Can Northern Colorado’s high-powered offense keep pace with a Buffaloes squad shooting 41% from deep? Bryan Bash breaks down the perimeter mismatch and provides his top ATS pick for Sunday’s in-state clash.
The Setup: Northern Colorado at Colorado
Colorado’s laying 14.5 to 15 points at home against Northern Colorado, and I can already hear the skeptics: That’s a lot of chalk for an in-state rivalry game where the underdog comes in 9-1. Look, I get it. Northern Colorado’s had a nice start to their season, and these teams played close last year with Colorado squeaking out a 90-88 win. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t the same matchup people remember from last November.
The Bears are coming off back-to-back losses where they gave up 86 to Denver and 101 at Texas Tech. Meanwhile, Colorado’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 120.5, ranking 20th nationally. That’s not just a good offense – it’s an elite unit facing a Northern Colorado defense that ranks 129th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 105.5. Let me walk you through why this double-digit spread isn’t just justified, it might actually be light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Northern Colorado (9-1) at Colorado (8-1)
Date: December 28, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: CU Events Center, Boulder, CO
Spread: Colorado -14.5 (DraftKings) / -15 (Bovada)
Total: 158.5
Moneyline: Colorado -1800 / Northern Colorado +850
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is massive, and I keep coming back to those adjusted numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Colorado’s adjusted net efficiency of 11.2 ranks 64th nationally. Northern Colorado? They’re at 4.7, ranking 122nd. That’s a 6.5-point difference in adjusted net efficiency, and we’re getting a spread right around 15. Here’s why this line makes sense.
Colorado’s offense is operating at a completely different level according to collegebasketballdata.com. The Buffaloes rank 6th nationally in three-point shooting at 41.0%, while Northern Colorado’s defense ranks 349th in opponent three-point percentage at 38.3%. Yes, you read that right – 349th out of 362 Division I teams. The Bears have done a nice job limiting opponent three-point volume (they rank 5th in opponent 3PT% at 24.6% overall), but that’s against a significantly weaker schedule. When they’ve faced quality competition, the cracks show – Texas Tech hung 101 on them just two games ago.
Do that math over 68 possessions at Colorado’s pace, and you’re looking at a situation where the Buffaloes should generate elite looks all afternoon. Colorado’s effective field goal percentage of 58.1% ranks 27th nationally, and they’re going up against a defense that allows 43.6% from the field overall. The Buffs also take care of the ball beautifully – their 0.1 turnover ratio ranks 3rd nationally, meaning they’re only turning it over on 10% of their possessions. Northern Colorado forces just 5.0 steals per game, ranking 332nd in that category.
Northern Colorado’s Situation
Credit where it’s due – the Bears can score. Their 87.4 points per game ranks 42nd nationally, and Quinn Denker is a legitimate weapon at point guard. He’s putting up 17.3 points and 6.1 assists per game, ranking 22nd nationally in assists. The Bears’ 59.4% effective field goal percentage ranks 14th in the country, and they’ve got multiple players who can shoot it.
But here’s where the problems start piling up. That 9-1 record is built on a soft schedule, and their two losses tell you everything you need to know. They lost by 7 to Denver at home and by 11 at Texas Tech. Both games exposed the same issue – when Northern Colorado faces quality offensive teams, their defense can’t get stops. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.5 ranks 129th, and their pace of 64.9 possessions per game (296th) means they prefer to slow things down and grind.
The other concern is their offensive rebounding. At 24.9%, they rank 347th nationally in offensive rebound percentage. That’s critical because when Colorado’s defense forces them into tough shots – and they will – there won’t be many second chances. Brock Wisne and Egan Shields provide some interior presence, but neither is a dominant rebounder.
Colorado’s Situation
The Buffaloes are rolling offensively, and their balance makes them incredibly difficult to defend. Five different players average between 11.3 and 15.3 points per game. Isaiah Johnson leads the way at 15.3 points per game, but it’s the supporting cast that makes this offense hum. Barrington Hargress ranks 87th nationally with 4.9 assists per game, and Bangot Dak is a monster on the glass with 7.2 rebounds per game (147th nationally).
Colorado’s 52.1% field goal percentage ranks 14th nationally, and they’re taking care of the ball at an elite level. Their 9.4 turnovers per game ranks 16th, and that 0.1 turnover ratio (3rd nationally) means they’re maximizing possessions. Against a Northern Colorado defense that doesn’t force turnovers (332nd in steals), this should be a clinic.
The one legitimate concern is Colorado’s defense, which ranks 210th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 109.3. They’ve allowed 38.3% from three (349th nationally), and they gave up 77 to Stanford and 91 at Colorado State in their last five games. But here’s the thing – Northern Colorado’s pace and style plays right into Colorado’s hands. The Bears want to slow it down, but Colorado’s offensive efficiency is so superior that even in a slower game, the Buffs should dominate possessions.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Colorado’s three-point shooting against Northern Colorado’s perimeter defense. The Buffs are launching threes at 41.0% (6th nationally), and the Bears allow 38.3% from deep (349th). That’s not a typo – that’s a bottom-15 ranking in all of college basketball. Even accounting for schedule strength, that’s a catastrophic matchup.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Colorado’s ball security versus Northern Colorado’s inability to create turnovers. The Buffs rank 3rd in turnover ratio and 16th in turnovers per game. Northern Colorado ranks 332nd in steals and doesn’t create defensive havoc. That means Colorado’s going to get clean possessions all afternoon, and with their shooting percentages, clean possessions turn into points in bunches.
The pace factor also favors Colorado. Northern Colorado wants to play at 64.9 possessions (296th), but Colorado operates at 67.9 (200th). It’s not a massive difference, but every extra possession favors the more efficient offense. Over 68 possessions, Colorado’s 124.6 offensive rating versus Northern Colorado’s 99.6 defensive rating projects to a comfortable double-digit win.
The one area Northern Colorado could exploit is Colorado’s three-point defense, which ranks 349th at 38.3%. But the Bears don’t have the offensive firepower to turn this into a shootout. They rank 62nd in offensive rating compared to Colorado’s 47th, and their adjusted offensive efficiency (129th) suggests they’ll struggle to maintain their scoring against a Big 12 opponent.
My Play
I’m backing Colorado -14.5 for 2 units. The efficiency gap is too massive, and the matchup specifics all point to a comfortable Buffaloes victory. Colorado’s elite three-point shooting against Northern Colorado’s bottom-tier perimeter defense is a 15-point swing right there. Add in Colorado’s ball security against a defense that doesn’t force turnovers, and you’ve got a recipe for the home team to control this game from the opening tip.
The main risk here is if Colorado comes out flat in a mid-major matchup and Northern Colorado gets hot from three early. Denker’s capable of taking over a game, and if the Bears can slow the pace down into the low 60s in possessions, they could keep it closer. But I’ve considered all of that, and the talent gap is still too massive to ignore. Colorado’s won the last three meetings by 11, 22, and 2 points, and that close game last year came when Colorado was a significantly worse team.
Final Score Prediction: Colorado 89, Northern Colorado 71
This one should be decided by halftime. Colorado’s shooting and efficiency will overwhelm a Northern Colorado defense that’s been exposed every time it’s faced quality competition. Lay the points with confidence.
