Expert handicapper Bryan Bash breaks down why the Salukis +1 is his ATS pick of the night. Between Murray State’s 326th-ranked defense and Southern Illinois’ home-court advantage, Bash sees a significant edge for the Carbondale crowd.
The Setup: Murray State at Southern Illinois
Murray State rolls into Banterra Center as a 1-point favorite against Southern Illinois, and if you’re scratching your head at this line, you’re not alone. The Racers are 7-3 and scoring 88 points per game—good for 34th nationally—while Southern Illinois sits at 5-4 and averaging just 80. On the surface, this looks like Murray State should be laying more. But here’s the thing: when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread starts making a whole lot more sense. Murray State ranks 16th nationally in offensive rating at 133.5, which is impressive. But flip the script and look at their defensive rating—326th at 116.3. That’s not a typo. The Racers can fill it up, but they’re bleeding points on the other end. Southern Illinois, meanwhile, checks in at 115th defensively with a 101.7 rating. This isn’t about who scores more—it’s about who can actually get stops in a conference game that matters.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Murray State @ Southern Illinois
Date: February 6, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Banterra Center, Carbondale, IL
Bovada:
Spread: Murray State -1
Total: 158
Moneyline: Southern Illinois -105, Murray State -115
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s talk about why this line is basically a pick’em. The adjusted efficiency numbers tell you everything you need to know. Murray State’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 113.0, ranking 90th nationally. Their adjusted defensive efficiency? 105.7, good for 135th. That gives them an adjusted net rating of 7.3, ranking exactly 100th in the country. Southern Illinois checks in with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 110.0 (133rd) and adjusted defensive efficiency of 107.5 (167th), producing an adjusted net of 2.6 and a ranking of 140th. So you’ve got the 100th-best team in the country traveling to face the 140th-best team. On a neutral floor, Murray State would probably be favored by 3 or 4. But this isn’t a neutral floor—it’s Carbondale, where home court is worth something in the MVC. Factor in that Southern Illinois plays better defense and Murray State is coming off four losses in their last five games, and suddenly this 1-point spread makes perfect sense. The market isn’t confused here. It’s telling you this game could go either way.
Murray State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Racers do one thing exceptionally well: they score. That 133.5 offensive rating ranks 16th nationally, and their true shooting percentage of 60.6% sits at 47th. Javon Jackson leads the way at 16.1 points per game, and Fred King provides interior presence with 12.2 points and 8.2 boards (68th nationally in rebounding). The effective field goal percentage of 56.2% ranks 59th, which tells you Murray State is getting quality looks. But here’s the problem: they play at a pace ranked 272nd nationally at 65.8 possessions per game. They want to slow it down, control tempo, and execute in the halfcourt. That works when you can get stops. Murray State can’t get stops. They’re allowing 76.4 points per game (253rd) and opponents are shooting 44.3% against them (222nd). They’ve lost four of five, including a 103-86 beatdown at Belmont and a 101-90 loss at Drake. When you can’t defend, slowing the pace down doesn’t help—it just means every possession matters more.
Southern Illinois Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Salukis aren’t going to blow anyone away offensively—that 110.8 offensive rating ranks 187th—but they don’t need to. They shoot 49.0% from the field (54th nationally) and get to the rim, scoring 376 points in the paint compared to Murray State’s 336. The problem is their three-point shooting, which sits at 27.3% and ranks 352nd. Drew Steffe runs the show at 3.0 assists per game (391st nationally), and Quel’Ron House leads in scoring at 14.4 per game. But the real edge here is defense. That 101.7 defensive rating ranks 115th, and they’re holding opponents to 41.2% shooting (91st). They force 7.7 steals per game (136th) and block 3.9 shots (120th). Southern Illinois has won two of their last five, including a 65-50 win over Northern Iowa and a 54-50 slugfest at Illinois State. They know how to grind, and at home, they’re comfortable in low-scoring battles.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and possessions. Murray State wants to play at 65.8 possessions (272nd), while Southern Illinois operates at 69.3 (155th). That’s not a massive gap, but it matters in a game where both teams value halfcourt execution. The real battle is inside. Fred King is a legitimate post threat at 8.2 rebounds per game, but Rolyns Aligbe counters with 6.2 boards (277th nationally) and Southern Illinois holds a rebounding edge at 39.8 per game (71st) compared to Murray State’s 39.0 (95th). The Salukis also take care of the ball better, with a turnover ratio ranked 66th compared to Murray State’s 228th. In a tight game, that’s huge. Murray State’s offensive firepower is real, but their defensive issues are glaring. Southern Illinois doesn’t need to outscore them—they just need to make enough plays on defense and capitalize on Murray State’s turnovers. The home crowd matters here, and the Salukis have already shown they can win ugly. That 54-50 win at Illinois State? That’s the blueprint.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Southern Illinois +1 and feeling good about it. Look, Murray State can score—no one’s denying that. But they’ve lost four of five, they can’t defend, and they’re walking into a hostile environment against a team that thrives in grind-it-out games. The adjusted efficiency numbers tell you these teams are closer than their records suggest, and home court tips the scale. Southern Illinois ranks 115th defensively compared to Murray State’s 326th. That’s not a small gap—that’s a chasm. Give me the team that can get stops, especially at home. If you want to get cute, sprinkle something on the under 158. Both teams play slower than average, and Southern Illinois has the defensive chops to keep this in the 70s. But the main play is Southern Illinois plus the point. Cash it.
