The Revolutionaries bring a top-25 adjusted offense into Richmond, but the smart pick depends on whether their 308th-ranked defense can survive the Spiders’ half-court execution. Bash breaks down the point spread and the 18-point defensive rating gap at the Robins Center.
The Setup: George Washington at Richmond
George Washington is getting 2.5 to 3 points on the road at Richmond in an A-10 matchup, and I can already hear the confusion: Wait, the team ranked 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com is catching points against the 94th-ranked offense? Here’s the thing – this line isn’t about offense. It’s about George Washington’s glaring defensive issues running into a Richmond squad that’s been quietly efficient at the Robins Center. The Colonials are scoring 91.4 points per game (14th nationally), but they’re also allowing 75.7 (242nd) with a defensive rating that ranks 308th in the country. That’s not a typo. Richmond sits at 8-1, plays at a faster pace than GW, and defends at an elite level (50th in defensive rating). This number makes me want to dig deeper, because on paper, it looks like the market is telling us defense matters more than offense in this spot.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: George Washington at Richmond
Date: December 31, 2025
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Venue: Robins Center, Richmond, VA
Spread: George Washington -2.5 (DraftKings) / -3 (Bovada)
Total: 161.5 (DraftKings) / 162 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Richmond +120 / George Washington -140
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let me walk you through the efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com, because they tell a fascinating story. George Washington’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 119.6 (25th nationally), while Richmond checks in at 112.6 (94th). That’s a significant gap – roughly 7 points per 100 possessions in GW’s favor. But flip to defense, and Richmond holds a 103.9 adjusted defensive efficiency (101st) compared to George Washington’s 103.0 (85th). Wait, those are nearly identical defensive numbers? Here’s where it gets interesting: The raw defensive ratings paint a completely different picture. Richmond’s 96.9 defensive rating (50th) crushes GW’s 115.0 (308th). That’s an 18-point gap per 100 possessions.
Do that math over 70 possessions – roughly the pace we’ll see given Richmond’s 71.9 tempo (71st) and GW’s 66.0 (269th) – and you’re looking at a 12-13 point swing just from defensive execution. The adjusted numbers account for strength of schedule, but the raw ratings tell us how these teams have actually performed. George Washington has played nobody defensively and still can’t stop anyone. Richmond has faced better competition and held opponents to 69.7 points per game (104th nationally). The market is essentially saying: We don’t care how many points GW scores if they can’t get stops.
George Washington’s Situation
The Colonials are an offensive juggernaut on paper, ranking 10th nationally in offensive rating at 138.1. They shoot 51.2% from the field (22nd) with an effective field goal percentage of 58.8% (20th). Rafael Castro leads the way at 16.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per game, while Garrett Johnson adds 14.9 points. That’s a balanced attack with five players averaging double figures.
But here’s the massive problem: They can’t defend a lick. That 115.0 defensive rating ranks 308th out of roughly 360 Division I teams. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 43.9% from the field (206th) and 31.1% from three (113th). Those aren’t catastrophic percentages, but combined with their slow pace (269th at 66.0 possessions per game), they’re getting torched. Their turnover ratio of 0.2 ranks 228th, meaning they’re not creating extra possessions through defense. They’re coming off back-to-back losses to Florida and Delaware, where they allowed 80 and 70 points respectively. Against quality competition, this defense gets exposed.
Richmond’s Situation
Richmond sits at 8-1 with their only loss coming to Charleston Southern in a 72-77 head-scratcher. But look at what they do well: They defend. That 96.9 defensive rating (50th) is legit, holding opponents to 41.0% shooting (81st) and just 28.8% from three (45th nationally). That three-point defense number is critical – they’re elite at taking away the deep ball.
Offensively, they’re not spectacular but they’re efficient enough. The 117.7 offensive rating (95th) gets the job done, especially at their faster pace of 71.9 possessions per game. Aiden Argabright leads at 11.3 points per game, with AJ Lopez and Jaden Daughtry both at 10.8. It’s a committee approach, but they take care of the ball beautifully – just 10.9 turnovers per game (76th) with a turnover ratio of 0.1 (38th). That’s elite ball security. At the Robins Center, where they’re defending at an elite level and controlling tempo, they’re a completely different animal than their adjusted numbers suggest.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether George Washington can maintain their offensive efficiency against Richmond’s elite three-point defense. The Colonials shoot 35.9% from deep (98th), which is solid but not spectacular. Richmond ranks 45th in opponent three-point percentage at 28.8%. When you factor in that GW’s effective field goal percentage of 58.8% is heavily influenced by three-point shooting, Richmond’s perimeter defense becomes a massive factor.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: George Washington’s 308th-ranked defensive rating against Richmond’s ability to control pace and tempo. Richmond plays at 71.9 possessions per game compared to GW’s 66.0. The Spiders will dictate the pace at home, pushing it just enough to get 72-74 possessions. Every additional possession favors Richmond when GW can’t get stops. The Colonials allow 75.7 points per game despite playing at a glacial pace. Speed this up even slightly, and that number balloons.
I keep coming back to those defensive rating numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. An 18-point gap per 100 possessions is enormous. Even if George Washington’s offense operates at peak efficiency, they’re giving up points in bunches on the other end. Richmond’s 7.7 steals per game (136th) and turnover creation will generate transition opportunities against a GW team that ranks 238th in turnovers per game at 12.9.
My Play
The Pick: Richmond +2.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’m taking the home dog getting points in a game where defense and pace control matter more than raw offensive firepower. Richmond’s 96.9 defensive rating at home against George Washington’s inability to defend creates a clear path to victory. The Spiders will push the pace just enough to exploit GW’s defensive weaknesses while their elite three-point defense neutralizes the Colonials’ biggest weapon.
The main risk here is if George Washington gets nuclear hot from the field and shoots 55%+ like they’re capable of doing. But I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive gap is still too massive to ignore. Richmond has lost just once at home, and that was a fluke against Charleston Southern. George Washington is 0-2 against quality opponents this season (Florida and Delaware losses).
Score Prediction: Richmond 81, George Washington 77
Give me the home team getting points with the defensive edge and pace control. This line feels like it’s begging you to take the sexy offense, but defense wins in conference play, especially at home. Richmond covers and potentially wins outright.
