After digging into the transition data, the play here is to trust the home team’s elite offensive profile. Bryan Bash breaks down why Oakland’s #74 ranked offense is a stylistic nightmare for the Phoenix.
The Setup: Green Bay at Oakland
Oakland’s laying 6 against Green Bay on Friday night at the OU Credit Union O’rena, and if you’re looking at this Horizon matchup thinking it’s just another mid-major conference game, you’re missing what the numbers are screaming at you. The Golden Grizzlies are -300 on the moneyline, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread feels light. Oakland checks in at #150 nationally in adjusted net rating (+1.3) while Green Bay sits at #230 (-5.1). That’s a 6.4-point net rating gap before you even factor in home court. The market’s giving you 6 points. The efficiency model says it should be closer to 11. So what’s the story here?
Green Bay enters 15-13 overall but 10-7 in conference play, showing they can scrap in Horizon League games. Oakland’s 14-13 with a 10-6 league mark, and they’ve dominated this series lately—winning 8 of the last 10 meetings straight up, including a 25-point beatdown in Green Bay back in January (88-63). The Phoenix are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, which explains why this number might feel compressed. But let’s be clear: Green Bay’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #312 nationally, and Oakland’s offensive rating (#74) is built to exploit exactly that kind of defensive vulnerability.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: Friday, February 20, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET
Location: OU Credit Union O’rena, Rochester, MI
Spread: Oakland -6 (Bovada) / -6.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 154.5 (Bovada) / 153.5 (DraftKings)
Moneyline: Oakland -300 / Green Bay +250
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on Oakland -6, and I get the hesitation. Green Bay’s been solid against the spread in conference games (11-6 ATS) and on the road (10-6 ATS away). They’re also coming in with some momentum, winning three of their last five. But here’s what the market might be underweighting: Oakland’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #74 nationally at 115.5, while Green Bay’s adjusted defense sits at #312 at 116.1. That’s not a small gap—that’s a chasm.
The pace projection blends to around 67.5 possessions, which favors Oakland’s tempo preference. The Golden Grizzlies play at the 31st-fastest pace nationally (71.1), while Green Bay crawls at #323 (63.8). Oakland’s going to dictate tempo at home, and when they do, they’re averaging 82.7 points per game (#52 nationally) compared to Green Bay’s 75.0 (#213). The shooting numbers tell a similar story: Oakland holds a 31.3% offensive rebounding rate (#163) compared to Green Bay’s anemic 25.1% (#346). Second-chance points are going to pile up for the home side.
The total sits at 154.5, and the model projects 152.8. That’s pretty tight, but the trends scream over. The total has gone over in 6 of Oakland’s last 8 home games and 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 road games. When these teams meet at Oakland, the over is 4-1 in the last five matchups. With Oakland’s pace and Green Bay’s defensive struggles, I’m leaning toward points.
Green Bay Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Green Bay’s offensive identity is built on shooting efficiency, not volume. They rank #33 nationally in field goal percentage (48.4%) and #32 in true shooting percentage (60.1%). Marcus Hall leads the way at 14.5 points per game, with C.J. O’Hara (13.3 PPG) and Justin Allen (12.8 PPG) providing secondary scoring. Preston Ruedinger is the facilitator at 4.6 assists per game (#104 nationally), and that assist-to-turnover ratio (1.27) is respectable.
The problem? Green Bay can’t rebound. They rank #339 in rebounds per game (31.4) and #346 in offensive rebounding percentage (25.1%). Against an Oakland team that crashes the glass hard, that’s a death sentence. Green Bay also can’t defend the three-pointer—opponents are shooting 36.9% from deep against them (#346 nationally). Oakland has capable shooters, and if the Phoenix can’t close out, this gets ugly fast.
Oakland Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Oakland’s offense runs through Brody Robinson (16.7 PPG, 5.6 APG), who ranks #42 nationally in assists per game. Michael Houge (16.2 PPG) and Isaac Garrett (15.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) provide versatile scoring, and Tuburu Naivalurua adds another 14.2 points with 5.5 boards. This is a balanced attack that ranks #80 in offensive rating (116.4) and #108 in assists per game (15.1).
The concern? Oakland’s defense isn’t much better than Green Bay’s. They rank #325 in defensive rating (115.2) and #321 in opponent field goal percentage (47.1%). They’ve lost three straight—getting torched by Robert Morris (93-69), Youngstown State (86-82), and Cleveland State (91-78). That’s 270 points allowed in three games. The defensive intensity isn’t there right now.
But here’s the thing: Oakland’s been better at home. They’re 9-3 straight up in their last 12 home games and 4-4 ATS at home this season. Against Green Bay specifically, they’re 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings at home and 8-1 overall in the last nine matchups. The dominance in this series is real.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: pace, rebounding, and three-point defense. Oakland wants to push tempo and generate transition opportunities—they’ve scored 419 fast break points this season compared to Green Bay’s 244. If the Golden Grizzlies can get out in transition and attack before Green Bay’s defense sets, this spread covers easily.
The rebounding battle is critical. Oakland’s 6.2-point offensive rebounding edge in the model projection isn’t just a number—it’s a game-changer. Green Bay ranks #346 in offensive rebounding percentage, and Oakland’s going to dominate the glass. Every second-chance bucket extends possessions and wears down Green Bay’s thin frontcourt rotation.
Three-point shooting will matter too. Green Bay’s allowing 36.9% from three (#346 nationally), and Oakland’s capable of exploiting that. The Phoenix have hit 7.0 threes per game this season, and if they’re open, they’ll make you pay. Green Bay’s perimeter defense has been a liability all year, and Oakland’s ball movement (15.1 assists per game) will generate quality looks.
The head-to-head history is damning for Green Bay. They’re 2-8 straight up in the last 10 meetings and 0-5 at Oakland. The January matchup saw Oakland win by 25 (88-63), and while Green Bay’s improved since then, the fundamental matchup problems remain. Oakland’s faster, bigger, and better offensively. Green Bay’s shooting efficiency keeps them competitive, but it’s not enough to overcome the structural disadvantages.
Bash’s Best Bet
Oakland -6 (-110)
I’m laying the points with Oakland. The efficiency model projects an 11-point margin, and the market’s giving you 6. That’s 5 points of value, and I’ll take that all day. Green Bay’s ATS trends are nice, but they don’t change the fact that Oakland’s offense (#74 in adjusted efficiency) is going to feast on Green Bay’s defense (#312). The pace advantage, rebounding edge, and home-court dominance in this series all point to Oakland covering.
The total’s tempting too—the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings at Oakland—but I’m prioritizing the side. Oakland’s won by an average of 8.8 points in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, and they’ve covered 4 of the last 6 at home against Green Bay. Give me the home team laying less than a touchdown in a game where they should win by double digits. Oakland -6.
