Laying 24.5 points is a lot, but the Red Raiders are poised to turn this into a layup line. Northern Colorado ranks near the bottom of the country in creating second chances (#347 offensive rebounding), while Texas Tech feasts on the offensive glass. Bash explains why the “chasm” in talent and physicality makes the favorite the sharp play, predicting a 25-30 point margin.
The Setup: Northern Colorado at Texas Tech
Texas Tech’s laying 24.5 points at home against Northern Colorado, and look, I get it – that’s a massive number for a mid-December game. But here’s the thing: this isn’t some trap game against a quality mid-major. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, the gap between these programs is absolutely massive, and that spread starts making a whole lot more sense.
Northern Colorado comes in at 9-1, which looks impressive on paper. But their adjusted efficiency numbers tell a completely different story – they rank 122nd nationally with a net rating of just 4.7. Meanwhile, Texas Tech sits at 26th in the country with an adjusted net of 18.4. That’s not a small gap – that’s a chasm. And when you’re playing in Lubbock at United Supermarkets Arena against a Big 12 squad that’s built to punish weaker competition, 24.5 points might actually be light.
Let me walk you through why this number makes perfect sense and why the Red Raiders should absolutely demolish the Bears on Monday night.
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here is the entire story. Texas Tech ranks 57th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 115.8, while Northern Colorado checks in at 129th with a 110.2 mark. But defense is where this gets really ugly for the Bears – Tech ranks 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 97.4, while UNC sits at 129th with a 105.5 rating.
Here’s what that means in real terms: Texas Tech is significantly better at scoring against quality competition AND significantly better at preventing quality opponents from scoring. Northern Colorado’s 9-1 record? It’s built on a cupcake schedule. Their adjusted defensive rating of 105.5 means they’re allowing over a point per possession when you account for opponent quality. Against a Texas Tech offense that features JT Toppin averaging 20.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game (5th nationally in rebounding), that’s a recipe for disaster.
The pace factor also favors Texas Tech. The Red Raiders play at 70.3 possessions per game (125th nationally), while Northern Colorado crawls at 64.9 possessions (296th). Tech controls tempo at home, and they’ll push this game to about 68-70 possessions. Do that math over 70 possessions with an efficiency gap this wide, and you’re looking at a 25-30 point margin.
Northern Colorado’s Situation
Credit where it’s due – the Bears can score. They’re putting up 87.4 points per game (42nd nationally) and shooting an impressive 59.4% effective field goal percentage (14th in the country). Quinn Denker is a legitimate playmaker at 17.3 points and 6.1 assists per game (22nd nationally in assists), and they’ve got balanced scoring with four guys in double figures.
But here’s the massive problem: Northern Colorado ranks 347th in offensive rebounding percentage at just 24.9%. That’s not just bad – it’s catastrophic against a Texas Tech team that ranks 23rd nationally in offensive rebounding at 36.4%. When the Bears miss shots, they’re not getting second chances. When Tech misses, they’re crashing the glass and getting extra possessions.
The other glaring weakness is their defensive pressure. UNC ranks 332nd in steals per game at just 5.0 and 314th in blocks at 2.4. They don’t create havoc, they don’t force turnovers, and they’re going to let Christian Anderson (7.0 assists per game, 5th nationally) operate in complete comfort running the Tech offense.
Texas Tech’s Situation
The Red Raiders have two losses this season – by 7 at Arkansas and by 30 at Purdue. Those are quality opponents on the road. When they’re at home against inferior competition, they’ve been absolutely ruthless. They beat New Orleans by 32 and LSU by 24 in their last two home games.
The Toppin-Anderson duo is elite. Toppin ranks 21st nationally in scoring at 20.8 points per game and is a monster on the glass. Anderson ranks 5th in the country in assists at 7.0 per game and is scoring 19.1 points himself (54th nationally). That’s two guys who can exploit every weakness Northern Colorado has.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Texas Tech’s offensive rebounding (36.4%, 23rd nationally) against Northern Colorado’s inability to secure defensive boards. The Red Raiders are going to get 12-15 offensive rebounds in this game, and each one is essentially a turnover for UNC. That’s an extra 15-20 possessions over the course of the game, and against a defense ranked 129th in adjusted efficiency, those possessions turn into easy points.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and defensive intensity. Northern Colorado’s 24.9% offensive rebounding rate (347th) meeting Texas Tech’s 36.4% rate (23rd) is a 11.5 percentage point gap. Over 70 possessions with roughly 50 missed shots, that’s 5-6 extra possessions for Tech. At their offensive efficiency, that’s 6-7 additional points just from offensive rebounding dominance.
The three-point defense matchup also heavily favors Texas Tech. Northern Colorado ranks 5th nationally in opponent three-point percentage at 24.6%, which sounds great until you realize Texas Tech doesn’t rely on the three-ball – they rank 149th in effective field goal percentage because they pound the paint and crash the offensive glass. The Bears’ perimeter defense strength is completely neutralized by Tech’s style.
Meanwhile, Northern Colorado shoots 37.9% from three (34th nationally), but Texas Tech ranks 59th in opponent three-point percentage at 29.4%. The Bears’ offensive strength runs directly into a competent defense, while Tech’s offensive approach exploits UNC’s biggest weakness.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. An 18.4 adjusted net rating versus a 4.7 rating is the difference between a top-30 program and a mid-major that’s beaten nobody of consequence. When you add home court advantage in Lubbock – worth 3-4 points minimum – you’re looking at a true talent gap of 17-18 points before we even tip off.
My Play
Texas Tech -24.5 for 2 units
I’m laying the points with confidence here. The efficiency gap is massive, the style matchup heavily favors the Red Raiders, and Northern Colorado has zero answer for Texas Tech’s rebounding dominance. I’m projecting this game at Texas Tech 87, Northern Colorado 60, which covers the spread by two points.
The main risk here is if Northern Colorado gets unconscious from three-point range and hits 12-13 threes while Tech goes cold. The Bears have the shooting ability to keep it closer than it should be for stretches. But I’ve considered all of that, and the rebounding gap is still too massive to ignore. Even if UNC shoots well, Tech’s going to get 10-12 more shot attempts from offensive rebounds alone.
This is a classic case of a mid-major with an inflated record running into a power conference team that’s built to exploit their weaknesses. Take the Red Raiders and don’t sweat the number.
