The Spartans are looking to suffocate the league’s most efficient transition offense with a top-5 national defense, while Indiana attempts to prove their 8-1 record isn’t a byproduct of pace. Bash dives into the handicapping data to see if the Michigan State point spread pick is the right way to play this Big Ten mismatch.
The Setup: Indiana at Michigan State
Michigan State is laying 7.5 points at home against Indiana on Tuesday night, and if you’re looking at these records – 8-1 versus 7-2 – you might be wondering if that’s a bit steep for a Big Ten matchup. Here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t just justified, it might actually be light. The Spartans are sitting at #4 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 93.0, while Indiana checks in at a respectable #20 at 97.0. But it’s the style clash that makes this number sing. Michigan State plays at the 251st-fastest pace in the country at 66.6 possessions per game, while Indiana wants to push it at 70.7 possessions (#112). That four-possession difference doesn’t sound like much until you realize the Hoosiers’ entire offensive identity is built on tempo and transition – and they’re walking into the Breslin Center buzzsaw that’s going to slow them to a crawl. Let me walk you through why this defensive stranglehold is going to be worth more than a touchdown.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Indiana @ Michigan State
Date: January 13, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI
Spread: Michigan State -7.5 (DraftKings), -7 (Bovada)
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -300, Indiana +250
Why This Number Makes Sense
The adjusted net efficiency gap tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Michigan State sits at #13 nationally with a +21.7 net rating, while Indiana checks in at #20 with +19.7. That’s essentially a push on paper, right? Wrong. Here’s why this line makes sense: the Spartans’ elite defense (#4 in adjusted defensive efficiency) is specifically designed to neutralize what Indiana does best.
Indiana ranks #64 in offensive rating at 120.9 and loves to get out and run – they’re 14th in the country in assists per game at 19.3, and they take care of the ball beautifully at just 9.8 turnovers per game (#25). That’s not just good ball security – it’s why the Hoosiers can score 85.4 points per game despite being mediocre in half-court shooting metrics. They create easy buckets in transition.
But Michigan State is going to take all of that away. The Spartans rank 22nd nationally in opponent field goal percentage at 38.0% and 41st in opponent three-point percentage at 28.6%. More importantly, they force you to execute in the half-court at their glacial 66.6 pace. Do that math over 67-68 possessions instead of Indiana’s preferred 70-71, and you’re looking at 6-8 fewer offensive opportunities for the Hoosiers. When your offense is built on volume and transition, that’s a 10-12 point swing right there.
Indiana’s Situation
The Hoosiers come in at 7-2 with some impressive offensive numbers. Tucker DeVries leads the way at 17.8 points per game, and they’ve got a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures. That 56.9% effective field goal percentage (#44) and 61.1% true shooting percentage (#39) show they’re efficient when they get the shots they want. The ball movement is elite – 19.3 assists per game ranks 14th nationally.
But here’s where it gets dicey: Indiana is 343rd in offensive rebounding percentage at just 25.7%. That’s catastrophic when you’re facing a team that ranks 33rd in rebounding at 41.8 boards per game and 90th in offensive rebounding percentage at 34.0%. The Hoosiers also rank 173rd in rebounds per game at just 37.1. When you can’t crash the glass and you’re playing in a grind-it-out game, every possession becomes precious.
They’re coming off a loss to Nebraska (77-83) that exposed some vulnerabilities, particularly when they can’t dictate tempo. That defensive rating of 93.9 (#29) is solid, but they haven’t faced an offense this methodical and physical yet.
Michigan State’s Situation
The Spartans are 8-1 with their only loss coming in a 56-58 rock fight at Nebraska – the same team that just beat Indiana. That tells you everything about Michigan State’s identity: they’re going to make every game ugly, physical, and low-scoring. That 91.8 defensive rating (#20 in the country) and 93.0 adjusted defensive efficiency (#4) are the calling cards.
Jeremy Fears Jr. is the engine, leading the nation at 9.7 assists per game while scoring 11.6 points. Jaxon Kohler provides interior presence with 14.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game (#28 nationally), and Carson Cooper adds 6.9 boards (#188). That frontcourt size and physicality is going to punish Indiana on the glass all night.
The offense isn’t pretty – 200th in scoring at 76.6 points per game and 218th in effective field goal percentage at 51.1% – but it doesn’t need to be. Michigan State scores 114.6 points per 100 possessions (#135), which is perfectly adequate when you’re holding opponents to 61.0 points per game (#9 in the country). At home in the Breslin Center, where that crowd is going to be rocking for a Big Ten game, this defense becomes even more suffocating.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Michigan State’s ability to control tempo and dominate the glass. Indiana wants 70-71 possessions; Michigan State is giving them 67-68. That’s the first battle, and the Spartans win it every time at home.
The rebounding mismatch is even more pronounced. Michigan State’s 34.0% offensive rebounding rate against Indiana’s 343rd-ranked defensive rebounding is going to create 4-6 extra possessions for the Spartans. Combined with the pace advantage, you’re looking at a 10-possession swing in Michigan State’s favor. At even 1.1 points per possession, that’s an 11-point edge before we even talk about execution.
Indiana’s 36.2% three-point shooting (#88) runs into Michigan State’s 28.6% opponent three-point percentage (#41). The Hoosiers aren’t a high-volume three-point team anyway – their offense is built on ball movement and attacking the rim. But Michigan State ranks 49th in blocks per game at 4.7, and with Kohler and Cooper patrolling the paint, those rim attacks are going to be contested hard.
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Indiana ranks 343rd in offensive rebounding percentage. Michigan State ranks 90th. That’s not a mismatch – that’s a massacre waiting to happen on the glass.
My Play
Michigan State -7.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered Indiana’s offensive efficiency and their ability to take care of the basketball, and the defensive mismatch is still too massive to ignore. Michigan State is going to slow this game to their preferred crawl, dominate the glass, and make Indiana execute in the half-court against an elite defense. The Spartans are 8-1 at home with that crowd behind them, and this is exactly the type of game Tom Izzo’s teams win by double digits.
The main risk here is if Indiana gets hot from three early and forces Michigan State to speed up, but even then, the rebounding and pace advantages are structural. I’m projecting Michigan State 72, Indiana 62. That’s a 10-point win that covers the 7.5 comfortably.
Lay the points with the Spartans. This defensive identity is real, and it’s going to suffocate Indiana’s transition game all night long.
