The “Battle of the Bricks” rivalry takes center stage this Friday as the #23 ranked Miami RedHawks look to defend their flawless 24−0 record. For those seeking an ATS pick, the mismatch between Miami’s nation-leading offensive efficiency and Ohio’s struggling perimeter defense—which allows opponents to shoot nearly 36% from deep—has become the focal point for MAC bettors.
The Setup: Ohio at Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is laying 10.5 at Millett Hall on Friday night, and if you’re thinking this looks like a classic MAC trap game with an undefeated home team getting too much respect, pump the brakes. The RedHawks are 8-0 and rolling with the nation’s top offensive rating at 173.8, while Ohio limps in at 3-6 with a defensive rating that ranks 319th nationally. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread isn’t inflated—it’s telling you exactly what should happen when elite offense meets porous defense in a conference matchup.
Miami’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 115.3, ranking 61st nationally, while their adjusted defensive number of 107.6 checks in at 168th. Ohio? They’re 166th in adjusted offense and 301st in adjusted defense, creating a net efficiency gap that screams double-digit home victory. The market landed on 10.5 for a reason, and it’s not because Vegas is being generous to the Bobcats.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Ohio (3-6) @ Miami (OH) (8-0)
Date: February 13, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Millett Hall, Oxford, OH
Conference: MAC
Bovada Odds:
Spread: Miami (OH) -10.5
Total: 163.5
Moneyline: Miami (OH) -650, Ohio +450
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let’s talk about why this spread landed at 10.5 and not somewhere softer. Miami is scoring 95.4 points per game, ranking 6th nationally, while shooting 52.8% from the field (5th) and 39.7% from three (18th). Their effective field goal percentage of 61.9% ranks 4th in the country. This isn’t just good offense—this is elite efficiency at every level.
Now flip to Ohio’s defensive profile, and you’ll see why the market isn’t buying a competitive game. The Bobcats allow 81.0 points per game (325th nationally), opponents shoot 46.8% against them (320th), and they’re giving up 37.4% from three-point range (335th). When you marry Miami’s offensive prowess with Ohio’s defensive incompetence, double digits isn’t generous—it’s probably conservative.
The tempo factor matters here too. Miami plays at a glacial 54.8 pace (364th nationally), while Ohio runs at 70.0 (134th). The RedHawks will dictate tempo at home, which means fewer possessions and more half-court execution. That plays directly into Miami’s hands—they’re not trying to run with you, they’re trying to carve you up in the halfcourt with precision shooting. Ohio’s defensive rating of 115.7 (319th) suggests they’ll get carved plenty.
Ohio Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let me be clear—there isn’t much analytical edge here for the Bobcats. Jackson Paveletzke leads the way at 17.2 points per game, ranking 122nd nationally, and Aidan Hadaway provides a double-double threat at 14.1 points and 7.6 boards. But when your team shoots 28.8% from three (339th nationally) and posts a true shooting percentage of just 52.8% (302nd), you’re not built to hang with elite offensive teams.
The one semi-bright spot? Ohio ranks 120th in offensive rebounding percentage at 32.9%, and they’re 135th in turnovers per game at 11.7. They take care of the ball reasonably well and crash the offensive glass with some success. Against Miami’s 320th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage (27.0%), there might be second-chance opportunities.
But here’s the problem: Ohio’s offensive rating of 105.6 (280th) tells you they’re not efficient enough to capitalize consistently, even when they do create extra possessions. They’ve lost to Akron by 21, Kent State by 15, and Old Dominion by 6 in their last five. The wins came against Western Michigan and Buffalo—not exactly MAC powerhouses this season.
Miami (OH) Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The RedHawks are balanced, efficient, and playing with supreme confidence at 8-0. Evan Ipsaro leads at 14.8 points per game, but they’ve got five guys averaging double figures, including Brant Byers (12.6), Peter Suder (12.4), and Almar Atlason (11.8). That depth and balance make them incredibly difficult to defend, especially when they’re shooting 52.8% as a team.
Miami’s 17.4 assists per game (44th nationally) show you this is a connected offensive unit that shares the ball. Their 79.1% free throw shooting (9th) means they’ll punish you at the line late in games. And their true shooting percentage of 65.8% ranks 4th in the entire country—that’s not a typo, that’s dominance.
Defensively, they’re holding opponents to 39.5% shooting (46th) and 30.9% from three (103rd). The 8.9 steals per game (57th) create transition opportunities, evidenced by 108 fast break points through eight games. Yes, their defensive rating of 121.9 ranks 350th, but that’s a pace-adjusted metric that doesn’t fully capture their effectiveness in a slow-tempo environment they control.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to Miami’s elite shooting against Ohio’s atrocious perimeter defense. When you’re giving up 37.4% from three and facing a team that shoots 39.7% from deep, the math isn’t complicated. Miami will get clean looks in the halfcourt, and they’ll knock them down at a rate Ohio simply can’t overcome.
The pace element is critical. Miami’s 54.8 tempo means we’re looking at roughly 65-67 possessions in this game, not 75. That compressed possession count favors the more efficient team, which is Miami by a country mile. Ohio’s offensive rating of 105.6 versus Miami’s defensive rating of 121.9 suggests the Bobcats will struggle to reach 70 points in this environment.
On the flip side, Miami’s offensive rating of 173.8—yes, first in the nation—against Ohio’s defensive rating of 115.7 suggests the RedHawks could flirt with 85-90 points even in a slow-paced game. The efficiency gap is just too wide. Ohio’s 32.9% offensive rebounding rate might create a few extra possessions, but when you’re shooting 43.8% from the field and 28.8% from three, those extra chances don’t move the needle enough.
Look at Miami’s recent results: they just beat Marshall by 16, survived Buffalo by 2, crushed Northern Illinois by 24, and won a shootout at Kent State 107-101. They know how to win close games and they know how to blow teams out. Ohio’s getting neither the efficiency nor the defensive competence needed to keep this within single digits.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 10.5 with Miami (OH) without hesitation. This number should probably be 12 or 13 based on the efficiency gap, and I’m not overthinking it. When the nation’s top offensive rating meets the 319th-ranked defense in a controlled-tempo home environment, the math does the work for you.
Miami shoots too well, defends too effectively, and controls pace too completely for Ohio to hang around. The Bobcats might keep it respectable for a half, but this game gets decided in the final 12 minutes when Miami’s depth and efficiency take over. I’d play this to -11.5 if you can find it. The RedHawks are rolling, and this spread is a gift.
The Pick: Miami (OH) -10.5
