Harvard Crimson at Brown Bears Point Spread Pick 3/1/24

Harvard Crimson (14-10 SU, 9-14 ATS) vs. Brown Bears (9-17 SU, 13-12 ATS)

When: Friday, March 1st, 7:00 PM (ET)

Where: Pizzitola Sports Center, RI, Providence

TV: ESPN+

Point Spread: HARVRD +2.5/BROWN -2.5

Total: 141.5

Money Line: Harvard Crimson +113/-137

Notable Injuries

Crimson

Bears

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Harvard enters this game as a 2.5-point underdog, and they have gone 5-9 when getting points this season. So far, they have gone 14-10 overall and 5-6 in Ivy League play. On the road, they are 5-5 compared to 8-5 at home.

In their last outing, the Crimson topped Penn by a score of 74-70. Over their last 10 games on the road, they have gone 5-5, and their record on the road this season is -5.2.

Today’s over/under line of 141.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Harvard’s games this season (143.7). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points, which is lower than the average over/under line of 141.5 for the season.

Harvard’s ATS record this season is 9-14, and they are 5-5 vs. the spread on the road. As the underdog, the Crimson are 5-9 vs. the spread this year and just 2-8 in their last 10 games as the underdog.

At home this season, Brown has gone 2-7 and enters this game on a two-game losing streak. Over their last 10 games at home, the Bears have gone 3-7. For the season, Brown has a scoring differential of -3.1 points per game at home.

So far, the Bears have been the favorite in eight games this season, going 3-5 in those matchups. Brown has won three straight games and is 5-6 in Ivy League play.

So far this season, the over/under record for Brown games sits at 12-13, and today’s line of 141.5 is very close to the average over/under line in their games (142.5). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 138 points, and their OU record in that span is 0-3. On the year, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line of 141.5.

As the favorite this season, Brown has gone 2-6 ATS. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears are just 4-6 vs. the spread. At home, Brown is 3-6 ATS this year, and their last 3 home ATS mark is 1-2.

Analysis

The Crimson’s offense finished with 74 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 71 points per contest. Chisom Okpara is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 16.5 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Malik Mack brings a PPG average of 17.9 into the game.

So far, the Crimson’s defense is ranked 145th in the country at 71.2 points per contest. Harvard’s three-point defense is currently 212th in the country at 8.2 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 41.1% of their shots vs. Harvard.

Brown recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 78 points against Cornell. This output exceeded their season average of 69.9 points per game. The Brown offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 23.9 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 33% of their looks from outside this season.

Coming into today’s game, the Brown defense is giving up an average of 71.8 points per contest. So far, the Brown defense is giving up an average of 7.8 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.6 times per game (573rd).

Betting Trends

• Across their last three road contests, Harvard has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 2-1, while averaging 70 points per game.
• In their last ten games at home, the Bears have a straight up record of 5-5 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 65 points per game in this stretch.
• As the betting underdog, the Crimson have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Harvard posted a straight up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.
• The last five games that Brown was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 2-3 straight up.

Rich Crew’s Spread Pick

Brown comes in hot, but for some reason they’ve struggled at home this season winners of just three of ten games overall and one of five in conference action. Harvard has done okay on the road splitting their four Ivy league games with victories over middle of the pack Columbus and Penn but losing to top level Cornell and Princeton. The thing with Brown is they made a lineup change four games ago and while they lost the first one to Princeton on the road, they came out strong, led at the half, and were still within three with 5.5 minutes left before falling by nine. The Bears have won three straight since that time including a huge 78-74 win over Cornell as a -11.5 road dog. Take Brown -2.