Monday night in the Southland features a “rock fight” between two teams desperate to improve their tournament seeding, and we’ve identified a specific ATS pick based on recent form. While Incarnate Word relies on three-point variance, New Orleans’ ability to generate second-chance points makes them the more reliable point spread bet.
The Setup: New Orleans at Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word is laying 1.5 points at home against New Orleans on Monday night, and something doesn’t add up here. Look, I get the home court bump in a Southland conference slugfest, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line feels backwards. New Orleans sits at #220 in adjusted net rating at -4.3, while Incarnate Word checks in at #269 with a -8.8 mark. That’s a 4.5-point gap in net efficiency favoring the visiting Privateers. The Cardinals are getting 1.5 points at home despite being the demonstrably worse team by every meaningful metric. The market is essentially gifting us New Orleans with inflated value, and I’m here to explain why this number makes zero sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: New Orleans at Incarnate Word
Date: Monday, February 16, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: Alice P. McDermott Convocation Center, San Antonio, TX
Spread: Incarnate Word -1.5
Total: 156.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
It doesn’t. Plain and simple. The market is giving Incarnate Word 1.5 points at home when the underlying efficiency data screams New Orleans. Start with offensive rating: New Orleans posts a 109.0 adjusted offensive efficiency (#164 nationally), while Incarnate Word manages just 108.4 (#175). That’s marginal, sure. But flip to defense and the gap widens into a canyon. New Orleans allows 113.3 points per 100 possessions (#266), which isn’t good. Incarnate Word bleeds 117.2 (#326). That’s nearly four points worse defensively when you adjust for opponent quality.
The Cardinals are 2-8 in their last ten games, averaging just 69.9 points while surrendering 79.1. New Orleans is 6-4 over that stretch, scoring 77.9 and allowing 76.3. The recent form isn’t even close. And against the spread? New Orleans is 14-12 ATS overall and a ridiculous 11-6 ATS in conference play. Incarnate Word is 8-15 ATS overall and a dismal 4-13 ATS in Southland games. The Cardinals have been an ATS disaster at home, going 0-5 ATS in their last five at McDermott Center. This line is begging you to take the road team, and I’m listening.
New Orleans Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Privateers bring a balanced offensive attack led by Coleton Benson’s 15.4 points per game and Jakevion Buckley’s 5.3 assists (#61 nationally). Buckley is the engine here, a true facilitator who ranks in the top 70 nationally in dimes. New Orleans shoots 45.1% from the field and 34.2% from three, both middle-of-the-pack marks, but they compensate with elite free throw shooting at 74.2% (#108). They get to the line and convert.
Where New Orleans wins is on the glass. They pull down 37.4 rebounds per game (#83), significantly better than Incarnate Word’s 34.9 (#224). The Privateers average 11.7 offensive boards per game, giving them second-chance opportunities that extend possessions. Against a Cardinals defense ranked #326 in adjusted efficiency, those extra looks will translate to buckets. New Orleans also forces 14.7 turnovers per game, and while their own turnover rate is concerning (#348 nationally), they’ve been cleaner in conference play.
Incarnate Word Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Cardinals do have two legitimate scorers in Davion Bailey (20.4 PPG, #26 nationally) and Tahj Staveskie (18.6 PPG, #70). That’s a dangerous one-two punch, and both guys can get hot in a hurry. Incarnate Word shoots 38.0% from three (#19 nationally), which is elite and represents their best path to covering this number. If Bailey and Staveskie catch fire from deep, they can outscore their efficiency metrics for a night.
The Cardinals also crash the offensive glass hard, ranking #20 nationally with a 35.4% offensive rebounding rate. That’s their identity—they generate second chances and live at the three-point line. The problem? Everything else. They’re #326 in adjusted defensive efficiency, #330 in opponent field goal percentage (47.3%), and they’ve been absolutely torched in conference play, allowing 75.6 points per game. When Bailey and Staveskie don’t score 40+ combined, this team has no margin for error.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game will be decided in the 68-possession range, a moderate pace that favors neither team’s preference. New Orleans wants to push (69.0 pace, #97), while Incarnate Word prefers to slow it down (66.9 pace, #193). The blend should land right in the middle, which means half-court execution matters.
The key battle is New Orleans’ rebounding advantage against Incarnate Word’s three-point volume. The Cardinals will launch threes—they average 8.69 makes per game—but if New Orleans controls the glass and limits second chances, those misses turn into transition opportunities for the Privateers. New Orleans is also the better defensive team by four points of adjusted efficiency, which matters in a game projected to stay in the 140s.
The assist-to-turnover ratio tells the story of execution. New Orleans sits at 0.91 (13.4 assists, 14.7 turnovers), while Incarnate Word checks in at 1.02 (11.7 assists, 11.4 turnovers). The Cardinals take better care of the ball, but they don’t create as much for teammates. In a tight game, I trust Buckley’s playmaking over Incarnate Word’s isolation-heavy approach.
Bash’s Best Bet
New Orleans +1.5
The efficiency gap is undeniable. New Orleans is the better team by 4.5 points in adjusted net rating, they’re playing better basketball over the last ten games, and they’ve been money against the spread in conference play at 11-6. Incarnate Word is 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and 1-9 ATS in their last ten overall. The Cardinals are 1-8 ATS in their last nine Southland games at home. These trends don’t lie.
I’m also eyeing the under 156.5 as a secondary play. The model projects 147.7 total points, nearly nine points below the market number. Both teams have gone under in recent conference matchups, and the pace blend suggests a grind-it-out affair. New Orleans is 8-1 over/under at home but 9-8 on the road, while Incarnate Word is 4-8 over/under away from McDermott Center. The under has value, but the primary play is New Orleans getting points they shouldn’t need. Take the Privateers and cash the ticket.
