UAB is a 2.5-point home favorite against a Memphis team desperate to snap a three-game road skid. Handicapper Bash breaks down why the Blazers’ elite ball security—ranking 8th nationally in turnovers—makes them the primary prediction for Thursday night’s AAC showdown.
The Setup: Memphis at UAB
UAB’s sitting at -1.5 to -2 against Memphis on Thursday night at Bartow Arena, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why the Blazers aren’t getting more respect at home with a 7-3 record against a 4-4 Tigers squad, you’re not alone. But here’s the thing—when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line tells you exactly what the market thinks: these teams are damn near identical in quality, and home court is worth about what it should be. Memphis checks in at 5.3 in adjusted net efficiency, good for 113th nationally. UAB? They’re at 7.7, ranked 95th. We’re talking about a 2.4-point gap in efficiency between teams that should theoretically be separated by about three points on a neutral floor. Add home court, and boom—you’ve got your number.
The Tigers are limping into Birmingham having dropped three of their last five, including back-to-back road losses at Wichita State and Tulsa that exposed some serious cracks in their foundation. UAB’s been better but not dominant, sitting at 7-3 with wins that look solid on paper but haven’t exactly screamed “powerhouse.” This is a classic American Athletic Conference grinder, and the market’s treating it exactly like that.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Memphis at UAB
Date: February 5, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Bartow Arena, Birmingham, AL
Bovada:
Spread: UAB -2
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: UAB -135, Memphis +115
DraftKings:
Spread: UAB -1.5
Total: 153.5
Moneyline: UAB -142, Memphis +120
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk tempo first, because it matters here more than you might think. Memphis plays at a 69.9 pace, ranked 138th nationally. UAB? They’re crawling at 65.8, good for 272nd in the country. When you’ve got a pace differential this significant—we’re talking about roughly four fewer possessions per game—every possession becomes magnified. The over/under sitting at 153.5 reflects this perfectly. You’re looking at two teams that should combine for somewhere between 75-80 possessions, and neither offense is exactly lighting the world on fire in terms of efficiency.
Memphis sits at 108.6 in adjusted offensive efficiency (157th nationally), while UAB checks in at 108.4 (163rd). Functionally identical. The difference-maker? Defense. UAB’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 100.7 ranks 47th in the country—that’s legitimately good. Memphis is at 103.3, ranked 90th. Still respectable, but there’s a meaningful gap there. That three-point defensive efficiency edge for UAB is worth about a point and a half on a neutral court, maybe two points at home.
The market’s basically telling you this: UAB’s home court advantage plus their defensive edge equals a small favorite, but not much more. This isn’t a spot where the Blazers should be laying a field goal. It’s a coin flip with a slight lean, and the line reflects that reality.
Memphis Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
What does Memphis do well? They crash the offensive glass like their lives depend on it. That 37.7% offensive rebounding rate ranks 10th nationally, and it’s genuinely elite. When you can generate second-chance opportunities at that clip, you’re essentially adding possessions to a slow-paced game, which is exactly what the Tigers need given their offensive efficiency issues.
Dug McDaniel runs the show at point guard, dishing 6.4 assists per game (13th in the nation), and he’s the engine that makes everything work. When he’s controlling tempo and finding shooters, Memphis can score. The problem? They’re shooting 43.2% from the field (281st) and just 32.4% from three (228th). That’s rough. Their effective field goal percentage of 49.0% ranks 294th nationally, and you can’t win consistently when you’re that inefficient unless you’re dominating the glass—which, to their credit, they are.
Defensively, Memphis is solid. They hold opponents to 41.3% shooting (96th nationally) and 31.8% from three (144th). The problem isn’t their defense—it’s that their offense can’t consistently capitalize when they get stops.
UAB Breakdown: The Counterpoint
UAB wins by controlling the glass and protecting the basketball. They’re pulling down 44.3 rebounds per game, ranked 8th in the country. That’s absurd. When you combine that rebounding dominance with a turnover rate that ranks 38th nationally (just 10.0 turnovers per game), you’re looking at a team that maximizes possessions in a slow-paced environment.
Chance Westry leads the way at 15.9 points per game, and he’s got help from Jacob Meyer (14.7 PPG) and Ahmad Robinson (12.0 PPG). The Blazers have balance, and in a grinder like this, balance matters. The problem? They can’t shoot from distance. That 26.9% three-point percentage ranks 357th nationally, and it’s a legitimate concern against a Memphis defense that can pack the paint and dare you to beat them from outside.
Where UAB separates itself is on the defensive end. That 100.7 adjusted defensive efficiency is legit, and they defend the three-point line exceptionally well, holding opponents to just 29.1% (50th nationally). In a game where neither team shoots it particularly well, that defensive edge becomes the difference.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one thing: the battle on the glass. You’ve got Memphis ranked 10th in offensive rebounding percentage going up against UAB ranked 8th in total rebounding. Something’s gotta give. Whoever wins the rebounding battle likely controls enough possessions to cover in a game that’s going to feature maybe 75-76 total possessions.
Memphis needs to push tempo—that 69.9 pace needs to creep closer to 72 or 73 to give them enough possessions to overcome their offensive inefficiency. UAB wants to slow this thing to a crawl, grind it out in the half-court, and force Memphis to execute in the half-court against their 47th-ranked adjusted defense.
The other factor? Memphis has been terrible on the road lately. That 59-74 loss at Wichita State and 66-83 drubbing at Tulsa show a team that struggles away from home. UAB’s not unbeatable at Bartow Arena—they lost to South Florida and Tulsa at home earlier this season—but they’re 7-3 overall and playing with confidence.
The total at 153.5 feels about right given the pace and efficiency numbers. You’re looking at a game that should land somewhere in the 75-78 point range for the winner and 70-73 for the loser. That puts you right around the number.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the points with UAB -1.5 to -2. Look, Memphis has the offensive rebounding edge, but UAB’s overall rebounding dominance and defensive efficiency give them the edge in a game that’s going to be decided by three or four possessions. The Blazers protect the basketball better, they defend better, and they’re at home against a Memphis team that’s shown it can’t win on the road.
The efficiency numbers tell you these teams are close, but UAB’s 47th-ranked adjusted defense against Memphis’s 157th-ranked adjusted offense is a mismatch. In a slow-paced game where every possession matters, I’ll take the team that defends better and takes care of the basketball. Give me UAB by four or five in a game that stays comfortably under the total. UAB -1.5 is the play.
