Sam Houston enters Thursday’s matchup with a clear efficiency edge, but Bryan Bash’s best bet focuses on the massive 9-point discrepancy between the model’s projection and the inflated 164.5 market total.
The Setup: Florida International at Sam Houston
Sam Houston’s laying 6.5 at home against Florida International on Thursday night, and I’m already seeing the hesitation. A 13-14 team getting nearly a touchdown from a 19-8 squad? Seems straightforward, right? But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line is telling a more complicated story than the records suggest. The Bearkats check in at #107 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a +6.0 rating, while FIU sits at #193 with a -1.5 mark. That’s a 7.5-point gap in pure efficiency terms, yet the market’s asking for 6.5 points. The model projects Sam Houston by 4.9, which means we’ve got a 1.6-point discrepancy that demands explanation. This isn’t some dominant home team steamrolling conference fodder—this is a CUSA battle with legitimate two-way concerns.
Here’s what matters: Sam Houston’s been an ATS machine at 18-6 overall, but they’ve lost two key rotation pieces that nobody’s talking about enough. Meanwhile, FIU comes in at 14-10 ATS despite their brutal 2-9 road record, and they’ve got injury questions of their own. The total sits at 164.5, nearly 10 points above the model’s 155.4 projection. Something’s not adding up, and that’s exactly where we need to focus.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Florida International at Sam Houston
Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum, Huntsville, TX
Conference: CUSA
Spread: Sam Houston -6.5
Total: 164.5
Moneyline: Sam Houston -300 | Florida International +250
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The spread sits at 6.5, which actually undersells Sam Houston’s efficiency advantage on paper. The Bearkats rank #93 in adjusted offensive efficiency (113.5) compared to FIU’s #209 mark (107.2). That’s a 6.3-point offensive edge. Defensively, Sam Houston checks in at #146 (107.5) versus FIU’s #166 (108.7), adding another 1.2 points of advantage. The math says this should be closer to 7.5 or 8 points before factoring in home court.
But here’s the catch: Sam Houston’s missing two key contributors. Justin Begg (9.4 PPG, 4.1 APG) is out for the season, taking away their primary facilitator who ranked #152 nationally in assists per game. Isaiah Manning (11.1 PPG) is also done for the year. That’s 20.5 points per game and their best distributor sitting on the bench. The Bearkats are 9-1 in their last 10, but they’ve been grinding out covers—they failed to cover as 7-point favorites against Jacksonville State and as 10.5-point favorites against UTEP in their last five games.
The total at 164.5 is where I’m really raising eyebrows. Both teams play at nearly identical pace (FIU 71.0, Sam Houston 71.3), ranking #29 and #25 nationally. These aren’t run-and-gun squads. The model projects 155.4 total points, and the head-to-head history backs that up—the under is 4-6 in the last six meetings between these teams, with their January matchup landing at 139 total points (Sam Houston won 76-63). FIU’s road games have gone under in 14 of their last 20 trips.
Florida International Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Panthers are 13-14, but they’re not the pushover their record suggests. They rank #9 nationally in steals per game (9.6) and #52 in rebounds per game (38.2). That defensive pressure creates havoc—they force turnovers and crash the glass. Corey Stephenson (17.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG) is their engine, ranking #108 nationally in scoring. When FIU can get out in transition off those steals, they’re dangerous—391 fast break points on the season.
The problem is consistency, especially on the road. They’re 2-9 away from home and just 6-10 in conference play. Their true shooting percentage sits at 55.6% (#200 nationally), and they’re #302 in free throw shooting at 68.5%. That’s brutal in close games. They’ve also got injury concerns with Ashton Williamson listed as questionable—he’s a key rotation piece whose availability could swing their backcourt depth.
FIU’s offensive rating of 110.0 (#203) isn’t terrible, but their defensive rating of 105.2 (#112) shows they can defend when locked in. The issue is road execution—they’re averaging just 75.5 points in their last 10 games, down from their 81.4 season average.
Sam Houston Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Bearkats are 11-1 at home and 19-8 overall, riding a strong defensive identity. They rank #56 nationally in opponent field goal percentage (41.7%) and #30 in opponent three-point percentage (30.6%). That perimeter defense is elite, which matters against a FIU team that lives on the three-ball at 35.5% (#99 nationally).
Offensively, Sam Houston spreads the wealth. Kashie Natt (11.4 PPG, 7.7 RPG) controls the glass, Po’Boigh King (10.6 PPG) provides scoring punch, and Jacobe Coleman (9.4 PPG) chips in secondary offense. But without Begg running the point, their assist numbers take a hit. They’re at 15.6 APG (#81), which is solid, but losing a 4.1 APG facilitator forces others to create.
The Bearkats’ true shooting percentage of 57.3% (#117) is significantly better than FIU’s, and their effective field goal percentage of 53.5% (#103) shows quality shot selection. They rank #15 nationally in rebounds per game (40.8), which should dominate the glass against a smaller FIU frontcourt on the road.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: rebounding, three-point defense, and FIU’s ability to create chaos. Sam Houston holds a massive 40.8 to 38.2 rebounding advantage, and that gap widens when you consider FIU’s road rebounding drops to 33.25 per game. The Bearkats should control second-chance opportunities, which is critical in a lower-possession game.
The three-point battle favors Sam Houston. They shoot 36.3% from deep (#53) while defending it at 30.6% (#30). FIU shoots 35.5% but allows 34.8% (#248), which means the Bearkats should get quality looks from distance. In their January meeting, Sam Houston hit 10 threes in the 76-63 win.
FIU’s best path to covering is forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. They rank #9 in steals, and if they can disrupt Sam Houston’s half-court offense without Begg orchestrating, they can keep this within the number. But they’re 3-20 straight up on the road in their last 23 games—that’s not a team built for hostile environments.
The pace will be moderate at 71 possessions, which limits FIU’s variance. They need chaos and extra possessions to hang around. Sam Houston’s disciplined defense and rebounding edge should grind this into exactly the type of game the home team wants.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m hammering the under 164.5 with confidence. The model projects 155.4, and everything about this matchup screams lower scoring. Both teams rank in the top 30 nationally in pace, the head-to-head history shows unders hitting 67% of the time, and FIU’s road games have gone under in 70% of recent trips. Sam Houston’s elite perimeter defense will limit FIU’s three-point volume, and without Begg facilitating, the Bearkats’ offense will be more methodical.
The spread at 6.5 is trickier. Sam Houston should win, but laying nearly a touchdown with two key players out against a team that covers 58% of the time feels dangerous. FIU’s pressure defense and ability to crash the glass keeps them within striking distance, even on the road. If I’m forced to pick the side, I lean Sam Houston -6.5 based purely on home dominance (11-1) and the efficiency gap, but the value isn’t screaming at me.
The Play: Under 164.5
This total is inflated by 9 points compared to the model, and the situational factors all point toward a grind-it-out CUSA battle. Take the under and watch two defensive-minded teams slug it out in the low 70s.
