rating (54th) creates a legitimate efficiency advantage most nights.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Drake can execute in the halfcourt against a disciplined Illinois State defense. The Bulldogs’ inability to crash the offensive glass (340th in offensive rebounding percentage) is a massive problem against a Redbirds team that rebounds it at 39.8 per game (68th). Drake needs to hit threes and protect the ball, but Illinois State’s perimeter defense (45th in opponent three-point percentage) takes away the former.
The pace will favor Drake’s style—both teams want to slow it down—but that actually hurts the Bulldogs here. In a rock fight, the more efficient team usually wins, and Illinois State holds that edge on both ends when you adjust for competition. Drake’s recent form is troubling too. They’ve lost two straight, including that Bradley beatdown at home, and now they’re on the road against a better team. The head-to-head history shows Illinois State won the most recent meeting 73-56 in December, and while Drake took the previous two, those were different rosters.
The real question is whether Illinois State can push the pace just enough to get Drake uncomfortable. The Redbirds don’t need to run, but if they can get out in transition even occasionally off Drake misses, those extra possessions add up. Drake’s 6.2 steals allowed per game suggests they’re not getting burned in transition often, but Illinois State’s 120.0 offensive rating says they can score when they get chances.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with Illinois State -9.5. Look, I get the hesitation with double-digit spreads in conference games, but the efficiency gap is real here. Drake’s offense ranks 121st in adjusted efficiency, their offensive rebounding is atrocious, and they’re walking into a tough road spot after two straight losses. Illinois State’s defense is legitimately good—57th in adjusted defensive efficiency—and they’ve got enough offensive balance to pull away in the second half.
Drake will keep it close for a while because they don’t turn it over, but in a game where possessions are limited and efficiency matters most, the Redbirds have too many advantages. I expect something like 75-63, which covers the 9.5 comfortably. The total at 144.5 is tempting to go under given both teams’ pace, but I’m staying away. Give me the home team with the better defense and more efficient offense. Illinois State covers.
