Monday night’s Southland clash features a fascinating contrast between Lamar’s grind-it-out defensive structure and Nicholls’ high-tempo, disruptive perimeter play. Based on current conference dynamics, the Colonels remain the authoritative ATS pick for bettors who prioritize recent ATS trends and ball pressure over historical head-to-head records.
The Setup: Nicholls at Lamar
Lamar’s laying 4 points at home against Nicholls on Monday night, and if you’re just glancing at the records—12-16 versus 11-17—you might think this is your standard Southland Conference rock fight. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line tells a much more interesting story than two struggling teams trading punches.
The Cardinals are ranked #167 in adjusted defensive efficiency, a legitimate strength that separates them from the pack in this conference. Nicholls sits at #267 defensively, and that 100-spot gap is real. Lamar’s net rating of -3.2 beats Nicholls’ -6.5 by a solid margin, but here’s the wrinkle: the Colonels have been money on the road against the spread, going 9-9 ATS away from home while Lamar is a dismal 4-9 ATS at home. That’s not noise—that’s a pattern.
This is a conference rematch, and Lamar already took care of business back in January, winning 90-80 in Thibodaux. The Cardinals have owned this series lately, going 10-0 ATS in the last ten meetings. But they’re also riding a five-game losing streak and haven’t looked sharp at home all season. The market’s asking you to lay 4 with a team that can’t cover at the Montagne Center. Let’s break down why.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 23, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Location: Neches Arena at the Montagne Center, Beaumont, TX
Matchup: Southland Conference Game
Spread: Lamar -4 (Bovada) / Lamar -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 145.5
Moneyline: Lamar -175 / Nicholls +150
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The model projects Lamar by 7.5 points, which includes a 3.5-point home court advantage and a 10% boost for conference game familiarity. That means the market is giving you 3.5 points of value on Nicholls if you trust the efficiency metrics. And I do.
Here’s why the spread feels light: Lamar’s defensive rating of 108.8 is legitimately good—#167 nationally. They hold opponents to 43.2% from the floor, ranking #117 in opponent field goal percentage. They block shots (4.4 per game, #50 nationally) and control the glass (37.6 rebounds per game, #71). That’s a real identity.
But the offensive side? Lamar’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 105.6, ranked #239. They’re shooting 43.5% from the floor and just 52.9% true shooting, ranking #315 nationally. Over their last five games, they’ve scored 71, 65, 63, 68, and 74 points—all losses. They’re not exactly lighting it up.
Nicholls counters with a faster pace (69.3 possessions, #78 versus Lamar’s 65.9, #229), and they’re elite at forcing turnovers with 9.1 steals per game, #17 nationally. The Colonels want to speed this game up, and if they can get into transition, they’ve got the weapons to hang around.
Nicholls Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Colonels are 9-9 ATS on the road this season, and that’s not random. They play faster, they pressure the ball, and they create chaos. Trae English leads the way at 13.0 points and 3.4 assists per game, while Jalik Dunkley adds 12.0 points and 6.8 rebounds. Sincere Malone chips in 11.1 points and 2.6 assists, giving them three legitimate scoring options.
Nicholls ranks #86 in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.9%, and they knock down threes at 34.8%, #135 nationally. They’re not going to blow you away with efficiency—106.8 adjusted offensive rating, #221—but they create extra possessions and they shoot it from deep. Against a Lamar team that’s #289 in opponent three-point percentage at 35.6%, that’s a matchup advantage.
The defense is the problem. Nicholls allows 48.2% shooting, #350 nationally, and their defensive rating of 113.2 ranks #267. They’ll give up points. But if they can force turnovers and push tempo, they can make this ugly enough to stay within the number.
Lamar Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Lamar’s strength is obvious: they defend. Rob Lee Jr. (13.8 points) and Andrew Holifield (13.5 points, 6.0 rebounds) provide scoring punch, while Braden East controls the paint with 11.6 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, #105 nationally. That’s a solid frontcourt, and they protect the rim.
The Cardinals rank #29 in offensive rebounding percentage at 34.9%, which is elite. They crash the glass hard, and that’s kept them in games all season. Their assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.27 beats Nicholls’ 1.16, and they take care of the ball better overall.
But here’s the rub: Lamar can’t score consistently. They’re shooting 49.4% effective field goal percentage, #297 nationally, and over their last ten games, they’re averaging just 71.6 points per game while going 2-8 straight up. They’re 3-3 ATS at home in their last ten, which is better than their season-long home ATS record, but they’re still struggling to put teams away.
Against conference opponents, Lamar is 7-12 straight up and averaging 69.5 points per game. They’re not dominating anyone, even at home.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to pace and possessions. Nicholls wants to run—69.3 pace—and Lamar wants to grind—65.9 pace. The blended pace projects to 67.6 possessions, which splits the difference. If Nicholls can force turnovers with their #17 nationally ranked steal rate, they’ll get transition opportunities. If Lamar controls the glass and limits second-chance points, they’ll slow it down and win ugly.
The rebounding battle is critical. Lamar averages 37.6 rebounds per game versus Nicholls’ 30.1, and that’s a massive gap. But Nicholls crashes the offensive glass at 32.9%, so they’ll create extra chances. The model projects a +2.0 rebounding edge for Lamar, which matters in a low-possession game.
Three-point shooting could swing this. Nicholls attempts 8.96 threes per game versus Lamar’s 7.14, and both teams shoot around 34-35% from deep. If the Colonels get hot from outside, they can cover easily. If they go cold, Lamar’s defense will suffocate them.
The projected total of 143.6 sits just below the market number of 145.5, and both teams have gone over in their recent games. Nicholls is 11-7 over/under on the road, while Lamar is 6-6 over/under at home. The over has hit in four of the last five meetings between these teams.
Bash’s Best Bet
Nicholls +4 (-110)
I’m taking the points with the Colonels. Lamar’s home ATS struggles are real—4-9 this season—and Nicholls has been solid on the road against the spread. The model sees 3.5 points of value here, and I trust the efficiency metrics over the records. Lamar’s offense is too inconsistent to blow anyone out, and Nicholls has the pace and perimeter shooting to keep this close.
The Cardinals might win this game, but laying 4 with a team that’s lost five straight and can’t cover at home? That’s not a winning proposition. Give me the dog with the pace advantage and the three-point shooting. Nicholls +4 is the play.
