Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Maryland Terrapins Best Bet

Illinois Fighting Illini (18-6 SU, 12-10-2 ATS) vs. Maryland Terrapins (14-11 SU, 10-15 ATS)

When: Saturday, February 17th, 5:30 PM (ET)

Where: XFINITY Center, MD, College Park

TV: FOX

Point Spread: ILL -2/MARY +2

Total: 139.5

Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini -136/+112

Notable Injuries

Fighting Illini

• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Amani Hansberry (Questionable) Back

Terrapins

• Jordan Geronimo (Questionable) Knee
• Noah Batchelor (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Chance Stephens (Out) Knee
• Mady Traore (Questionable) Knee
• Braden Pierce (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

Illinois comes into this game as a 2-point favorite, and they have been the favorite in 19 of their 24 games this season. The Fighting Illini have a record of 16-3 when favored, and they are 4-4 on the road this season.

Over their last 10 road games, Illinois has gone just 4-6, and they are 2-3 over their last five games away from home. They are coming off of a 97-68 win over Michigan, and they have gone 9-4 in Big Ten games this season.

Illinois’ over/under record for the season is 16-8 and today’s over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (147.5). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 168 points and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 8-2.

When looking at Illinois’ overall ATS record this season, they are currently 12-10-2. On the road, their ATS mark is 5-2-1. As the favorite, the Fighting Illini have gone 9-9-1 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 3 road games, Illinois is 1-2 ATS, while their mark over their last 10 games as the favorite is 5-5.

Through 25 games this season, Maryland has an overall record of 14-11. In Big Ten play, the Terrapins are 6-8 compared to their non-conference record of 8-3.

At home this season, Maryland has been dominant, going 11-4 with an average scoring margin of +11.5 points per game. Over their last 10 games at home, the Terrapins are 7-3.

Today’s over/under line of 139.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Maryland’s games this season (136.4), and the average scoring total in their games this year is 133.2. So far, 16 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line.

As the underdog this season, Maryland has gone 4-6 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS record is 6-9. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Terrapins are 4-6. In their last 3 home games, they have gone 2-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

Illinois is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 97 points vs. Michigan. This figure is more than their season average of 83 points per game. The top scorer for the Fighting Illini was Terrence Shannon Jr., who scored 31 points, while Coleman Hawkins chipped in with 17 points.

The Fighting Illini’s defense is presently ranked 126th nationally, allowing an average of 70.3 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Michigan, the Wolverines finished with a field goal percentage of 56% and a total of 68 points vs. Illinois.

Maryland is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 78 points vs. Iowa. This figure is more than their season average of 69.4 points per game. Offensively, the Terrapins have a season-long field goal percentage of 41%, which is 367th in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 383rd in percentage and 300th in three-pointers made.

Maryland’s defense has been playing well, ranking 15th nationally, with 63.8 points allowed per game. So far, the Maryland defense is giving up an average of 8.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.6 times per game (565th).

Betting Trends

• Across their three previous road games, Illinois has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 86 points per game.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Maryland has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 66 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Maryland has an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 3-7 straight up.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Fighting Illini have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 3-0.

Rich Crew’s O/U Pick

I like the total here. I’m not sure Illinois will try to speed up the pace after shooting just 33% from the filed in the earlier meeting on their homecourt. The Terps held their last six Big Ten opponents at home to 67 or fewer points including Purdue (5th ranked) and Iowa (11th). Take the Under 139.5.