The #24 Louisville Cardinals bring a top-10 offensive efficiency rating into Fort Worth this Saturday for a high-stakes neutral-site clash against Baylor. While the Bears feature the nation’s 6th-leading scorer in Cameron Carr, the analytical gap suggests Louisville’s #17-ranked defense provides the stability needed to secure a win and cover the 6.5-point spread. This efficiency mismatch makes the Cardinals a strong best bet in a game where defensive stops will be at a premium.
The Setup: Louisville at Baylor
Louisville’s laying 6.5 points against Baylor at Dickies Arena on Saturday, and if you’re wondering why a 13-11 Big 12 team is getting less than a touchdown against a ranked ACC squad, the answer lives in the efficiency numbers. The Cardinals check in at #10 in adjusted net efficiency with a +28.1 rating, while Baylor sits at #44 with a +16.2 mark. That’s an 11.9-point gap in Louisville’s favor, which means this 6.5-point spread is actually giving Baylor about five points of cushion they haven’t earned on paper. The market’s being generous to the Bears here, and I want to understand why before we blindly back the ranked team. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Louisville’s elite two-way profile—#10 adjusted offense, #17 adjusted defense—should dominate Baylor’s struggling defensive unit that ranks #123 nationally. But neutral court games in February have a way of exposing narratives, and this 4:00 ET tip gives us a legitimate test case for whether Louisville’s efficiency advantage translates when neither team has home-court edge.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Louisville vs Baylor
Date: Saturday, February 14, 2026
Time: 4:00 PM ET
Location: Dickies Arena (Neutral Site)
Spread: Louisville -6.5
Total: 163.5/164
Moneyline: Louisville -300 to -375, Baylor +250 to +295
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The spread sits at 6.5, but the efficiency model projects Louisville by nearly 12. That’s a massive gap, and it tells me the market is either pricing in neutral-court variance or respecting something about Baylor’s ceiling that the season-long numbers don’t capture. Louisville’s offensive rating of 124.6 (#10 nationally) matched against Baylor’s defensive rating of 106.4 (#123) creates an 18.2-point advantage for the Cardinals’ attack. Flip it around: Baylor’s 122.5 offensive rating (#23) against Louisville’s 96.5 defensive rating (#17) gives the Bears a 26.0-point edge when they have the ball. But here’s the problem—Baylor’s defense is so leaky that they can’t protect leads or stops when they need them most.
The total opened around 163.5-164, and the model projects 174.9. That’s nearly 11 points of separation, which screams overlay on the Over. The pace blend sits at 70.8 possessions, right in the middle of both teams’ comfort zones. Louisville averages 87.1 points per game (#16 nationally) at a 71.6 pace (#26), while Baylor puts up 83.9 (#37) at a 70.0 pace (#60). Neither team slows the game to a crawl, and both offenses rank inside the top 50 in efficiency. When two capable scoring units meet on a neutral floor with limited defensive resistance from one side, the math points toward points.
Louisville Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Cardinals bring a 60.6% true shooting percentage (#25) and a 56.5% effective field goal percentage (#26) that reflects elite shot quality. Ryan Conwell leads the way at 19.7 points per game, while Mikel Brown Jr. adds 16.7 and dishes 5.3 assists. That’s a balanced backcourt that can score in transition or halfcourt sets, and Louisville’s 17.9 assists per game (#20) show they’re moving the ball and finding open looks.
Defensively, Louisville holds opponents to 40.4% shooting (#27) and posts a 99.1 defensive rating (#31). They’re not elite rim protectors—just 3.3 blocks per game (#191)—but they don’t need to be when they’re forcing tough shots and limiting second chances. The concern? Louisville’s 29.8% offensive rebounding rate (#230) is bottom-tier nationally, and Baylor’s 33.2% offensive rebounding rate (#82) could create extra possessions for the Bears. In a tight game, those second-chance points matter.
Baylor Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Baylor’s sitting at 13-11, but Cameron Carr is having a monster season at 21.8 points per game (#6 nationally). Tounde Yessoufou adds 17.8, and Dan Skillings Jr. provides 11.2 points with 7.8 rebounds. That’s a capable trio, and Baylor’s 48.3% field goal percentage (#39) shows they can score efficiently when the offense clicks. The problem is consistency—Baylor’s 3-7 in their last 10 games, averaging just 74.3 points per game with a -4.0 scoring differential in that stretch.
The defense is the real issue. Baylor allows 75.9 points per game (#242) and posts a 108.3 defensive rating (#197) that ranks outside the top 200 nationally. They give up 43.9% shooting from the field (#168) and struggle to generate turnovers with just 6.5 steals per game (#211). Against Louisville’s elite offensive efficiency, Baylor’s defense is going to get tested early and often. The Bears’ best path to covering involves Carr going nuclear and Baylor winning the offensive rebounding battle to create extra possessions.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game hinges on whether Baylor can exploit Louisville’s weak offensive rebounding and whether the Cardinals can consistently attack Baylor’s porous defense. Louisville’s gone 4-5 ATS on the road this season, which tells me they don’t always dominate inferior competition the way the efficiency numbers suggest they should. Baylor’s 3-2 ATS as a road underdog, and while this is technically neutral, the Bears are playing closer to home in Fort Worth.
Louisville’s last five games show a team capable of explosive scoring—118 against NC State, 88 twice—but also prone to clunkers like the 52-point disaster at Duke. Baylor’s recent form is ugly: losses to BYU (94-99), Iowa State (69-72), and Cincinnati (57-67) show a team that can’t string together stops when it matters. The assist-to-turnover ratios favor Louisville (1.56 to 1.36), and the shooting percentage gap (47.0% to 48.3%) is negligible.
The model sees Louisville winning by 11.9, which means Baylor needs to find five points of value somewhere. Can they? Maybe. If Carr and Yessoufou combine for 40-plus and Baylor crashes the offensive glass, they can stay within the number. But Louisville’s two-way efficiency advantage is real, and Baylor’s defensive struggles make it hard to trust them keeping this game competitive deep into the second half.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m backing Louisville -6.5 with moderate confidence. The efficiency gap is too wide to ignore, and Baylor’s defensive rating of 106.4 against Louisville’s 124.6 offensive rating creates a mismatch the Bears can’t overcome. Louisville’s 12-12 ATS record overall isn’t inspiring, but their 18-6 straight-up record shows they win games, and this spread gives them plenty of margin for error. Baylor’s 10-13 ATS and 3-7 record in their last 10 games tells me they’re not covering numbers right now, even with the home-state proximity advantage.
I’m also eyeing the Over 163.5 as a secondary play. The model projects 174.9, and both offenses rank inside the top 50 nationally in efficiency. Louisville averages 87.1 points per game, Baylor averages 83.9, and the defensive resistance from Baylor’s side is minimal. The pace blend sits at 70.8 possessions, which gives both teams enough opportunities to push this total over. Take Louisville to cover and sprinkle the Over if you want the full sweat.
