Merrimack enters Sunday’s matinee laying 7.5 points, but a deep dive into the adjusted power ratings suggests the market is actually discounting a Warriors team that has been perfect at home. Taking Merrimack as our ATS pick aligns with a defensive unit ranked 134th nationally, set to stifle an Iona offense that has struggled to find consistency on the road.
The Setup: Iona at Merrimack
Merrimack’s laying 7.5 at home against Iona on Sunday afternoon, and if you’re looking at this MAAC matchup thinking it’s just another conference game, you’re missing what the numbers are screaming. The Warriors are 10-0 at home this season and riding a five-game win streak that’s seen them demolish conference opponents by an average of 13.1 points over their last ten. Meanwhile, Iona limps in at 2-6 in their last eight road conference games, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread might actually be giving you a discount on the home side.
Merrimack checks in at #175 in adjusted net rating versus Iona’s #235, a gap of 60 spots that translates to real basketball advantages. The Warriors’ adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 134th nationally compared to Iona’s 193rd on the offensive end. That’s not a recipe for the Gaels to suddenly find offensive rhythm in a hostile environment where Merrimack is 9-1 ATS at home this season.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Iona at Merrimack
Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: Lawler Arena
Spread: Merrimack -7.5
Total: 137.5
Moneyline: Merrimack -340, Iona +270
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 7.5 for a reason, and it’s rooted in efficiency math that checks out. Merrimack’s net rating advantage sits at 5.5 points before you even factor in home court, and with a standard 3.5-point home edge, you’re looking at a projected spread around 9 points. The model actually has this at Merrimack -9.9, meaning the market is giving you nearly 2.5 points of value on the visiting Gaels.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Merrimack’s defensive rating of 107.1 ranks 134th nationally, while their offensive rating of 106.8 sits at 220th. They’re not blowing teams away with offensive firepower—they’re suffocating them defensively. Over their last ten games, they’ve held opponents to just 59.8 points per game. That’s elite-level defense in conference play, and it’s why this total of 137.5 might be the sharper play than the side.
The pace blend projects at 65 possessions, right in that slow-grind territory where Merrimack thrives. Iona’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 262nd nationally—this isn’t a team built to score in bunches against top-tier conference defenses. The Warriors rank 6th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 28.7%, and Iona’s going to need those perimeter shots to fall if they want to keep pace.
Iona Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s be clear about what Iona does well: they defend the three-point line. Ranking 42nd nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 30.8%, the Gaels can take away the perimeter game. That’s a legitimate strength, and it’s kept them competitive in games where they have no business hanging around.
CJ Anthony is the engine here, averaging 15.8 points and 6.1 assists per game, ranking 22nd nationally in the assist category. Lamin Sabally gives them a legitimate inside-out threat at 13.2 points and 8.2 rebounds, ranking 70th nationally in boards. When Iona’s clicking, they can create just enough offensive diversity to keep defenses honest.
The problem? They’re not clicking. Over their last ten games, they’re scoring just 68.5 points per game while allowing 69.6. That’s a negative point differential against a softer portion of their schedule. Their true shooting percentage of 54.9% ranks 240th nationally, and their effective field goal percentage of 51.6% sits at 191st. These aren’t numbers that inspire confidence on the road against a defense that’s holding MAAC opponents to 62.65 points per game.
Merrimack Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Merrimack’s perfect 10-0 home record isn’t an accident—it’s built on defensive fundamentals that translate to wins. They rank 20th nationally in blocks per game at 4.9 and 49th in steals at 8.2. That’s active, disruptive defense that forces opponents into uncomfortable possessions.
Kevair Kennedy and Ernest Shelton both average 14.8 points per game, giving the Warriors a balanced scoring attack that doesn’t rely on one player getting hot. Todd Brogna might only score 6.1 points per game, but his 2.7 assists from the forward spot keep the offense moving. This is a team that shoots 78.3% from the free-throw line, ranking 13th nationally—they execute in crunch time.
The concern? Their offensive efficiency ranking of 220th nationally suggests they’re not built to run away from teams. They win ugly, grinding out possessions and forcing opponents into their pace. Against conference opponents at home, they’re averaging 72.06 points per game, which is solid but not overwhelming. If Iona can keep this game in the 60s, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies in the paint and at the free-throw line. Merrimack’s blocked 4.9 shots per game this season, and Iona’s offensive rebounding percentage of 27.6% ranks 306th nationally. The Gaels aren’t getting second chances against this length and activity.
The head-to-head history tells you everything: these teams split their last two meetings by a combined four points. Merrimack shot 44.55% from the field in those games while Iona managed just 36.29%. The Warriors grabbed more steals (9.5 to 6.5) and controlled tempo. That blueprint works again on Sunday.
Iona’s turnover ratio of 0.2 matches Merrimack’s exactly, so this won’t be decided by live-ball turnovers. It’s going to come down to half-court execution, and Merrimack’s 9-1 ATS home record versus Iona’s 3-5 ATS road record in conference play tells you who executes better in these spots. The Warriors are averaging 72.9 points per game over their last ten while holding opponents to 59.8—that’s a 13-point margin that’s not reflected in this 7.5-point spread.
Bash’s Best Bet
Merrimack -7.5 (-110)
I’m laying the points with the home team, and it’s not particularly close. Merrimack’s 10-0 at home, 9-1 ATS in that building, and they’re catching an Iona team that’s 2-6 on the road in conference play. The model projects this at -9.9, so you’re getting nearly 2.5 points of value on the favorite in a spot where they’ve been dominant all season.
The defensive numbers don’t lie: Merrimack’s holding MAAC opponents to 62.65 points per game at home while Iona’s averaging just 68.5 points over their last ten. That’s a pace and efficiency mismatch that favors the Warriors, and with Iona ranking 262nd in adjusted offensive efficiency, I don’t see where the Gaels generate enough scoring to keep this within a possession.
Take Merrimack -7.5 and expect them to control this game from the opening tip. The Warriors win by double digits.
