Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini (11-2 SU, 7-4-2 ATS) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (13-1 SU, 9-3-2 ATS)

When: Friday, January 5th, 8:30 PM (ET)

Where: , IN, West Lafayette

TV: FS1

Point Spread: ILL +10/PUR -10

Total: 153.5

Money Line: Illinois Fighting Illini +410/-563

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Notable Injuries

Fighting Illini

• Terrence Shannon Jr. (Out) Suspension
• Sencire Harris (Out) Redshirt
• Niccolo Moretti (Out) Leg

Boilermakers

• Mason Gillis (Probable) Illness

Recent Form

Illinois enters their 14th game of the season with an 11-2 overall record. In their last five road games, which includes games from last year, Illinois has a record of 2-3.

Illinois comes in with an over/under record of 7-6-0 through 13 games, with their games averaging a combined 149.5 points per game so far. The Fighting Illini have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last three games, with their games averaging 169 points per game.

Against the spread, Illinois has a current record of 7-4-2. In their last five games, they are 3-0-2 vs. the spread.

So far this season, Purdue has played 15 games and has a record of 13-1. When playing on the road, they are 3-1, while at home, they are 10-0.

In 14 games, Purdue comes in with an over/under mark of 9-5-0, with their games averaging 152.4 points per game. Looking at the Boilermakers’ last three games, their over/under record is 1-2, with their games averaging 136 points per game.

As of now, Purdue has a winning ATS record, sitting at 9-3-2. In their most recent five games, the team has gone 4-1 vs. the spread.

The Historicals

Through the last five head-to-head matchups, neither team has gotten a leg up on the spread, each sitting at 2-2-1. In addition, the games have been competitive, with an average of just 1 point per game separating the teams. Over the course of these games, they averaged 149 points per game, leading a 4-1 over-under record.

Analysis

Illinois’ offense is coming off a strong performance vs. Northwestern, finishing the game with a total of 96 points. Their season average is now 83.9 points per game. Marcus Domask was the leading scorer for the Fighting Illini, putting up 32 points. In addition, Justin Harmon contributed 20 points.

So far, the Fighting Illini’s defense is ranked 54th in the country at 65.5 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Illinois’ defense has allowed opponents to shoot 38.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 31.9% this season.

Coming off their recent game, the Purdue offense tallied 67 points in a matchup against Maryland. Their field goal percentage for the game was 46.3%, and they made nine threes. For the season, the Purdue offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA, with a field goal percentage of 49%. So far, they have hit 55% of their looks from inside the arc and are averaging 8.4 made threes per contest.

The Boilermakers’ defense is presently ranked 78th nationally, allowing an average of 67.0 points per contest. So far, the Purdue defense is giving up an average of 8.2 offensive rebounds per game and is turning teams over 11.4 times per game (498th).

Betting Trends

• When looking at their past five road matchups, Illinois has an ATS record of 3-1-1 while averaging 77 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Purdue has an ATS record of 1-1-1 while averaging 77 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last five games as the betting underdog, the Fighting Illini have gone 3-1-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-3.
• The Boilermakers have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.

Rich Crew Pick

The Illini have averaged 83.9 points per game this season to rank 26th in the nation. They match up well against the Boilermakers, who are strong defensively against the three – 44th ranked but only mediocre against two-point shooting, Illinois strength, ranking 82nd. So I’m willing to take a shot on Illinois and hope it doesn’t go the way of last night’s disastrous Buffaloes pick. Take Illinois +10.5.