The Miami Hurricanes travel to Winston-Salem as narrow 1.5-point underdogs, but the efficiency metrics suggest the wrong team might be favored. Bryan Bush breaks down why Miami’s #15-ranked adjusted defense is the key to an outright road victory at the LJVM Coliseum.
The Setup: Miami at Wake Forest
Wake Forest is laying 1.5 points at home against Miami on Wednesday night, and here’s the thing – this line is telling us the books see these teams as basically even. I’m not buying it. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, there’s a clear separation here that should have Miami as a small road favorite, not catching points. The Hurricanes check in at #16 nationally in adjusted net efficiency with a 20.0 rating, while Wake sits at #50 with a 13.4 mark. That’s not a negligible gap – that’s a 6.6-point difference in expected performance against an average opponent on a neutral floor. The fact that Miami is getting points in this spot? I’m all over it.
This is a classic ACC mid-week game where the better team is being undervalued because of home court perception. Miami comes in at 8-2 with wins in five straight, while Wake Forest sits at 7-3 but just got absolutely demolished by Vanderbilt 98-67 in their last home game. Let me walk you through why this number doesn’t make sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Miami @ Wake Forest
Date: January 7, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: LJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC
DraftKings Spread: Wake Forest -1.5
Over/Under: 156.5 (DraftKings) / 155.5 (Bovada)
Moneyline: Wake Forest -105, Miami -115 (Bovada)
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency gap here is what jumps off the page. Miami’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 116.6 (#48 nationally), while Wake Forest checks in at 113.3 (#87). That’s a 3.3-point advantage per 100 possessions for the Hurricanes on offense. But here’s where it gets really interesting – the defensive side is where Miami separates. The Hurricanes rank #15 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 96.6, compared to Wake’s #41 ranking at 100.0. That’s another 3.4-point swing per 100 possessions.
Do that math over 72 possessions – splitting the difference between Miami’s 70.7 pace (#112) and Wake’s 71.9 pace (#71) – and you’re looking at roughly a 4.8-point advantage for Miami in expected performance. Even giving Wake Forest three points for home court, Miami should still be favored by close to two points in this matchup.
The raw defensive numbers back this up. Miami is holding opponents to 65.3 points per game (#30 nationally) and limiting them to just 39.1% shooting from the field (#38). Wake Forest is giving up 72.7 points per game (#169) and allowing 41.6% shooting (#106). That’s not just better defense from Miami – it’s elite versus merely solid, and in a conference game where both teams know each other’s tendencies, that defensive edge matters even more.
Miami’s Situation
The Hurricanes are rolling right now with five straight wins, and they’re doing it with balanced scoring and lockdown defense. Malik Reneau is putting up 20.2 points per game (#30 nationally), giving them a legitimate go-to scorer, while point guard Tre Donaldson is facilitating at an elite level with 5.8 assists per game (#35). That combination of scoring punch and playmaking is exactly what you need in road conference games.
What stands out from collegebasketballdata.com is Miami’s ability to score efficiently without relying on the three-ball. They’re shooting 50.8% from the field (#26) and posting a 56.6% effective field goal percentage (#51), which tells me they’re getting quality looks inside. With 438 points in the paint through 10 games, they’re averaging 43.8 points in the paint per contest – that’s elite interior scoring.
The one concern is free throw shooting at just 66.4% (#314), which is legitimately bad. If this game comes down to the final possessions and Miami needs to make free throws, that’s a potential issue. But their offensive rating of 120.6 (#65) and defensive rating of 92.8 (#25) suggest they won’t need to rely on free throws to win this game.
Wake Forest’s Situation
Wake Forest has Juke Harris putting up 20.7 points per game (#22 nationally), but after him, there’s a significant drop-off. Tre’Von Spillers adds 14.2 points (#393), but nobody else is consistently creating their own offense. That’s a problem against Miami’s #15 adjusted defense, which has the personnel to make Harris work for everything.
The Deacons do have one significant advantage – offensive rebounding. Their 35.9% offensive rebound rate ranks #35 nationally, compared to Miami’s 31.5% (#165). That’s a real edge, and it’s how Wake Forest generates extra possessions. But here’s the thing – when you’re not shooting efficiently (45.4% from the field, #179), those extra possessions don’t translate to enough points.
Wake’s recent form is concerning. That 98-67 home loss to Vanderbilt exposed some serious defensive issues, and while they bounced back with a win over Virginia Tech, they also lost at NC State 70-57. Their offensive rating of 112.9 (#155) is significantly worse than Miami’s, and in a game projected to be in the 150s, that efficiency gap is massive.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Miami’s ability to defend without fouling and limit Wake Forest’s offensive rebounding. The Deacons rank #35 in offensive rebound rate, but Miami’s defense is disciplined enough to box out and limit second chances. When Wake Forest is forced into half-court sets against set defenses, their #179 field goal percentage becomes a major liability.
The three-point defense matchup heavily favors Miami. Wake Forest is shooting just 33.6% from deep (#178), while Miami is holding opponents to 31.6% from three (#135). That’s a recipe for Wake Forest to have one of those frustrating ACC nights where nothing falls from the perimeter. I keep coming back to those defensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore – a 3.4-point per 100 possession gap is significant.
On the other end, Miami’s balanced attack should find success against Wake’s #106-ranked opponent field goal percentage defense. With three guys averaging double figures and capable of attacking the rim, the Hurricanes have multiple ways to score. Wake Forest will need to rely heavily on Harris, and if Miami can make him work for 25-30 possessions, the Deacons simply don’t have enough secondary scoring.
The pace will favor Miami slightly. Both teams play in the low 70s in possessions per game, so this won’t be a track meet. That controlled tempo plays into Miami’s hands because it allows their defense to get set and limits Wake Forest’s transition opportunities where they generate 118 fast break points through 10 games.
My Play
The Pick: Miami +1.5 (2.5 units)
I’m laying 2.5 units on Miami getting points in this spot. The efficiency gap is too significant, the defensive advantage is too pronounced, and Wake Forest’s recent home loss to Vanderbilt shows they’re vulnerable at LJVM Coliseum. Miami should win this game outright by 3-5 points, something like 79-75.
The main risk here is if Wake Forest gets hot from three and Harris goes nuclear for 30-plus points. But even considering that possibility, the #15 adjusted defensive efficiency is just too massive to ignore. Miami has the better team, the better defense, and the better recent form. Getting points with them feels like a gift.
I’ve considered Wake’s home court and offensive rebounding advantage, and the defensive gap is still too extreme. When a team ranks #15 defensively against a #41, and you’re getting points? That’s value. Take Miami and cash the ticket.
