The Gators arrive in Norman with significant momentum after a 24-point rout of Tennessee, while the Sooners look to erase the memory of a double-digit beatdown in Starkville. Bash breaks down the pace factors and turnover margins to find the sharpest ATS pick on the board.
The Setup: Florida at Oklahoma
Florida’s laying 5 to 5.5 points on the road at Oklahoma, and at first glance, this feels like a classic SEC toss-up. Two teams hovering around .500 in conference play, meeting in Norman on a Tuesday night. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t the coin flip the public perception suggests. Florida’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 9th nationally at 95.3, while Oklahoma checks in at 171st with a 107.7 mark. That’s a 12.4-point gap in adjusted defensive efficiency, and in a game projected for around 70 possessions, we’re talking about a massive structural advantage. The Gators have been an elite defensive unit all season, and they’re catching an Oklahoma team that’s struggled to stop anyone outside of cupcake matchups. I’m backing Florida here, and let me walk you through exactly why this number makes sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Florida @ Oklahoma
Date: January 13, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK
Spread: Florida -5 to -5.5
Total: 156 to 156.5
Moneyline: Florida -220, Oklahoma +180
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is too extreme to ignore. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Florida’s adjusted net efficiency sits at 19.3 (21st nationally), while Oklahoma’s is nearly half that at 9.6 (79th). But it’s the defensive side where this game gets decided. Florida’s defensive rating of 96.8 ranks 48th nationally in raw numbers, but that adjusted mark of 95.3 tells us they’ve been elite regardless of competition. Oklahoma? Their 106.5 defensive rating ranks 191st, and they’re giving up 75 points per game against a schedule that hasn’t exactly been murderer’s row.
Here’s what those numbers mean in practical terms: Florida holds opponents to 38.8% from the field (33rd nationally) and just 26.0% from three (8th in the country). That three-point defense number is borderline elite. Oklahoma shoots 33.3% from deep as a team (188th nationally), which means they’re already below-average shooters running into a defense that specializes in taking away the arc. Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at Oklahoma struggling to crack 70 points in this one.
The offensive side is closer than you’d think. Oklahoma’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 117.3 ranks 38th, slightly ahead of Florida’s 114.6 mark at 69th. But Florida’s pace at 74.3 possessions per game (25th) should push this game into the mid-70s possession-wise, which favors their style. The Gators want to run, rebound, and suffocate you defensively. That’s their formula.
Florida’s Situation
The Gators are coming off a dominant 91-67 win over Tennessee, and they’ve won four of their last five with the only loss coming by two points at Missouri. What makes Florida dangerous is their rebounding dominance – they rank 1st nationally in rebounds per game at 47.2 and 31st in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.0%. That’s not just a volume stat – it’s why Florida generates 312 points in the paint despite shooting just 43.3% from the field overall.
Thomas Haugh leads the way at 18.6 points per game (69th nationally), but the real story is their frontcourt depth. Alex Condon adds 15.4 points and 8.6 boards (57th in rebounding), while Rueben Chinyelu is an absolute monster on the glass at 11.5 rebounds per game (5th nationally). That three-headed frontcourt monster should dominate Oklahoma’s interior, which has been soft all season.
The concern with Florida is their three-point shooting – 27.3% ranks 352nd nationally, which is borderline catastrophic. But here’s the matchup that seals it for me: They don’t need to shoot threes well in this game. Oklahoma’s defense is so porous inside (giving up 294 points in the paint) that Florida can win this game exclusively in the painted area and on the offensive glass.
Oklahoma’s Situation
The Sooners have lost two straight, including a bad 53-72 beatdown at Mississippi State where they couldn’t crack 60 points. That game exposed Oklahoma’s biggest weakness – when their perimeter shooting goes cold, they have no Plan B. Nijel Pack leads them at 17.2 points per game (122nd nationally), but he’s a volume scorer who needs space to operate.
Oklahoma’s one significant advantage is ball security. They turn it over just 9.9 times per game (29th nationally) with a turnover ratio ranked 17th. That’s legitimately elite. But I keep coming back to that defensive rating of 106.5 because it’s just too exploitable. They’re giving up 75 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot 43.0% from the field. Against Florida’s rebounding attack, those numbers could get ugly fast.
The home court factor is real – Lloyd Noble Center is a tough place to play – but Oklahoma’s recent form suggests they’re searching for answers. They beat up on Mississippi Valley State and Stetson by a combined 84 points, then got smoked by Mississippi State on the road. That’s not the profile of a team ready to defend home court against an elite defensive squad.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and in the paint. Florida ranks 1st in rebounding and 31st in offensive rebounding percentage. Oklahoma ranks 109th in rebounding and 117th in offensive rebounding percentage. That’s a 108-spot gap in total rebounding and an 86-spot gap in offensive rebounding. When Chinyelu, Condon, and Haugh start crashing the glass against Oklahoma’s undersized frontcourt, we’re looking at second and third-chance opportunities all night for the Gators.
The three-point battle actually favors Florida’s defense over Oklahoma’s offense. Florida holds opponents to 26.0% from three (8th nationally) while Oklahoma shoots 33.3% from deep (188th). Even if Oklahoma has a decent shooting night, they’re running into a defense specifically designed to take away the arc. That’s a 15-point swing right there when you project it over 20-25 three-point attempts.
Pace is another factor working in Florida’s favor. The Gators want to play fast at 74.3 possessions per game, while Oklahoma prefers a slower tempo at 70.6. In a road environment, the visiting team typically dictates pace, and Florida has the athletes and depth to push this into the mid-70s possession-wise. More possessions means more opportunities for Florida’s rebounding advantage to manifest.
The main risk here is if Oklahoma gets hot from three and Florida’s putrid three-point shooting (27.3%) becomes a factor. But I’ve considered all of that, and the rebounding and defensive efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Florida can miss threes all night and still win this game by double digits if they dominate the glass like they should.
My Play
The Pick: Florida -5 to -5.5 (2.5 units)
I’m laying the points with the Gators on the road. The adjusted defensive efficiency gap of 12.4 points is enormous, and Florida’s rebounding dominance should create enough second-chance opportunities to overcome their three-point shooting woes. Oklahoma has no answer for Florida’s frontcourt, and their perimeter defense is going to get exposed by Florida’s pace.
I’m projecting this one around Florida 79, Oklahoma 68, which covers the 5.5-point number comfortably. The Gators have the defensive profile to hold Oklahoma in the high 60s, and their rebounding should generate enough offense to push past 75 even with poor perimeter shooting.
The realistic concern is Oklahoma shooting lights out from three at home and stealing this one in the final minutes. But their 33.3% three-point shooting against Florida’s 8th-ranked three-point defense makes that scenario unlikely. Florida’s too good defensively and too dominant on the glass to let this one slip away. Take the Gators and lay the points.
