The Setup: Montana State at Weber State
Weber State’s getting 1.5 points at home against Montana State on Thursday night, and the market is basically saying this game’s a toss-up. I’m here to tell you the market’s wrong. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t the coin flip the oddsmakers are suggesting. Montana State sits at #134 in adjusted net rating with a +3.2 mark, while Weber State checks in at #202 with a -2.2 figure. That’s a 5.4-point gap in net efficiency, and we’re getting Montana State laying essentially nothing on the road. The Bobcats have won five straight in this series, and while historical trends don’t always translate, there’s real substance behind Montana State’s recent dominance here. This is a Big Sky conference matchup where the better team is being undervalued, and I’m locking in on the Bobcats to cover what should be a comfortable number.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 19, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Dee Events Center, Ogden, UT
Records: Montana State (15-11) at Weber State (13-14)
Conference: Big Sky
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Montana State -1 (Bovada) / Weber State -1.5 (DraftKings)
- Total: 148.5
- Moneyline: Weber State -110 / Montana State -110
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market’s treating this like a pick’em, and I get why on the surface. Weber State’s at home, both teams are hovering around .500, and the moneyline’s dead even at -110 both ways. But here’s where the market’s missing the boat: Montana State ranks #142 in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Weber State’s #134, which looks close. But defense tells the real story. The Bobcats check in at #139 defensively, while Weber State sits way down at #261. That’s a massive gap. Montana State’s defensive rating of 107.2 is nearly six points better than Weber State’s 113.0 mark, and in a conference game where both teams know each other’s tendencies, that defensive edge matters. The projected pace of 67.9 possessions favors Montana State’s ability to control tempo at 66.4 possessions per game versus Weber State’s slightly faster 69.4 clip. When you factor in a standard 3.5-point home court advantage and apply a 10% conference game boost, the model projects Montana State by 2.1 points. We’re getting them at -1, which means we’re getting value on the better team.
Montana State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bobcats bring a balanced offensive attack that ranks #97 in offensive rating at 115.5, and they’re elite at taking care of the basketball. Their 10.1 turnovers per game ranks #50 nationally, and their 0.1 turnover ratio sits at #32. That’s crucial against a Weber State defense that forces 11.2 turnovers per game but gives up 77.1 points per contest. Montana State’s three-point shooting at 36.6% ranks #49 nationally, and their true shooting percentage of 58.2% (#71) shows they’re getting quality looks. Davian Brown leads at 14.4 points per game, Patrick McMahon adds 14.2, and Jed Miller chips in 12.9. That’s three guys who can score in double figures consistently, and Weber State doesn’t have the defensive personnel to match up across the board. The Bobcats are 8-5-1 ATS on the road this season and 13-9-1 ATS overall, showing they consistently outperform expectations. They’ve covered in their last road win at Montana (82-71), and they’re 9-4 in Big Sky play with a 3-3 road conference record that’s better than it looks.
Weber State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Weber State’s got some offensive firepower, scoring 81.6 points per game (#65 nationally) with a 114.4 offensive rating. Jace Whiting leads at 14.3 points, Trevor Hennig adds 13.9, and Tijan Saine dishes 4.3 assists per game (#125 nationally). They’re better on the glass than Montana State, grabbing 37.4 rebounds per game (#83) compared to the Bobcats’ 33.4 (#282). That 31.6% offensive rebounding rate (#148) could create second-chance opportunities. But here’s the problem: they can’t stop anyone. That 113.0 defensive rating ranks #261 nationally, and they’re allowing 46.5% shooting from the field (#302). They’ve lost four of their last six games, and in those losses, they’re giving up an average of 90 points. The home court advantage at Dee Events Center is real—they’re 8-5 at home this season—but they’re just 4-3 at home in Big Sky play. The betting trends show Weber State is 0-5 straight up in their last five against Montana State, and while they’re 13-4 at home historically in this series, recent form matters more than ancient history.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Weber State can overcome their defensive deficiencies with offensive firepower and home cooking. The pace projection of 67.9 possessions slightly favors Montana State’s preference for a slower tempo, which limits Weber State’s transition opportunities where they score 390 fast break points this season. The Bobcats’ ability to protect the ball (10.1 turnovers per game) against Weber State’s 7.3 steals per game means fewer easy buckets in transition for the Wildcats. The rebounding battle is where Weber State has a legitimate edge—that +4 rebound margin per game could matter—but Montana State’s shooting efficiency (54.4% eFG% versus Weber State’s 52.6%) should neutralize second-chance points. The head-to-head history shows Montana State winning 91-88 in the most recent meeting on January 25th, and five of the last six meetings have gone over the total. Both teams shoot it well enough to push this total toward 150-plus, but the key is Montana State’s defense clamping down in crucial possessions. Weber State’s 72.7% free throw shooting (#169) versus Montana State’s 75.7% (#61) could be the difference in a close game.
Bash’s Best Bet
Montana State -1 (-110)
I’m laying the point with Montana State, and I’m comfortable doing it. The 5.4-point net rating gap is real, the defensive advantage is substantial, and the Bobcats have proven they can win on the road in Big Sky play. Weber State’s defensive rating of 113.0 is a glaring weakness that Montana State’s balanced scoring attack will exploit. The Bobcats are 13-9-1 ATS this season, and they’ve covered in eight of 14 road games including a push. This number should be closer to Montana State -3, and we’re getting two points of value. The model projects Montana State by 2.1, and even if Weber State gets a few extra possessions with their pace advantage, the Bobcats’ efficiency edge wins out. Take Montana State -1 and expect a 4-6 point victory that covers comfortably. This is the right side, and the market’s giving us a gift.
