Kansas Jayhawks vs. Baylor Bears Pick ATS | Mar 2/24

Kansas Jayhawks (21-7 SU, 12-16 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (20-8 SU, 16-9-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, March 2nd, 1:00 PM (ET)

Where: Foster Pavilion, TX, Waco

TV: ABC

Point Spread: KAN +6/BAYL -6

Total: 145.5

Money Line: Kansas Jayhawks +203/-255

Notable Injuries

Jayhawks

• Kevin McCullar Jr. (Out) Knee

Bears

• Langston Love (Questionable) Knee
• Yanis Ndjonga (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into tonight’s game against Baylor, Kansas has a 21-7 overall record, including a 9-6 mark in Big 12 play. The Jayhawks have been dominant at home, going 15-1 with an average scoring margin of +13.8 points per game. On the road, though, Kansas is just 6-6, and over the team’s last 10 road games, they are 4-6.

So far this season, the Jayhawks have been the underdog in just two games, and they have yet to win one of those contests. Their average scoring margin on the road is +2.2 points per game, and their record in Big 12 games is 9-6.

So far this season, the over/under record for Kansas games is 12-16. Today’s over/under line of 145.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this season (145.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 139 points, which is lower than today’s line. In their last 10 games, their over/under record is 3-7.

Against the spread this season, Kansas has a record of 12-16. On the road, their ATS mark is 4-8, and they are 1-1 vs. the spread as the underdog this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Jayhawks have gone 4-6.

Coming into this game, Baylor is 14-1 at home this season, and they have won three straight games at home. Over their last 10 games at home, the Bears have gone 8-2, and they are 17-2 this season when favored.

So far this year, Baylor has gone 20-8, and they are 9-5 in Big 12 play. The Bears have a scoring margin of +18.8 points per game at home, compared to just +0.2 points per game on the road.

So far this season, the over/under record for Baylor is 13-13, and today’s line of 145.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (148.1). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 140 points, and their OU record during this stretch is 1-2. Over their last 10 games, the average scoring total is 150 points, and their OU record is 5-5.

As the favorite, Baylor has gone 12-6-1 vs. the spread this season. Their home ATS record is 10-4-1, and they are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games as the favorite. Over their last 3 home games, the Bears are 1-1-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

The Kansas offense put up 68 points verus vs. BYU in their latest game. Overall their field goal percentage was 39% while connecting on 3 threes. Hunter Dickinson led the team in scoring, putting up 17 points. Additionally, Dajuan Harris Jr. contributed 12 points for the Jayhawks.

So far, the Jayhawks’ defense is ranked 68th in the country at 67.9 points per contest. In today’s game, the Kansas defense will be looking to once again do a good job defending the three-point line, as they gave up just 3 three-pointers while giving up 76 points.

The Baylor offense is coming off a game in which they scored 62 points vs. TCU. Overall their field goal percentage was 37.7% while connecting on 9 threes. The top scorer for the Bears was Yves Missi with 16 points, while Ja’Kobe Walter also chipped in with 16 points.

At this time, the Bears’ defense is positioned 130th in the country, permitting 70.8 points per game. So far, the Baylor defense is giving up an average of 8.0 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.4 times per game (547th).

Betting Trends

• In their last three games away from home, the Jayhawks have a straight-up record of 1-2 while going 1-2 vs. the spread. The team averaged 62 points per game in this stretch.
• Baylor has played well in their previous three home games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 75 points per game while allowing 71. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
• Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Kansas has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
• The Bears have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Jayhawks have had their struggles putting points on the board scoring 70 or fewer in five of their last six and with Kevin McCullar Jr. sidelined, that isn’t likely to change today. The spread is a little higher than I’d like to lay, but Baylor is a strong home club 12-2 with the only two defeats coming in overtime. Lay the 5.5 points.