Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones Pick 12/9/21

by | Dec 9, 2021 | cbb

Iowa Hawkeyes (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) vs. Iowa State Cyclones (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

When: Thursday, December 9, 9 p.m.

Where: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa


Point Spread: IOWA -4.5/IAST +4.5 (MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 on their registration page and they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $50 to $300!)

Moneyline: IOWA -200/IAST +165

Total: 150.5

Last Time Out:

Iowa lost 87-83 to Illinois; Iowa State beat Creighton 64-58.

About the Matchup:

Depending on your point of view, Iowa State is either one of the most surprising teams in the country or a team that’s been the beneficiary of a soft schedule and is about to run into serious problems once the difficulty increases. The Cyclones have two wins on neutral courts as well as a true road win at Creighton going for them, but they haven’t really proven that they’re good enough to beat an actual good team.
Beating Iowa would be a major step in the right direction for the Cyclones, even if Iowa is coming off a pair of losses to Purdue and Illinois. The Hawkeyes were undefeated until they had to go to West Lafayette, but they’ve now lost a pair of games in the Big Ten and really need to get some momentum going before the end of the calendar year. Iowa State’s defense has made the difference this year, but the Cyclones haven’t seen an offense anywhere close to what Iowa brings to the table, which could prove a challenge that Iowa State isn’t ready to meet.

Scouting the Hawkeyes:

Iowa just learned the hard way that there’s a rather large difference between Keegan Murray and Kofi Cockburn, as the latter grabbed 18 rebounds for Illinois and dominated the contest in Iowa’s last game, making the difference in a narrow win for the Illini. The Hawkeyes were bludgeoned so badly on the boards that their rebound total was just four more than Illinois’ offensive rebound total.

Part of that was because the Hawkeyes just didn’t have the edge inside, but part was because Iowa didn’t shoot it well that game. The Hawkeyes got off 69 shots but missed 38, leading to a lot of long rebounds that Illinois tracked down. Joe Toussaint and Jordan Bohannon were a combined 3-for-12 from the field, and the only help that the Iowa guards got came from Tony Perkins off the bench. If Iowa’s not hitting shots, it has to be able to rebound to have any real chance.

Scouting the Cyclones:

Will a fast pace prove too much for the Cyclones to handle? Iowa State has been winning with defense to this point in the season, but the Cyclones do have some issues of their own. They turn the ball over far too often; they just have been able to offset their own issues by coming up with steals.
The other big concern is that the Cyclones don’t shoot the ball all that well. Izaiah Brockington is a quality weapon from the perimeter, but beyond him, Caleb Grill doesn’t shoot enough, and Gabe Kalscheur and Tyrese Hunter don’t shoot all that well. The Cyclones much prefer to have a game in the 60s or 70s, which isn’t the way that Iowa wants to play at all. Unless Iowa State can assert its own tempo, it’s going to be tough for the Cyclones to get the job done here.

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Iowa will Cover If: The Hawkeyes can speed up the Cyclones and force them to turn the ball over. If Iowa State turns the ball over 15 to 20 times, Iowa’s going to get a lot of easy looks at the hoop. The Hawkeyes are at their best when they’re able to get out and run and take close to 70 shots a game, which Iowa State wants to avoid at all costs.

Iowa State will Cover If: The Cyclones can outrebound the Hawkeyes and deny them multiple looks at the hoop. Iowa is still trying to adjust to life without Luka Garza, and the Hawkeyes have been badly beaten on the boards in their past two games. Iowa State doesn’t have Purdue’s depth on the interior or Illinois’ huge advantage in the paint, but the Cyclones can battle evenly on the boards in this matchup.

Dan’s Best Prop Bets

I can’t see Iowa State slowing down Iowa in this one. The last time the Hawkeyes and the Cyclones played a game in Ames that went under 150 points was back in 2007, a 56-47 rock fight. Otherwise, the winner in Ames has managed to get to 80 points every time, and 75 has been the minimum winning score in the past 12 meetings between these teams. This game should feature a fair amount of points.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Iowa needs to get back on track here, and I can’t see Iowa State’s unbeaten record holding up here. The Hawkeyes are the more talented team and should be able to set the game at their pace, and if they do, the Cyclones won’t be able to keep up. Give me the Hawkeyes for the cover. Did you know that we employ (2) professional handicappers that win every season that give out their picks for FREE on our free picks page? They’ll start releasing basketball picks on Monday! Bookmark that page and reap the benefits by hitting it daily!

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