North Carolina opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but the line has moved toward the Tar Heels as the public recognizes their defensive identity. Bryan Bash explores the market psychology and why professional money is eyeing the under in a game featuring a matchup of top-40 efficiency teams.
The Setup: Ohio State at North Carolina
North Carolina’s laying 4.5 points against Ohio State on a neutral court in Atlanta, and here’s the thing – this line feels almost disrespectfully tight when you start digging into what these teams actually do on the floor. The Tar Heels are 8-1 with an adjusted net efficiency ranking of #28 nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Ohio State checks in at #38. But that three-spot spread doesn’t tell the real story here, and I can already hear the pushback: Ohio State’s 7-1, they’re scoring 88.4 points per game, they just hung 113 on someone. Look, I get it. The Buckeyes can light it up. But when you peel back the layers on these efficiency numbers and look at what happens when elite offense meets elite defense, this matchup has a clear lean. Let me walk you through why North Carolina’s defensive identity is going to dictate this game, and why 4.5 points might actually be generous to the Buckeyes.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Ohio State @ North Carolina
Date: December 20, 2025
Time: 3:00 PM ET
Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA (Neutral Site)
Spread: North Carolina -4.5
Total: 154.5
Moneyline: UNC -166, OSU +140
Why This Number Makes Sense
Here’s why this line makes sense when you actually understand what you’re looking at. North Carolina’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #26 in the country at 97.5, while Ohio State sits at #52 with a 101.3 mark. That’s not just a five-point gap on paper – it’s the difference between a team that’s built its entire identity on suffocating defense versus a team that’s been good enough defensively but relies heavily on outscoring opponents.
The Buckeyes are averaging 88.4 points per game, which ranks #32 nationally, but their offensive rating of 125.4 has been inflated by playing at a decent tempo and absolutely demolishing inferior competition. When they’ve faced real resistance – like that 67-66 loss at Pittsburgh or the 88-80 loss to Illinois – the shooting percentages come back to earth. North Carolina, meanwhile, holds opponents to just 65.0 points per game (#23 in the nation) and limits teams to 36.8% from the field, which ranks #8 nationally according to CBD.
Both teams play at nearly identical pace – Ohio State at 70.5 possessions per game (#119) and North Carolina at 70.2 (#128) – so this isn’t a tempo mismatch. It’s a style clash where Carolina’s defensive pressure meets Ohio State’s shooting-dependent offense. Do that math over 70 possessions with Carolina’s defensive efficiency advantage, and you’re looking at a 6-8 point swing just from that factor alone.
Ohio State’s Situation
The Buckeyes come in with impressive offensive credentials. That 53.0% field goal percentage ranks #3 nationally, and their 61.0% effective field goal percentage (#7) shows they’re getting quality looks. Bruce Thornton is a legitimate star, averaging 20.1 points per game (#32 nationally), and the supporting cast with Christoph Tilly (14.1 PPG) and John Mobley Jr. (14.0 PPG) provides multiple scoring options.
But here’s what concerns me: Ohio State ranks #349 in offensive rebounding percentage at just 24.5%. That’s catastrophic. When your shots aren’t falling – and they won’t all fall against Carolina’s #8-ranked field goal defense – you need second chances. The Buckeyes don’t get them. They’re also averaging just 1.5 blocks per game (#358), which tells me their interior defense is vulnerable.
Their recent form shows the volatility: they needed overtime to beat West Virginia 89-88, lost by eight to Illinois, and that Pittsburgh loss was a 67-66 rock fight where the shooting dried up completely. When Ohio State can’t shoot over 50% from the field, they don’t have a Plan B.
North Carolina’s Situation
The Tar Heels are built differently. Caleb Wilson is averaging 19.6 points and 10.6 rebounds per game – that’s #44 in scoring and #14 in rebounding nationally. Henri Veesaar adds another 16.2 points and 9.2 boards (#34 in rebounding). That frontcourt combination is exactly what you need against a team that can’t rebound or protect the rim.
Carolina’s 43.4 rebounds per game rank #11 in the country, and while their offensive efficiency isn’t elite – 115.6 adjusted offensive rating (#58) – they don’t need to be explosive when they’re holding teams to 92.3 points per 100 possessions (#22 defensive rating). That 4.3 blocks per game (#75) gives them legitimate rim protection that Ohio State simply doesn’t have.
The Michigan State loss (74-58) is actually instructive here – Carolina struggled offensively but still held a good team under 75 points. Their wins over Kentucky (67-64) and Georgetown (81-61) show they can grind or run depending on the opponent. Against Ohio State’s perimeter-oriented attack, they’ll make the Buckeyes work for everything inside the arc.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. North Carolina ranks #11 in rebounding at 43.4 per game. Ohio State sits at #168 with just 37.2 boards per game. That’s a six-rebound advantage, and when you factor in Ohio State’s #349 ranking in offensive rebounding percentage, Carolina’s going to end possessions.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Ohio State’s three-point shooting versus Carolina’s perimeter defense. The Buckeyes shoot 36.9% from deep (#65), which is solid but not elite. North Carolina holds opponents to 29.4% from three (#59 in opponent three-point defense). When Ohio State’s twos aren’t falling because of Carolina’s rim protection, and the threes are contested by long, athletic defenders, where do the points come from?
The Buckeyes average 310 points in the paint through eight games. North Carolina has allowed just 318 through nine games while playing tougher competition. Ohio State’s 144 points off turnovers won’t materialize against a Carolina team that only turns it over 11.0 times per game (#86 in turnover rate).
This game lives and dies on whether Ohio State can maintain that elite shooting percentage against the best defense they’ve faced all season. Carolina’s #8 ranking in opponent field goal percentage tells me the answer is no.
My Play
I’m backing North Carolina -4.5 for 2 units with confidence. The main risk here is if Ohio State gets nuclear from three and shoots 45% from deep, but I’ve considered all of that, and Carolina’s defensive identity is still too massive to ignore. The Tar Heels have the size advantage, the rebounding advantage, the defensive efficiency advantage, and the home crowd advantage even on a neutral court in ACC territory.
Ohio State’s going to score in the mid-70s here, which is 10-12 points below their season average, because that’s what elite defenses do to shooting-dependent teams. I’m projecting North Carolina 79, Ohio State 72, which covers the 4.5 comfortably. The Buckeyes will hang around through sheer shooting talent, but when Carolina controls the glass and forces Ohio State into one-and-done possessions in crunch time, that’s where the separation happens. Lay the points with the better team.
