Portland State enters as a 3.5-point favorite, a number that seems light given their #54 national rank in adjusted defensive efficiency. While Idaho can score in bunches, the Vikings’ ability to hold opponents to just 40.7% shooting makes the home side a strong ATS pick in a game where defensive stops will be at a premium.
The Setup: Idaho at Portland State
Portland State is laying 3.5 points at home against Idaho on Thursday night, and if you’re looking at this as a typical Big Sky coin flip, you’re missing what the numbers are screaming at you. The Vikings are 16-5 against the spread this season—one of the best covering teams in the country—and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency metrics, you start to understand why. Portland State ranks #54 in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to Idaho’s #180 mark. That’s a 126-spot chasm in defensive capability, and it’s the kind of gap that decides conference games in February. The Vandals are 9-14 ATS and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road trips. This isn’t about home cooking—it’s about a legitimately better defensive team getting a short number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 19, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Location: The Viking Pavilion
Point Spread: Portland State -3.5
Over/Under: 143
Moneyline: Portland State -175, Idaho +150
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s where it gets interesting. The model projects Portland State by 6.9 points after factoring in a 3.5-point home court advantage and a conference game boost. That’s a 3.4-point gap between the model and the market number. The market is giving you Portland State at -3.5, but the efficiency data suggests this should be closer to a touchdown. Why the discrepancy? Idaho’s 14-12 record looks respectable on the surface, and they score 79.5 points per game—good enough for #106 nationally. But peel back the layer and you see a team that’s #155 in adjusted offensive efficiency facing a defense ranked #54. Portland State holds opponents to 69.8 points per game (#78 nationally) and limits teams to just 40.7% from the field (#35) and 30.4% from three (#28). The Vikings’ defensive rating of 99.8 is elite for this level, and Idaho’s 109.5 adjusted offensive rating isn’t scaring anyone. The pace blend projects 68.1 possessions—a moderate tempo that favors the more efficient team. That’s Portland State.
Idaho Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s give Idaho credit where it’s due. The Vandals can shoot it from three at 35.9% (#75 nationally), and their effective field goal percentage of 53.9% ranks #88. Kristian Gonzalez leads the way at 18.0 points per game, with Jackson Rasmussen adding 14.8 and Kolton Mitchell chipping in 11.9 while distributing 4.0 assists per game. Idaho’s true shooting percentage of 57.9% is actually slightly better than Portland State’s 56.8%, which explains why they can score in bunches when things are clicking. They hung 99 on Idaho State in their last home game and shot nearly 60% from the floor. But here’s the problem: they’re 5-8 ATS on the road and averaging just 75.46 points in away games. Their offensive rating drops, their shooting percentages decline, and suddenly that #155 adjusted offensive efficiency looks even more pedestrian against a top-60 defense.
Portland State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Portland State isn’t going to blow you away offensively—they rank #241 in adjusted offensive efficiency—but they don’t need to. The Vikings shoot 47.4% from the field (#55 nationally) and get to the rim consistently, evidenced by their 954 points in the paint this season. Jaylin Henderson is the engine, averaging 17.5 points and 6.2 assists per game (#16 nationally), while Terri Miller Jr. provides 15.6 points and 6.7 boards. Tre-Vaughn Minott controls the glass at 8.4 rebounds per game (#65), and the Vikings’ offensive rebounding percentage of 30.6% ranks #189—significantly better than Idaho’s #302 mark at 27.9%. Portland State is 17-7 overall and 11-2 in Big Sky play, including a 5-1 record at home in conference games. They’ve won eight of their last nine against Idaho, covering in five of the last six meetings. The Vikings are 20-3 straight up in their last 23 home games. This is a program that protects home court.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Idaho score enough to stay within the number against Portland State’s defense? The Vikings allow just 40.7% shooting and force teams into contested looks all night. Idaho’s 45.2% field goal percentage isn’t bad, but it’s #179 nationally—nothing special. The Vandals are also #302 in offensive rebounding percentage, which means when they miss, they’re not getting second chances against a Portland State team that ranks #189 in that category. The turnover battle should be relatively even—both teams sit at a 0.2 turnover ratio—but Portland State generates more steals (7.5 per game to Idaho’s 6.0) and blocks more shots (4.0 to 2.1). The pace projection of 68.1 possessions favors Portland State’s style. They want to grind you down, control tempo, and win in the 70s. Idaho’s been held under 73 points in three of their last five games. The Vikings have gone under the total in four of their last five home games and four of the last five meetings with Idaho. This projects as a defensive slugfest.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 3.5 points with Portland State. The model sees 3.4 points of value here, and when you’re getting a team that’s 16-5 ATS with a top-60 defense against a squad that’s 9-14 ATS and ranks #180 defensively, you take it. Portland State is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last six. They’re 9-4 ATS in conference play and have covered in 11 of their last 13 away games. This is a program that knows how to win tight games, and Idaho’s 1-5 ATS mark in the last six meetings tells you everything you need to know about how this matchup plays out. The Vikings win this one by 7-10 points. Give the short number and cash it. I also like the under 143—the model projects 146.3, but the trends scream low-scoring grinder. Four of the last five meetings have gone under, and Portland State has gone under in four of five at home. Take the under as well.
