No. 38 Ohio State heads to College Park as a 7.5-point favorite, backed by a true shooting percentage that ranks 5th in the nation. Handicapper Bash breaks down why the Buckeyes’ elite perimeter defense is the primary prediction for this Big Ten battle at the XFINITY Center.
The Setup: Ohio State at Maryland
Ohio State’s laying 7.5 at Maryland on Thursday night, and honestly? This number feels light. The Buckeyes are rolling into College Park with a 7-1 record and efficiency metrics that scream Big Ten contender, while Maryland’s sitting at 6-4 looking like a team that’s been figured out. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, this isn’t a coin flip—it’s a talent and execution gap that the market might be undervaluing by a couple possessions. Ohio State ranks 38th nationally in adjusted net efficiency at plus-15.6, while Maryland checks in at 198th with a negative-2.5. That’s not a small gap, folks. That’s the difference between a team that wins by controlling both ends and a team that’s barely treading water in conference play.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Ohio State at Maryland
Date: February 5, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
Spread: Ohio State -7.5
Total: 151.5
Moneyline: Ohio State -340, Maryland +270
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s break down why this spread exists and whether it’s telling the whole story. Ohio State’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 116.9, ranking 44th nationally, while their adjusted defensive efficiency of 101.3 ranks 52nd. Maryland? They’re at 104.9 on offense (232nd) and 107.3 on defense (159th). That’s a 12-point gap in offensive efficiency and nearly a 6-point advantage defensively for the Buckeyes. In a game projected to run around 70 possessions based on both teams’ pace metrics—Ohio State at 70.5 (119th) and Maryland at 70.1 (132nd)—those efficiency gaps should theoretically produce a double-digit margin.
So why is the market only giving us 7.5? Two factors: home court and recent results. Maryland’s at home where they traditionally play better, and Ohio State’s coming off back-to-back losses to Wisconsin and Michigan. But here’s what the market might be missing—those losses came against top-tier Big Ten competition, and in both games, Ohio State’s underlying metrics remained strong. The Buckeyes shot 53.0% from the field (3rd nationally) and maintain a true shooting percentage of 65.4% (5th). When your offensive foundation is that efficient, bad shooting nights are variance, not trend. Maryland’s 40.6% field goal percentage (337th) and 47.2% effective field goal percentage (328th) suggest they’re the ones with structural offensive problems.
Ohio State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Buckeyes are built on offensive efficiency and perimeter defense. That 61.0% effective field goal percentage ranks 7th nationally, driven by elite shot selection and finishing ability. Bruce Thornton’s leading the charge at 20.1 points per game, ranking 32nd nationally in scoring, while Christoph Tilly (14.1 PPG) and John Mobley Jr. (14.0 PPG) provide secondary scoring punch. The offensive rating of 125.4 (39th) tells you this isn’t just volume—it’s quality possessions.
Where Ohio State really separates itself is defending the three-point line. They’re holding opponents to just 26.7% from deep, ranking 15th nationally in that metric. Against a Maryland team that shoots 30.9% from three (287th) and struggles to create quality looks, that defensive strength becomes a matchup hammer. The Buckeyes also force opponents into a 41.8% field goal percentage overall (115th), and their defensive rating of 98.0 (59th) shows they’re not giving up easy baskets. The only concerning number? That 24.5% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 349th nationally, meaning second-chance points won’t be part of the equation.
Maryland Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Maryland’s season has been a tale of inconsistency, and the recent stretch has been brutal—losses to Purdue (63-93), Michigan State (48-91), and Illinois (70-89) show a team getting exposed by quality competition. Pharrel Payne’s been their bright spot at 18.7 points per game (68th nationally) and 7.6 rebounds (124th), but the supporting cast hasn’t provided enough complementary scoring. David Coit and Darius Adams both average 13.2 PPG, but neither has the efficiency metrics to suggest they can carry the offensive load when Payne gets attention.
The Terrapins do have one legitimate advantage: offensive rebounding. Their 34.9% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 59th nationally, which could create extra possessions against Ohio State’s weak defensive glass. They’re also generating 166 points off turnovers compared to Ohio State’s 144, suggesting they can capitalize when they force mistakes. But here’s the problem—their 106.1 offensive rating (273rd) and 108.0 defensive rating (218th) mean they’re below average on both ends. You can’t consistently beat top-40 teams when you’re middle-of-the-pack or worse in efficiency metrics.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Maryland can generate enough offensive rebounds and transition opportunities to overcome their halfcourt execution problems. Ohio State’s going to control the tempo at around 70 possessions and force Maryland into contested halfcourt sets. When the Terrapins are shooting 40.6% from the field in structured offense, they need chaos—turnovers, offensive rebounds, fast breaks—to reach their scoring ceiling.
The problem? Ohio State doesn’t give up much chaos. They turn it over just 11.8 times per game (142nd) and allow only 69.1 points per game (94th). Maryland’s 13.9 turnovers per game (299th) suggests they’re more likely to be the team making mistakes. The three-point shooting matchup heavily favors Ohio State—they shoot 36.9% (65th) while defending it at 26.7% (15th), and Maryland shoots 30.9% (287th) while allowing 36.5% (318th). That’s a massive edge in the most important shot in basketball.
Bruce Thornton’s matchup against Maryland’s backcourt should tilt toward the Buckeyes. He’s averaging 4.0 assists per game (163rd) and controlling pace effectively, while Maryland’s guards are turnover-prone and inefficient. If Ohio State can establish Thornton early and get Tilly involved in the paint—where the Buckeyes have scored 310 points compared to Maryland’s 274—this game could get away from the Terrapins in the second half.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 7.5 points with Ohio State. The efficiency gap is too significant, and Maryland’s recent results against quality competition show they’re not ready to hang with top-40 teams. Ohio State’s 15.6 adjusted net efficiency advantage should produce a double-digit win in a neutral environment, and while home court matters, it’s not worth 5-6 points when the home team is this flawed offensively. The Buckeyes’ perimeter defense against Maryland’s poor three-point shooting creates a mismatch that compounds every possession. Give me the better team with the better metrics getting less than two possessions. Ohio State wins this by 10-12, and we cash comfortably. Ohio State -7.5 is the play.
