Kennesaw State is walking into a buzzsaw without their 20-PPG engine Simeon Cottle, and Bryan Bash is happily laying the short number with a Liberty squad that prints money when it comes to offensive execution.
The Setup: Liberty at Kennesaw State
Liberty’s laying 1.5 to 2 points on the road at Kennesaw State Thursday night, and if you’re thinking “that’s awfully tight for a team with a seven-game better record,” you’re asking the right question. The Flames are 23-4 and riding a 15-1 conference mark, while Kennesaw sits at 16-11 with an 8-8 CUSA slate. But the market isn’t stupid—it’s telling us something about efficiency, matchups, and one massive absence.
When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, Liberty’s adjusted net rating sits at +7.1 (94th nationally), while Kennesaw State checks in at -0.9 (185th). That’s an eight-point gap in adjusted efficiency, yet the spread is barely two points. The market is screaming that raw records don’t tell the full story here, and after breaking down the tempo, shooting splits, and one critical injury situation, I’m leaning into what the numbers are really saying about this CUSA clash at VyStar Arena.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Liberty at Kennesaw State
Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: VyStar Arena
Spread: Liberty -1.5 to -2
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: Liberty -130 | Kennesaw State +110
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s where it gets interesting. Liberty’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 60th nationally at 117.2, while their defense sits 194th at 110.1. Kennesaw State? They’re 160th offensively (109.5) and 201st defensively (110.4). On paper, that’s a Liberty advantage across the board—roughly 7.7 points on offense and a negligible 0.3 points on defense.
But the market is pricing in two critical factors. First, Kennesaw State’s leading scorer Simeon Cottle (20.0 PPG, 34th nationally) is listed as OUT due to suspension. That’s a massive blow—Cottle accounts for nearly a quarter of their offensive production. Second, Liberty’s road ATS record is actually solid at 6-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play, but they’ve been laying bigger numbers and failing to cover lately (1-4 ATS in their last five at home).
The total at 153.5 is also fascinating. The pace blend projects around 66 possessions—neither team forces extreme tempo. Liberty runs at 64.0 possessions per game (312th nationally), while Kennesaw pushes it slightly at 67.5 (167th). But here’s the kicker: Liberty’s true shooting percentage sits at 63.8% (2nd nationally) with an effective field goal mark of 61.7% (1st). Kennesaw’s shooting quality is nowhere close—56.6% true shooting and 52.5% eFG%. That’s a 7.2-point gap in shooting efficiency and a 9.2-point gap in effective field goal percentage. The market expects both teams to push 75-78 points, but Liberty’s elite shooting against Kennesaw’s 201st-ranked defense without their leading scorer? I’m not buying that total.
Liberty Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Liberty does two things at an elite level: they shoot the absolute lights out, and they don’t turn it over. That #1 effective field goal percentage isn’t a typo—they’re converting at 61.7%, fueled by 52.1% overall shooting (2nd nationally) and 40.2% from three (4th). When you combine that with just 8.9 turnovers per game (4th) and a 0.1 turnover ratio (9th), you’re looking at an offense that maximizes every possession.
The Flames have five guys who can score, led by Brett Decker Jr. (19.6 PPG, 42nd nationally) and Kaden Metheny (14.1 PPG). But the most intriguing piece is Zach Cleveland, who averages 10.2 points, 9.0 rebounds (44th nationally), and 8.4 assists (3rd nationally). That’s a do-everything forward who facilitates at an elite level—17.4 assists per game as a team ranks 24th nationally.
The concern? Liberty’s rebounding is catastrophic. They rank 359th in rebounds per game (29.6) and dead last at 365th in offensive rebound percentage (18.9%). Against a Kennesaw team that ranks 20th in total rebounds (40.5) and 26th in offensive rebounding rate (34.8%), that’s a 15.9-point gap in rebounding edge. Liberty’s going to get crushed on the glass—they just need to make sure it doesn’t turn into second-chance points.
Kennesaw State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Without Cottle, Kennesaw’s offense loses its primary creator and 20 points per game. That drops them from 84.3 PPG (27th nationally) to something far more pedestrian. The supporting cast—Braedan Lue (10.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG), Ramone Seals (10.6 PPG), and Trey Simpson (10.5 PPG)—is solid but not built to carry a full offensive load against a team that defends at 105.5 (117th in defensive rating).
What Kennesaw does have is size and rebounding. That 34.8% offensive rebounding rate and 40.5 boards per game will create extra possessions, and against Liberty’s anemic rebounding, they’ll get second chances. They also block 5.3 shots per game (13th nationally) and defend the perimeter reasonably well (34.2% opponent three-point shooting, 213th).
But here’s the problem: Kennesaw’s recent form is shaky. They’re 5-5 in their last 10 games, scoring just 76.5 PPG in that stretch compared to 84.3 overall. They’ve gone 1-4 ATS at home and 3-7 overall in their last 10. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.5 ranks 160th, and without their leading scorer, that number craters. The head-to-head history also favors Liberty—7-3 straight up in the last 10 meetings, including an 81-73 win earlier this season in early January.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to three factors: Liberty’s shooting efficiency, Kennesaw’s rebounding advantage, and Cottle’s absence. Liberty’s 61.7% eFG% against Kennesaw’s 110.4 defensive rating (201st) is a mismatch—the Flames will generate quality looks all night. The question is whether Kennesaw can create enough extra possessions through offensive rebounding to offset their shooting disadvantage.
The assist-to-turnover ratio tells the story. Liberty’s 1.95 ratio (17.37 assists to 8.89 turnovers) dwarfs Kennesaw’s 1.22 (14.37 assists to 11.78 turnovers). That’s a 10-point gap in turnover edge, meaning Liberty will get cleaner possessions and Kennesaw will cough it up more often. When you combine that with Liberty’s elite shooting, the Flames should control tempo and execution.
Kennesaw’s home court hasn’t been a fortress—they’re 11-3 overall at home but just 3-7-1 ATS. They’ve also struggled in conference play at home, going 2-5-1 ATS in CUSA games. Without Cottle, their offensive rating projects to drop significantly, and Liberty’s ability to limit turnovers means fewer transition opportunities for the Owls.
The total is where I’m most interested. The model projects 147 points—a full 6.5 points under the market number of 153.5. Liberty’s pace (64.0) is glacial, and even with Kennesaw pushing slightly, we’re looking at around 66 possessions. Kennesaw’s recent scoring (76.5 PPG in their last 10) without Cottle suggests they’ll struggle to reach 75, and Liberty’s been inconsistent offensively in conference play (78.4 PPG). I’m projecting something closer to Liberty 76, Kennesaw 71—a 147-point game that sails under.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Liberty -2 and the Under 153.5. The Flames have the efficiency edge, the shooting advantage, and the discipline to execute in a slower-paced game. Kennesaw’s rebounding will keep it close, but without Cottle, they don’t have the firepower to hang with a Liberty team that ranks 1st in effective field goal percentage and top-five in turnover rate.
The under is the sharper play. The model projects 147, and with Liberty’s deliberate pace and Kennesaw missing their leading scorer, I’m expecting a grind-it-out game in the low 70s for both teams. Give me Liberty to cover by 4-6 points in a 76-70 type game that finishes well under the total. This is a classic case of the market overrating home court and underrating the impact of losing a 20 PPG scorer. Ride the efficiency, take the under, and trust the numbers.
