Liberty hasn’t lost in over 70 days, but don’t tell the oddsmakers this is a cakewalk. The Panthers are 13-9 ATS this season and gave the Flames everything they could handle in an overtime classic earlier this year. Looking at the efficiency math, the best bet relies on Corey Stephenson’s ability to replicate his 17.7 PPG average.
The Setup: Florida International at Liberty
Liberty’s laying 11 at home against Florida International on Thursday night, and if you’re eyeing the Panthers getting double digits, I get the appeal. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t just justified—it might be light. The Flames are rolling at 22-3 with a +9.0 adjusted net rating that ranks 87th nationally, while FIU sits at 12-13 with a -1.8 net rating at 196th. That’s a 10.8-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and Liberty’s been an absolute buzzsaw in conference play, going 14-0 in CUSA with wins coming by an average of 8.3 points. The Panthers are 2-8 on the road and just 5-9 in conference games. This isn’t a trap—it’s a quality gap.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Florida International Panthers (12-13) at Liberty Flames (22-3)
Date: Thursday, February 19, 2026
Time: 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Liberty Arena, Lynchburg, VA
Conference: CUSA
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Liberty -11 to -11.5
- Total: 152.5 to 153.5
- Moneyline: Liberty -750, Florida International +500
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on Liberty -11, and the efficiency model projects a 15.7-point margin for the Flames. That’s a 4.7-point discrepancy, which suggests the market might be giving FIU too much credit. Let’s break down why this number should be higher. Liberty ranks 57th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 117.7, while FIU’s adjusted defense sits at 176th nationally at 109.0. That’s an 8.7-point offensive advantage for the Flames against a defense that’s allowed 77.8 points per game overall and 85.6 points per game to road opponents. Meanwhile, FIU’s 107.2 adjusted offense (211th nationally) faces a Liberty defense ranked 166th at 108.6. The Panthers score 81.6 per game, but that’s inflated by their 72.0 pace that ranks 15th nationally. Liberty plays at a glacial 64.2 pace (309th), which means fewer possessions and fewer chances for FIU to exploit their tempo advantage.
The projected pace blend of 68.1 possessions favors Liberty’s style completely. When you slow down a team that thrives on chaos and transition—FIU ranks 10th nationally in steals per game at 9.6—you neutralize their primary weapon. The Flames are methodical, efficient, and elite at taking care of the ball. Their 8.5 turnovers per game rank 2nd nationally, and their 2.06 assist-to-turnover ratio dwarfs FIU’s 1.19 mark. This isn’t a game where the Panthers can create easy offense off mistakes.
Florida International Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
FIU’s got some juice offensively, no question. They’re scoring 81.6 per game behind a 51.8% effective field goal percentage (185th) and a 35.5% three-point clip (95th). Corey Stephenson is their engine, averaging 17.5 points and 7.6 rebounds, while Julian Mackey adds 13.4 points and Zawdie Jackson chips in 10.6 points with 3.6 assists. The Panthers can push tempo—they rank 15th in pace—and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass with a 33.9% offensive rebound rate that ranks 53rd nationally.
But here’s the problem: they’re 2-8 on the road, and their defensive numbers away from home are brutal. They’re allowing 85.6 points per game in road contests, and their 104.9 defensive rating (107th nationally) isn’t good enough to slow down elite offensive teams. They’ve also gone 3-19 straight up in their last 22 road games, which tells you everything about their inability to win away from home. The Panthers are 13-9 against the spread this season, but that’s been fueled by home performances where they’re 8-4 ATS. On the road? They’re 5-5 ATS, and most of those covers came against inferior competition.
Liberty Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Liberty is everything FIU isn’t: disciplined, efficient, and dominant at home. The Flames are 12-1 at Liberty Arena and 6-0 in conference home games. Their 52.1% field goal percentage ranks 2nd nationally, and their 61.7% effective field goal percentage also ranks 2nd. They’re shooting 40.2% from three (3rd nationally) and posting a 63.8% true shooting percentage (3rd nationally). Brett Decker Jr. leads the way with 19.6 points per game, but this is a balanced attack. Kaden Metheny (14.1 PPG), JJ Harper (11.4 PPG), and Colin Porter (11.3 PPG) all contribute, and Zach Cleveland is a stat-stuffing machine with 10.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 8.4 assists per game.
The Flames’ 121.3 offensive rating ranks 33rd nationally, and they’re elite at protecting the ball with just 8.5 turnovers per game. They’re on a 10-game winning streak and haven’t lost since January 8th. In conference play, they’re 14-0 and allowing just 69.6 points per game to CUSA opponents. The only concern? They’re 11-11 against the spread overall and just 5-5 ATS at home. They’ve failed to cover in three of their last four home games, losing ATS to Missouri State (-9.5), Delaware (-10.5), and New Mexico State (-3.5). That’s worth noting, but those were all wins, and Liberty’s still finding ways to grind out victories even when they don’t blow teams out.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and shooting efficiency. FIU wants to run, create chaos, and force turnovers. Liberty wants to slow it down, execute in the halfcourt, and exploit their massive shooting advantage. The Flames hold an 8.2-percentage-point edge in true shooting and a 9.9-point edge in effective field goal percentage. That’s enormous. FIU’s 68.0% free throw percentage (317th nationally) is also a liability late in games, while Liberty shoots 70.0% from the stripe.
The Panthers do have a rebounding edge—they grab 38.4 boards per game (55th) compared to Liberty’s 30.0 (357th)—and their 33.9% offensive rebound rate is significantly better than Liberty’s 19.3%. But in the head-to-head history, Liberty’s won four of the last five meetings, including a 97-94 win at FIU earlier this season and dominant home victories of 58-45 and 82-59 in previous years. The Flames know how to neutralize FIU’s tempo, and they’ve got the personnel to do it again.
Liberty’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.06 compared to FIU’s 1.19 is the stat that jumps off the page. The Flames take care of the ball, move it efficiently, and don’t give FIU’s defense easy opportunities to create transition buckets. The Panthers rank 10th in steals, but they’re facing a team that simply doesn’t turn it over. That’s a nightmare matchup for FIU’s preferred style.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Liberty -11 without hesitation. The efficiency model projects a 15.7-point win, and I think that’s closer to reality than the market number. FIU’s 2-8 on the road, 5-9 in conference play, and getting outclassed by a Liberty team that’s 14-0 in CUSA and playing with supreme confidence. The Flames’ shooting efficiency is elite, their ball security is impeccable, and they’re going to control the pace from start to finish. FIU’s tempo advantage disappears when Liberty slows this game to 68 possessions, and the Panthers don’t have the halfcourt offense to keep up. Liberty wins by 15-plus and covers comfortably. Lock it in.
