With the Longhorns boasting the #9 adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country, Tuesday’s matchup at the Moody Center serves as a major test for LSU’s struggling perimeter defense.
The Setup: LSU at Texas
Texas is laying 11.5 points at home against LSU on Tuesday night, and the market’s telling you everything you need to know about where these two SEC programs stand right now. The Longhorns are rolling with four straight wins, while LSU limps into Austin having dropped four of their last five. But here’s where it gets interesting: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread feels almost too clean. Texas owns the #9 adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country at 124.7, paired with a #110 defensive mark at 105.9. That’s a net rating of +18.8, sitting at #38 nationally. LSU? They’re at +12.6 (#60 net), with a #52 offense (119.0) and a #119 defense (106.4). That’s a 6.2-point net rating gap before you even factor in home court, and in a conference game at the Moody Center, that’s the kind of edge that produces double-digit spreads.
The question isn’t whether Texas should be favored—they absolutely should. The question is whether 11.5 points accurately reflects the efficiency gap when you account for pace, matchup dynamics, and LSU’s ability to keep this game in the mud.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: LSU Tigers (14-11) at Texas Longhorns (16-9)
Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Stephen C. O’Connell Center
Conference: SEC
Betting Lines:
Spread: Texas -11.5 (Bovada) / -10.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 152.0 (Bovada) / 151.5 (DraftKings)
Moneyline: Texas -850 / LSU +550
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 11.5 because the efficiency data screams Texas dominance. That 6.2-point net rating gap translates to roughly 7 points on a neutral floor, add 3.5 for home court, and you’re sitting right around 10.5 points. The books pushed it to 11.5, likely accounting for LSU’s defensive struggles—they rank #317 in defensive rating at 114.2, which is genuinely awful for a power conference team.
But here’s the wrinkle: pace. LSU plays at a glacial 64.2 possessions per game (#307 nationally), while Texas pushes it slightly faster at 67.6 (#166). The blended pace projects to about 66 possessions, which means fewer opportunities for Texas to exploit that efficiency edge. In a 75-possession game, maybe Texas wins by 15. In a 66-possession game? That spread tightens.
The total of 152 is where I’m raising an eyebrow. Texas averages 85.2 points per game (#22) with a true shooting percentage of 60.8% (#22). LSU scores 80.7 (#86) with a 58.2% true shooting mark (#74). Both offenses are legitimately efficient, and even at LSU’s slow pace, the model projects 160.6 points. That’s 8.6 points over the market number, and in a game where both teams shoot it well and neither defense is elite, I’m not sure how we stay under 152.
LSU Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
LSU’s offense is better than their record suggests. That #52 adjusted offensive efficiency rating is legit, built around a balanced attack led by center Mike Nwoko (16.0 PPG) and point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. (15.2 PPG, 6.2 APG). Thomas ranks #17 nationally in assists per game, and he’s the engine that makes this offense function. Marquel Sutton (12.6 PPG, 8.9 RPG) is a monster on the glass at #49 in rebounds per game, giving LSU second-chance opportunities even when the half-court offense stalls.
The problem is everything else. LSU’s defense ranks #317 in defensive rating, allowing 75.3 points per game (#229). They can’t defend the three-pointer (35.3% opponent rate, #280), and they don’t force turnovers (6.2 steals per game, #241). When you pair that defensive incompetence with a slow pace, you’re relying on your offense to be damn near perfect. Against Texas’s #110 defense, that’s a tough ask.
Texas Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Texas is the more complete team, and it’s not particularly close. That #9 adjusted offensive efficiency is elite, driven by exceptional shooting—55.8% effective field goal percentage (#36) and 49.3% from the field (#24). Matas Vokietaitis (15.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG) and Dailyn Swain (15.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) form a versatile frontcourt that can score inside and out, while Jordan Pope (12.5 PPG) provides perimeter scoring punch.
The Longhorns rebound the ball well (39.1 RPG, #43) and control the glass with a 32.4% offensive rebounding rate (#117). They’re not turnover-prone, and they defend well enough to make life difficult for LSU’s balanced attack. The concern? Texas is 13-12 against the spread this season, and they’ve been inconsistent covering big numbers at home. They beat Ole Miss by 11 and South Carolina by 9 in recent home games—both solid wins, but neither blowouts against inferior competition.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game hinges on whether Texas can push pace and exploit LSU’s defensive vulnerabilities in transition. LSU wants to grind this into a 63-possession rock fight where every possession matters. Texas wants to get out in transition (369 fast break points this season) and create easy looks before LSU’s defense gets set.
The rebounding battle matters more than usual here. Texas holds a 2.2-point edge in rebounding rate, and with LSU ranking just #206 in offensive rebounding percentage at 30.2%, the Longhorns should control the glass. If Texas limits second chances and converts those defensive rebounds into transition opportunities, this spread could balloon.
But if LSU executes in the half-court and forces Texas into contested jumpers, that 11.5-point spread becomes a lot tougher to cover. LSU’s effective field goal percentage of 52.9% (#132) is solid, and they take care of the ball with just 10.7 turnovers per game (#86). In a slow-paced game where LSU doesn’t beat themselves, keeping it within 10 is very much in play.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m staying away from the spread and hammering the OVER 152. Both offenses rank in the top 75 nationally in adjusted efficiency, both teams shoot the ball well, and neither defense is good enough to consistently get stops. The model projects 160.6 points, and even if LSU slows this down, I need both teams to score in the mid-70s to cash. Texas has hit 79 or more in four of their last five games. LSU scored 92 at South Carolina and 87 in a home loss to Mississippi State. The offensive firepower is there.
The market set this total at 152 because of LSU’s slow pace, but pace doesn’t matter if both teams are efficient. Give me the OVER 152 with confidence.
