Don’t let the 4-6 record fool you; Bryan Bash breaks down why the Bobcats’ strength of schedule makes them a dangerous home favorite. We look at the adjusted net efficiency to find the best bet in this conference opener.
The Setup: Northern Colorado at Montana State
Montana State is laying 2.5 points at home against Northern Colorado on New Year’s Day, and honestly, this line feels like a coin flip dressed up as a home court advantage play. Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, these teams are practically mirror images. Northern Colorado comes in at 9-1 with an adjusted net efficiency of 4.7 (ranked 122nd nationally), while Montana State sits at 4-6 with a 4.0 adjusted net (128th). That’s a 0.7-point difference in efficiency between teams separated by five wins in the standings. This game lives and dies on one specific matchup advantage, and I’m going to walk you through exactly why this number is begging us to take the better team getting points in a hostile environment.
This is a Big Sky conference opener, which means both squads are resetting their season narratives. Northern Colorado’s 9-1 record looks impressive until you realize their adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 129th nationally at 110.2. Montana State? They’re 147th at 109.2. We’re talking about a one-point offensive gap between teams with vastly different records, which tells me the Bears have been feasting on a soft schedule while the Bobcats have been battle-tested.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Northern Colorado at Montana State
Date: January 1, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Worthington Arena, Bozeman, MT
Spread: Montana State -2.5
Total: 149.5
Moneyline: Montana State -148, Northern Colorado +124
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let me walk you through why this 2.5-point spread is actually disrespectful to Northern Colorado. According to collegebasketballdata.com, the Bears rank 89th in defensive efficiency at 99.6, while Montana State checks in at 128th with a 102.3 rating. That’s a nearly three-point advantage per 100 possessions for Northern Colorado on the defensive end. Both teams play at a similar crawl – UNC at 64.9 possessions per game (296th) and Montana State at 65.7 (275th) – so we’re looking at roughly 65-66 possessions in this game.
Do that math over 65 possessions, and Northern Colorado’s defensive advantage alone is worth about 1.9 points. Now factor in that their adjusted offensive efficiency is actually better (110.2 vs 109.2), and you start to wonder why we’re giving points at all. The only justification for this line is home court, and while Worthington Arena is a legitimate advantage, it’s not worth three full points against a team that’s statistically superior on both ends of the floor.
Here’s what really jumps out from the collegebasketballdata.com numbers: Northern Colorado ranks 14th nationally in effective field goal percentage at 59.4%, compared to Montana State’s 56.8% (47th). That’s not just a shooting advantage – it’s why the Bears can control tempo and still score efficiently. Their true shooting percentage of 62.9% ranks 16th in the country, meaning they’re elite at shot selection and execution.
Northern Colorado’s Situation
The Bears’ offensive profile is built around elite shooting efficiency and ball security. That 37.9% three-point shooting (34th nationally) combined with their 50.3% overall field goal percentage (32nd) creates a devastating combination in a slow-paced game. Quinn Denker runs the show at 17.3 points and 6.1 assists per game, ranking 22nd nationally in assists. That’s not just volume passing – he’s orchestrating an offense that turns the ball over just 11.9 times per game.
The concern with Northern Colorado is their rebounding, particularly on the offensive glass where they rank 347th nationally with just a 24.9% offensive rebound rate. They also don’t force turnovers, ranking 332nd in steals at just 5.0 per game. This is a team that wins by executing in the halfcourt and protecting the ball, not by creating chaos.
Recent form shows some vulnerability – they dropped games to Denver (79-86) and Texas Tech (90-101) when forced to play faster. But in their wins, including a road victory at Colorado (86-81), they’ve shown they can execute their gameplan against quality competition. Brock Wisne gives them a secondary scoring option at 14.3 points per game, and Zach Bloch adds another 13.9, creating a balanced attack that doesn’t rely solely on Denker.
Montana State’s Situation
The Bobcats’ 4-6 record is misleading when you look at their schedule strength. They’ve played a tougher slate, and their defensive metrics (105.2 adjusted defensive efficiency, 119th nationally) are nearly identical to Northern Colorado’s 105.5 (129th). Where they struggle is consistency – they’ll blow out Northwest University 93-54, then turn around and score just 57 points at Oregon State.
Montana State’s offense runs through a balanced guard attack. Davian Brown leads at 14.4 points per game, Patrick McMahon adds 14.2, and Jed Miller contributes 12.9. That’s three guards all capable of getting buckets, but their 12.0 assists per game (312th nationally) suggests this is more isolation basketball than orchestrated offense. They shoot it well enough – 36.3% from three (83rd) and 48.3% overall (66th) – but they don’t create the same quality looks Northern Colorado generates.
The Bobcats’ advantage is on the offensive glass, where they rank 264th at 29.0% compared to Northern Colorado’s 347th ranking. They also force more turnovers with 7.5 steals per game (158th). In a low-possession game, those extra opportunities could matter. Their recent wins over Cal Poly (83-80) and St. Thomas-Minnesota (82-74) show they can score at home, but both games were closer than the talent gap suggested.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
I keep coming back to those perimeter defense numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Northern Colorado ranks 5th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at just 24.6%, while Montana State ranks 54th at 29.3%. In a game between two three-point shooting teams, that’s massive. Montana State takes 36.3% of their shots from deep and makes them at a solid clip, but they’re running into a defense that simply doesn’t allow threes to fall.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Quinn Denker versus Montana State’s guard defense. Denker ranks 22nd nationally in assists and is the engine of an offense that ranks 19th in assists per game at 19.0. Montana State’s 12.0 assists per game (312th) tells me they don’t move the ball with the same precision. In a slow-paced game where every possession matters, the team with better ball movement and offensive execution has a significant edge.
The pace matchup favors Northern Colorado’s style. Both teams want to play slow, but the Bears are better equipped to win in the mud. Their turnover ratio of 0.2 (124th) is solid, and they protect the ball better than Montana State despite similar raw turnover numbers. Montana State’s 29.0% offensive rebounding rate could generate second chances, but Northern Colorado’s defensive efficiency suggests they limit damage even when opponents get extra looks.
Looking at the head-to-head history, Northern Colorado won three straight against Montana State last season, including an 83-82 thriller in Bozeman and a 72-45 blowout in the conference tournament. These teams know each other, and the Bears have owned this matchup recently.
My Play
I’m backing Northern Colorado +2.5 for 2 units. The main risk here is if Montana State’s home crowd and offensive rebounding create enough extra possessions to overcome their efficiency disadvantage. I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive gap is still too massive to ignore. Northern Colorado ranks 89th in defensive efficiency compared to Montana State’s 128th, and in a game with roughly 65 possessions, that’s worth nearly two points by itself.
Add in Northern Colorado’s superior offensive efficiency, elite three-point defense, and recent dominance in this matchup, and I’m comfortable taking the better team getting points on the road. This line exists purely because of home court advantage, but Worthington Arena isn’t worth three points against a team that’s statistically superior across the board.
I’m projecting Northern Colorado 73, Montana State 71. Give me the Bears plus the points in what should be a tight, possession-by-possession battle. When the efficiency numbers are this clear and you’re getting points with the better team, you take it and don’t overthink it.
