North Carolina Tar Heels vs Baylor Bears Predictions

by | Last updated Mar 18, 2022 | cbb

North Carolina Tar Heels (25-9 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (27-6 SU, 17-15-1 ATS)

When: Saturday March 19 2022, 12:10 PM PM (ET)

Where: Dickies Arena

Point Spread: North Carolina +5.5/Baylor -5.5 at BetNow: Home of the 100% real cash bonus up to $1000!
Total: 149

Money Line: Tar Heels +185/Baylor -225

Key Injuries

North Carolina
Dawson Garcia: Personal (OUT)
Anthony Harris: Undisclosed (OUT)

LJ Cryer: Foot (OUT)
Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua: Knee (OUT)
Langston Love: Knee (OUT)

UNC comes into this match off an impressive 95-63 massacre of a decent Marquette team as just a -4 point spread favorite. They may however have their work cut out when they take on Baylor. The Bears crushed the outclassed Norfolk State Spartans 85-49 beating the -20.5 by 15.5 points.The linesmaker has North Carolina getting 5.5 points with the total line set at 149 points.

Recent Form

The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this matchup with an overall record of 25-9. On the season, the Tar Heels have performed well in their 12 non-conference games, posting a record of 9-3. However, they have gone just 2-4 in neutral-site contests. Over their last 5 games, they have played above .500 basketball, holding a record of 4-1.

The Baylor Bears get set to host the Tar Heels with an overall record of 27-6. On the season, the Bears have performed well in their 14 non-conference games, posting a record of 13-1. When playing on neutral courts, the team has gone 4-1. Over their last 5 games, they have played above .500 basketball, holding a record of 4-1.

For the season, the North Carolina Tar Heels are averaging 78.0 points per game, good for a rank of 19th in the NCAA. Defensively, they are the 224th rated defense, allowing 71.5 points per contest. On the other side, the Baylor Bears are the 31st ranked scoring offense, averaging 76.8 points per game while giving up an average of 63.2 (25th).

Efficiency Outlook

Baylor enters this matchup vs North Carolina, having played 21 games as the more efficient offense and defensive team. In these contests, they have posted a record of 19-2. Through 33 games, the Bears are averaging 77.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 76.0 for the Bears. In these situations, Baylor has an average scoring margin of 20.0 points. Until this point, the Tar Heels have not played a game in which they were the inferior team on both ends of the court. In terms of offensive efficiency, Baylor is averaging 77.0 points per 70.0 possessions (NCAA Average), compared to 76.0 for the Tar Heels.

In this matchup between the Tar Heels and the Bears, both teams are near the NCAA average in their percentage of points coming from made three-pointers. So far, North Carolina has been more efficient on these shots, connecting on 36.2% compared to 34.8% for Baylor.

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Tar Heels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Bears are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
  • Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.

Rich Crew’s Pick Against the Spread

Sure that 32 point win over Marquette by the Tar Heels looked good on paper but the Golden Eagles hadn’t been playing well losers of five of their last eight before the UNC game. Baylor beat lowly Norfolk State by 36 in their tournament opener, but with the current state of MARQ, I’m not even sure that they’d be able to get by them.

The Bears have played the tougher schedule with 12 game against Quadrant 1 teams going 8-4 while UNC is just 2-7 versus Q1. Baylor has also been comfortable playing on a neutral court losing only one of their five games and that was to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Tourney in a game that wasn’t all that important to win. North Caroilina on the other hand is just 2-4 SU and against the spread in the same. Another key stat is the margin victory with Baylor winning by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 wins. Lay the 5.5 points. Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our March Madness Picks!