Expert Prediction: Villanova vs. St. John’s – Who Has the Edge?

by | Jan 20, 2023 | cbb

Villanova (9-10 SU 6-13 ATS) vs. St. John’s (13-6 SU 11-8 ATS)
When: Friday, January 20th: 7:00 ET
Where: Madison Square Garden New York, NY
TV: FS1
Point Spread: VILL +4/STJOHN -4 (Why bet on games at -110 when you could be laying only -105 at BetAnySports Sportsbook? Home of Reduced Juice Wagering!)
Total: 150.0
Money Line: Villanova Wildcats +149/St. John’s Red Storm -185

The Villanova Wildcats are off a harder-than-expected four-point win overly lowly Georgetown and now travel to New York to take on St. John’s Red Storm. The Storm must be feeling pretty good about themselves, fresh off two victories over UConn and Butler. They’ll look to keep the win and the spread streak (three ATS wins) going tonight, laying -4. The tip-off for the match at Madison Square Gardens is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET.

Line Movement

The Red Storm has been getting public support driving the line up to as high as -4.5. Up a full point from its opener of -3.5. The total line was originally posted at 151.5 points and has slipped to 149.5 on most boards at the time of writing.

Last Game Info

Villanova is coming off a 77-73 win over Georgetown. However, they did not cover the spread in the game as -13.5 point favorites. The combined 150 points finished above the 142.5 total line.

St. John’s will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Connecticut by a score of 85-74. The Red Storm also picked up an ATS victory as they were +14 point underdogs. The combined 159 points finished above the 152 total line.

Current Form

Villanova
Over their last five games, Villanova has a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wildcats’ offense averages 73.2 points per game while hitting 45.6% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 49.2% from the field while allowing 74.4 points per contest.

St. John’s
In their previous five contests, St. John’s is 2-3 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 78.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 49.2%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 48.2% of their shots while giving up 80.4 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Villanova’s opponents comes in at 78.9. On the other side, St. John’s combined opponent power rating sits at 79.1.

How Does Villanova Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Wildcats have played nine road games and have a record of 3-6. In these contests, Villanova is 4-5 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 69.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.3%. On defense, the Wildcats are allowing 68.9 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 43.0% in these games.

How Does St. John’s Fare At Home?

In their 12 games at home, St. John’s has a 7-5 record vs. the spread while going 10-2 straight-up. On offense, the Red Storm are shooting 48.1% on their home floor, leading to 81.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 41.6% in these contests. The St. John’s defense is allowing 69.2 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Villanova is averaging 72.6 points per game (158th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 43.7%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a St. John’s defense that has allowed an average of 72.4 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 43.6% of their shots vs. St. John’s. On the other side, the St. John’s Red Storm are coming into the game averaging 79.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.3%. The Red Storm will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 69.4 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 45.1% of their shots vs. the Wildcats.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Villanova has a shooting percentage of 35.9% while ranking 161st in attempts per game. The Wildcats will be facing a St. John’s defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 33.8%. St. John’s enters the game having hit 33.5% of their looks from deep while averaging 7.25 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Villanova has allowed opponents to hit 35.5% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Villanova

  • Justin Moore (Out) Achilles
  • Jordan Longino (Out) Hamstring
  • Nnanna Njoku (Out) Foot

St. John’s

  • Montez Mathis (Out) Toe

Pick Against The Spread

Nova has been struggling with only two wins in their last seven games, and both came against Georgetown. The win over the Hoyas is their only conference road win to go with three losses – UConn by 8, DePaul by 10, and Butler by 8. Villanova did win its earlier match against St. John’s 78-65, but that was at home. The Red Storm come into this game sizzling hot over their last three, starting with a near-upset road win over an excellent Providence team and a home thrashing of Butler by 15 and then following that up with a massive 85-74 road upset of UConn as a 13.5 point dog! The big difference for the team is the return to health of Guard Rafael Pinzon, who has scored in double digits in the last three games. Take St. John’s -4. Bet your college hoops predictions for FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!