Northwestern at Ohio State Betting Analysis & Free Pick
Northwestern (16-7 SU 13-10 ATS) vs. Ohio State (11-12 SU 8-15 ATS)
When: Thursday, February 9th: 8:00 ET
Where: Value City Arena Columbus, OH
Point Spread: NW +5.5/OSU -5.5
Money Line: Northwestern Wildcats +189/Ohio State Buckeyes -240
The Northwestern Wildcats travel to Columbus to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in Thursday night Big 10 action. The college betting board lists the host Buckeyes as a -5.5 favorite with a total line of 137.5.
There’s been a lot of movement on this game with it hoping around at many sportsbooks from -5.5 to -5, so line shopping is key for this game. The total is much of the same thing. Not a lot of movement, but a lot of variance in the opening number, with shops hanging a 137 while others were putting up a 137.5 point line.
Last Game Info
Northwestern will be looking for another win, as they most recently defeated Wisconsin by a score of 54-52. The Wildcats also picked up an ATS victory as they were +3.5 point underdogs. The combined 106 points did not surpass the 125 total line.
Ohio State most recently fell to Michigan (77-69). Not only did the Buckeyes lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +2.5 point underdogs. The combined 146 points finished above the 145.5 total line.
Over their last five games, Northwestern has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wildcats’ offense averages 66.8 points per game while hitting 46.9% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 45.6% from the field while allowing 66.0 points per contest.
In their previous five contests, Ohio State is 1-4 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 70.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.1%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 45.3% of their shots while giving up 74.8 points per game.
Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played
This season, the combined power rating of Northwestern’s opponents comes in at 81.8. On the other side, Ohio State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 82.9.
How Does Northwestern Fare On The Road?
For the season, the Wildcats have played seven road games and have a record of 5-2. In these contests, Northwestern is 5-2 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 72.7 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.2%. On defense, the Wildcats allow 70.7 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 46.9% in these games.
How Does Ohio State Fare At Home?
In their 13 games at home, Ohio State has a 6-7 record vs. the spread while going 9-4 straight-up. On offense, the Buckeyes are shooting 49.5% on their home floor, leading to 79.9 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 41.0% in these contests. The Ohio State defense is allowing 64.8 points per game at home.
Offense vs. Defense
For the season, Northwestern is averaging 73.0 points per game (148th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 42.7%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against an Ohio State defense that has allowed an average of 68.0 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.6% of their shots vs. Ohio State. On the other side, the Ohio State Buckeyes are coming into the game averaging 73.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 47.4%. The Buckeyes will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 62.0 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 40.1% of their shots vs. the Wildcats.
From beyond the arc, Northwestern has a shooting percentage of 34.7% while ranking 245th in attempts per game. The Wildcats will be facing an Ohio State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 30.7%. Ohio State enters the game having hit 37.3% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.1 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Northwestern has allowed opponents to hit 36.1% of their shots from beyond the arc.
Injuries Of Note
- Julian Roper II (Questionable) Ankle
- Luke Hunger (Out) Foot
- No Reported Injuries
More Picks: Get Rich Crew’s Iowa at Purdue recommended bet 2/9/23
Pick Against The Line
Ohio St. put up 73 in the earlier meeting on the road at the Welsh-Ryan Arena, but I put less weight into in games that happen on holidays. The prior meeting was on January 1st, and in my opinion, the road team is more likely to be focused (road team 11-8 SU and 10-9 ATS TY). So, I’m tossing this game out of my handicapping process. So here we go. The Buckeyes have a significant advantage with three-point shooting and could exploit the Wildcats there, but I’m betting against that happening tonight. Even if they do have some success, I think this ends up like the Rutgers games for both teams. Ohio State had a 2-point shooting percentage of 32.6 and hit 38.1 on threes (8 of 21) in a 68-64 loss to the Scarlet Knights. Northwestern held Rutgers to 33.3 % in the paint and 61.1 from three-point land (11 of 18) in a 65-62 loss. Take the Under 137.5
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