No. 3 Iowa State takes its 14-0 record to Texas for a massive Big 12 showdown against Baylor. Bryan Bush breaks down why the Cyclones’ top-10 defense and #2 ranked field goal percentage make them the sharp best bet at the 4.5-point spread.
The Setup: Iowa State at Baylor
Iowa State rolls into Waco as 4.5 to 5-point road favorites against Baylor, and I can already hear some of you asking: Really? A road favorite in a Big 12 game? Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just justified, it might actually be a gift. The Cyclones are sitting at 9-0 with the #2 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country at 126.6 and the #7 adjusted defensive efficiency at 94.7. That’s a complete team. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in at #77 overall with a massive defensive problem – they’re ranked #263 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 111.6. That’s not a typo. Let me walk you through why this spread makes perfect sense and why I’m actually looking at Iowa State to cover on the road.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Iowa State at Baylor
Date: January 7, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Foster Pavilion, Waco, TX
Spread: Iowa State -4.5 to -5
Total: 155.5
Moneyline: Iowa State -220, Baylor +180
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is absolutely massive, and that’s where this game lives and dies. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Iowa State’s adjusted net efficiency sits at #4 nationally with a 31.9 rating. Baylor? They’re at #77 with a 9.7 adjusted net rating. That’s a 22.2-point gap in adjusted efficiency – and here’s why that matters: these numbers account for strength of schedule and pace, giving us a true apples-to-apples comparison of how these teams actually perform.
But let’s break down where that gap comes from. Iowa State is scoring 131.9 points per 100 possessions (offensive rating ranked #20) while allowing just 90.2 (defensive rating ranked #12). That’s elite two-way basketball. Baylor’s putting up 123.2 per 100 possessions (#55) but surrendering 112.9 (#289). Do that math over 72 possessions – the likely pace given both teams sit around 71.5 possessions per game – and you’re looking at Iowa State winning this game by double digits on a neutral court. The fact they’re only laying 4.5 to 5 on the road tells me the market is giving Baylor too much credit for home court.
Here’s what really seals it for me: Iowa State ranks #1 nationally in field goal percentage at 54.9% and #3 in effective field goal percentage at 62.8%. They’re shooting 43.8% from three (#3 nationally). Now match that offensive firepower against a Baylor defense allowing 46.4% from the field (#310 nationally) and 34.2% from three (#254). That’s not just a mismatch – it’s a recipe for the Cyclones to shoot lights out in Waco.
Iowa State’s Situation
The Cyclones are absolutely rolling through their schedule at 9-0, and the shooting numbers tell you everything about why. That 54.9% field goal percentage leads the entire country, and they’re doing it with balance. Milan Momcilovic is dropping 18.3 points per game (#81 nationally), Joshua Jefferson adds 17.6 (#105), and Tamin Lipsey contributes 16.8 (#150). But it’s not just scoring – Jefferson is dishing 5.4 assists per game (#46 nationally) and Lipsey adds 5.7 (#40). That’s elite playmaking from your frontcourt and backcourt.
Defensively, Iowa State is creating havoc with 11.1 steals per game (#7 nationally) while keeping their own turnovers to just 10.1 per game (#43). That turnover ratio of 0.1 ranks #17 in the country. They’re forcing you into mistakes while protecting the basketball themselves – that’s winning basketball, plain and simple.
The one concern? They’re not a great rebounding team at 35.9 boards per game (#229) and their offensive rebounding percentage of 33.4% ranks just #105. Against Baylor’s #4 offensive rebounding rate at 39.2%, that could be an issue. But when you’re shooting 54.9% from the field, you don’t need as many second chances.
Baylor’s Situation
Baylor’s got some firepower – Cameron Carr is the #6 scorer in the country at 21.8 points per game, and Tounde Yessoufou adds 17.8 (#101). They’re scoring 87.8 per game (#38 nationally), so they can put points on the board. That offensive rebounding rate of 39.2% (#4 nationally) is legit, and it’s kept them in games when their shooting goes cold.
But here’s the massive problem: they can’t stop anybody. Allowing 81.0 points per game ranks #325 nationally – that’s bottom-tier defense in Division I basketball. The collegebasketballdata.com numbers confirm it’s not just raw scoring – their adjusted defensive efficiency of 111.6 (#263) shows they’re getting torched even when you account for opponent quality and pace. They’re allowing 46.4% shooting from the field (#310) and their defensive rating of 112.9 ranks #289 nationally.
Looking at their recent form, they just lost 69-63 at TCU, and before that they were beating up on cupcakes – Arlington Baptist, Southern, Alcorn State, Norfolk State. They haven’t faced anything close to Iowa State’s caliber lately, and that defensive vulnerability is about to get exposed.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Baylor’s defense – ranked #310 in opponent field goal percentage and #263 in adjusted defensive efficiency – slow down Iowa State’s #1 field goal percentage and #2 adjusted offensive efficiency? The answer is no.
Let’s quantify the shooting matchup. Iowa State shoots 54.9% from the field and 43.8% from three. Baylor allows 46.4% from the field and 34.2% from three. Even if Iowa State regresses slightly on the road, they should still shoot well over 50% in this game. At 72 possessions, that’s the difference between 80 points and 90 points right there – and I’m expecting closer to 90.
The offensive rebounding battle matters, and Baylor’s 39.2% rate (#4) against Iowa State’s 33.4% (#105) could give the Bears some extra possessions. But here’s the counter: Iowa State forces 11.1 steals per game (#7) and commits just 10.1 turnovers (#43). They’re going to create transition opportunities off Baylor mistakes, and in transition, that elite shooting becomes even more dangerous.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 22.2-point gap in adjusted net efficiency is enormous. Even giving Baylor 3-4 points for home court, Iowa State should be favored by 7-8 points on a neutral court. Getting them at -4.5 to -5 feels like we’re getting a discount.
My Play
Iowa State -4.5 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with the Cyclones on the road. The efficiency gap is too massive, the shooting matchup too favorable, and Baylor’s defensive issues too glaring. Iowa State has the #2 adjusted offense in the country going against the #263 adjusted defense. That’s a 15-20 point swing in expected performance right there.
The main risk here is if Baylor gets hot from three and wins the offensive rebounding battle by a huge margin, extending possessions and keeping this close. But Iowa State’s ability to protect the basketball (10.1 turnovers per game) and create transition opportunities (11.1 steals) should neutralize that advantage.
I’m projecting Iowa State 88, Baylor 79. The Cyclones shoot well over 50% from the field, get enough stops on a bad Baylor defense, and cover the 4.5 comfortably. This is one of those spots where the efficiency numbers and the eye test align perfectly – Iowa State is just the better team, and the market isn’t making them lay enough points. Take the road favorite and cash the ticket.
