Wake Forest has been leaking points during a rough stretch, and now they face a Louisville squad that just dismantled Notre Dame. We’re digging into the point spread to see if the Cardinals’ offensive firepower is the best bet to hand the Deacons their fourth home loss of the season.
The Setup: Louisville at Wake Forest
Louisville’s laying 9.5 points on the road at Wake Forest, and honestly, this number feels light. The Cardinals are rolling at 8-1 with one of the most complete profiles in the ACC, while Wake Forest just got boat-raced in four straight losses before squeaking past Florida State by a single point. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t even close. Louisville ranks 9th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at plus-23.9, while Wake Forest sits 50th at plus-13.4. That’s a chasm, not a gap. The Cardinals are elite on both ends—14th in adjusted offense, 30th in adjusted defense. Wake Forest? They’re 87th offensively and 41st defensively. This spread should be in the 11-12 range, and I’m backing Louisville to cover on the road.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Louisville (8-1) @ Wake Forest (7-3)
Date: February 7, 2026
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Venue: LJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
Spread: Louisville -9.5
Total: 160.5/161
Moneyline: Louisville -480, Wake Forest +350
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on Louisville -9.5, and I’m telling you right now—this is a gift. Let’s break down why this should be higher. The adjusted efficiency gap is 10.5 points, which typically translates to a spread in the 11-13 range for a road game. Louisville’s offensive rating of 125.8 ranks 36th nationally, but their adjusted offensive efficiency sits 14th at 122.3. That’s the difference between raw production and quality of competition, and it matters. Wake Forest’s defensive rating of 97.6 looks respectable at 54th, but their adjusted defensive efficiency is 41st at 100.0—they’re allowing exactly one point per possession when you normalize for competition.
The pace differential is minimal—Louisville at 74.1 possessions per game (28th) versus Wake Forest at 71.9 (71st). That’s only about two extra possessions, so this won’t be a track meet. The total sitting at 160.5 makes sense given Louisville’s elite defense (91.7 defensive rating, 19th nationally) and Wake’s recent offensive struggles. But here’s the thing: Louisville scores 93.8 points per game (10th nationally) while holding opponents to just 67.6 (68th). Wake Forest is averaging 84.2 (81st) but giving up 72.7 (169th). The efficiency gap screams double digits, not mid-single digits.
Louisville Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Cardinals are absolutely humming right now, and it starts with balance. Ryan Conwell leads the way at 19.7 points per game (40th nationally), but Mikel Brown Jr. is the engine—16.7 points and 5.3 assists per game (56th in assists). That assist number matters because Louisville ranks 16th nationally in assists per game at 19.2, and they’re taking care of the ball with just 10.7 turnovers per game (67th) and a turnover ratio of 0.1 (17th). That’s elite ball security.
The shooting splits tell the story of efficiency over volume. Louisville’s effective field goal percentage sits at 57.0% (42nd) with a true shooting percentage of 61.6% (24th). They’re getting quality looks and converting at a high rate. Defensively, they’re suffocating—opponents shoot just 37.4% from the field (14th) and 29.7% from three (67th). They’ve held five of their last six opponents under 75 points, with the only exception being that 83-52 beatdown they took at Duke. Outside of that outlier, this defense is lockdown.
Wake Forest Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Wake Forest has talent—Juke Harris is a stud at 20.7 points per game (22nd nationally)—but they’re reeling right now. Four straight losses, and three of those were by double digits. The offensive rating of 112.9 ranks just 155th, and when you adjust for competition, they drop to 87th at 113.3. That’s middling at best. The shooting numbers are concerning: 45.4% from the field (179th), 33.6% from three (178th), and an effective field goal percentage of just 52.5% (154th). They’re not getting efficient looks.
The one area where Wake Forest has an advantage is offensive rebounding—35.9% offensive rebound rate ranks 35th nationally compared to Louisville’s 209th-ranked 30.4%. Tre’Von Spillers and Harris can crash the glass, and they’re generating 206 points off turnovers compared to Louisville’s 167. But here’s the problem: Louisville doesn’t turn it over. The Cardinals rank 17th in turnover ratio, so Wake’s ability to capitalize on mistakes won’t matter if there are no mistakes to capitalize on. Wake’s defense has been porous lately, allowing 90-plus points in two of their last four games.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Louisville’s ability to control tempo and limit second-chance opportunities. Wake Forest wants to push the pace, generate turnovers (9.7 steals per game, 33rd nationally), and attack the offensive glass. Louisville wants to play methodical, efficient basketball and lock down defensively. The Cardinals’ 91.7 defensive rating (19th) versus Wake’s 112.9 offensive rating (155th) is a massive mismatch.
Look at the points in the paint numbers—Wake Forest has 364 compared to Louisville’s 316, but that’s because the Deacs have played two more games. Per-game, they’re nearly identical. The difference is efficiency. Louisville’s true shooting percentage of 61.6% (24th) destroys Wake’s 56.6% (152nd). The Cardinals get better shots, make more of them, and don’t beat themselves with turnovers.
The head-to-head history shows Louisville won 72-59 last year at home, and Wake won 90-65 two years ago at home. But those teams have nothing to do with these rosters. This Louisville squad is fundamentally different—deeper, more efficient, and significantly better defensively. Wake Forest’s recent form is alarming: losses by 18 to NC State, by 21 to Duke, and by 12 to SMU. They’re not stopping anyone right now.
Bash’s Best Bet
Louisville -9.5
I’m laying the points with the Cardinals, and I’m not sweating the road environment. Louisville is the better team by every meaningful metric—adjusted efficiency, offensive rating, defensive rating, turnover ratio, and shooting efficiency. Wake Forest is limping into this game having lost four straight, and their defensive vulnerabilities are glaring. The 10.5-point gap in adjusted net efficiency should translate to a spread closer to 12, which means we’re getting value at 9.5. Louisville wins this by 14-16 points. Take the Cardinals and don’t look back.
