Tuesday night’s ACC showdown features a massive efficiency chasm between Duke’s #1-ranked adjusted defense and a Notre Dame squad currently missing 32 points per game of production. Based on current roster availability and a 29.3-point net rating gap, the Blue Devils remain the authoritative pick for bettors prioritizing efficiency mismatches over historical home-court trends.
The Setup: Duke at Notre Dame
Duke’s laying 17.5 at Purcell Pavilion on Tuesday night, and if you’re wondering whether the market is giving Notre Dame too much credit for playing at home, let me stop you right there. The Irish are getting absolutely demolished by injuries, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread might actually be generous to the home team. Cameron Boozer and the top-ranked Blue Devils bring a suffocating defense—#1 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 89.4—into South Bend against a Notre Dame squad that just lost its two best players to injury. The model projects Duke by 25, which means we’re looking at a 7.5-point gap between market and math. That’s not a typo.
Notre Dame’s already struggling season just went from bad to catastrophic. Markus Burton (18.5 PPG, 3.7 APG) is out for the remainder of the season with an ankle injury, and Jalen Haralson (13.9 PPG) is also sidelined. That’s 32.4 points per game sitting on the bench against the nation’s best defensive team. Duke’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #5 nationally at 127.0, and they’re facing a Notre Dame defense that ranks #96. The Irish are 2-8 in their last 10 games and getting worse, not better.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: #1 Duke (25-2) at Notre Dame (12-15)
Date: Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Purcell Pavilion at the Joyce Center, South Bend, IN
Conference: ACC
Spread: Duke -17.5
Total: 140/140.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame +1150 | Duke -3500
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed at Duke -17.5, and I’m telling you right now—that’s light. The adjusted efficiency gap here is 37.6 points in Duke’s favor when you measure net rating. Duke sits at +37.6 (offense #5, defense #1), while Notre Dame checks in at +8.3 (offense #95, defense #96). That’s a 29.3-point chasm in pure efficiency, and we haven’t even factored in the injury devastation yet.
Here’s what the market is banking on: home court advantage and the assumption that Duke might coast in a road conference game against an overmatched opponent. The pace projection sits at 66.1 possessions—neither team pushes tempo aggressively—so this won’t be a track meet. Duke averages 67.2 possessions per game (#180 nationally), while Notre Dame sits at 65.0 (#272). When you blend those numbers with the efficiency ratings, you get a projected margin around 25 points, not 17.5.
The total at 140 is equally suspect. The model projects 159 points, which creates a 19-point gap. Duke’s offensive rating of 122.8 (#24) should feast against Notre Dame’s 109.7 defensive rating (#221). Even in a slower-paced game, the Blue Devils have enough firepower to push this over by themselves. Duke’s averaging 82.4 PPG while allowing just 63.1 (#3 nationally). Notre Dame’s averaging 74.4 PPG but giving up 73.4. The math doesn’t support a 140-point total.
Duke Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Cameron Boozer (23.0 PPG, 9.9 RPG) is the centerpiece of everything Duke does offensively, ranking #3 nationally in scoring. But the real story is the defense. Duke holds opponents to 39.2% shooting (#9) and 30.7% from three (#34). Their 93.8 defensive rating ranks #3 nationally, and when you adjust for strength of schedule, they’re the best defensive team in college basketball.
The Blue Devils shoot 50.0% from the field (#17) with an effective field goal percentage of 57.5% (#15). They don’t turn the ball over—just 10.8 per game (#102)—and they maintain a 1.56 assist-to-turnover ratio. Isaiah Evans (12.2 PPG) and Patrick Ngongba II (11.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) provide secondary scoring, but this team wins with suffocating defense and controlled possessions.
Duke’s 15-11-1 ATS on the season, but they’re 6-3 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against Notre Dame. They’ve won five straight in this series, and the total has gone under in five straight meetings at Purcell Pavilion. Duke’s last five games have all stayed under the total, and they just held Michigan to 63 points in a five-point win.
Notre Dame Breakdown: The Counterpoint
What counterpoint? Notre Dame just lost Burton and Haralson, and there’s no sugar-coating what that means. Braeden Shrewsberry (10.5 PPG) and Cole Certa (8.7 PPG) are now expected to carry the offensive load, and neither player is built for that role. The Irish rank #192 in offensive rating (110.4) and #221 in defensive rating (109.7). They’re 3-11 in ACC play and averaging a -5.79 point differential in conference games.
Notre Dame’s 14-13 ATS overall, which looks respectable until you realize they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. They’re 7-7 ATS at home this season, but they’re 0-5 straight up in their last five games against Duke and 0-5 SU in their last five home games against Duke. The total has gone under in five straight home meetings with Duke, which tells you these games turn into defensive slogs where Notre Dame can’t score.
The Irish shoot 44.9% from the field (#199) and post a 52.5% effective field goal percentage (#155). They’re not efficient, they’re not deep, and now they’re not healthy. Carson Towt (5.9 PPG, 10.1 RPG) provides rebounding, but he’s not a scoring threat. Notre Dame’s offensive rating in their last 10 games is 76.4 with a defensive rating of 82.4. That’s a -6.0 differential, and it’s getting worse.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This gets decided in the first 10 minutes when Duke establishes defensive dominance and Notre Dame realizes they don’t have the personnel to keep pace. Duke’s #1 adjusted defensive efficiency against Notre Dame’s #95 adjusted offensive efficiency is a mismatch of epic proportions. The Blue Devils hold opponents to a 10.73-point shooting percentage differential (49.97% offense vs. 39.24% defense allowed). Notre Dame’s differential is just 1.35 points (44.89% vs. 43.54%).
Duke dominates the assist-to-turnover battle (1.56 vs. 1.08), and they’re better on the glass despite Notre Dame’s slight edge in offensive rebounding percentage. The Blue Devils grab 11.85 offensive boards per game and 27.78 defensive boards. Notre Dame sits at 11.41 and 25.59. Duke controls tempo, controls possessions, and controls the glass.
The head-to-head history is brutal for Notre Dame. Duke’s 9-1 straight up in the last 10 meetings, averaging 77.8 PPG while holding the Irish to 64.6. Duke shoots 48.52% in this series while Notre Dame manages just 40.67%. The Blue Devils out-rebound Notre Dame 39.2 to 31.3 in these matchups. Without Burton and Haralson, those gaps become chasms.
Bash’s Best Bet
Duke -17.5
I’m laying the points with Duke, and I’m not overthinking it. The model says 25, the market says 17.5, and Notre Dame just lost its two best players. Duke’s won five straight in this series, they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to South Bend, and they bring the nation’s best adjusted defense against a depleted opponent that can’t score.
The injury situation eliminates any hope of Notre Dame keeping this competitive. Burton and Haralson combined for 32.4 PPG, and you don’t replace that production overnight against a team that allows 63.1 points per game. Duke’s defensive efficiency will suffocate whatever’s left of Notre Dame’s offense, and Cameron Boozer will control the paint on both ends.
I’m also interested in the under 140.5 as a secondary play. These teams have gone under in five straight meetings at Purcell Pavilion, Duke’s gone under in five straight road games, and the pace projects to just 66 possessions. Even if Duke scores 80, Notre Dame would need 61 to push this over, and I don’t see where those points come from without their top two scorers.
Duke -17.5. Book it.
