Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines Pick 12/14/19
Oregon Ducks (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) vs. Michigan Wolverines (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS)
When: Saturday, December 14, Noon
Where: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Mich.
Point Spread: ORE +3 / MICH -3 (Best Basketball Lines)
Total: O/U 139
Last Time Out:
Michigan lost 71-62 to Illinois; Oregon pounded Hawai’i 89-64.
Scouting the Ducks:
What happened against Hawai’i isn’t likely to repeat itself here, as there’s little chance that Michigan is going to allow the Ducks to shoot 63 percent from the floor in this contest. What Oregon needs to be more concerned about is whether the Wolverines send their shooting percentages tumbling in the complete opposite direction, as Michigan managed to hold Illinois under 10 percent from behind the arc in the Wolverines’ loss to the Illini. The Ducks shoot the deep ball much better than the Illini do, but that doesn’t change the fact that the Michigan defense is easily the toughest test that Payton Pritchard and friends have seen all season.
Oregon will come in a very rested team after playing just that one game with Hawai’i since the Battle 4 Atlantis, and the Ducks are going to have to put that rest to good use in order to get the kinds of shots that they’ve been used to seeing through the first nine games.
Scouting the Wolverines
When Michigan shoots the 3-pointer well, good things happen. When Michigan shoots 16.7 percent from behind the arc, losses to Illinois occur. The Wolverines’ defense was on point against the Illini, but it didn’t matter because Michigan could not hit a thing from deep in Champaign, and the Wolverines were going up against what has been the best rebounding team in the nation so far. Oregon does not rebound the basketball nearly as well as Illinois does, but the Ducks present a different challenge: they play pretty solid defense on the perimeter.
That’s sure to give Michigan coach Juwan Howard reason for concern after he watched his team shoot a combined 3-for-18 from deep, mainly because they didn’t really look for great shots against the Illini and seem content to fire before they had a really good look at the basket. Only Isaiah Livers did anything of note against the Illini, and that isn’t going to work if Michigan is going to bounce back against a quality opponent.
Time zones. This is an early game, and Oregon has had to come across three time zones to play it. The Ducks’ body clocks will be at 9 a.m. their own time when this gets going, which can really mess with a team, especially when facing an opponent that is as capable as Michigan. Oregon can’t afford to take too long to wake up in this game because Michigan plays defense too well to allow such a situation. If the Ducks get behind early, they’ll likely be behind for good.
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Oregon will Cover if:
The Ducks can outscore Michigan on the arc. Oregon can win this battle in one of two ways: beat the Michigan defense by finding good shots from the arc, or they can frustrate the Michigan offense by denying them good shots from the arc. Given that Louisville and Illinois both used the latter strategy and the Ducks play good defense, count on them employing it as well. However, Oregon has to then make sure it can battle back on the glass. If the Ducks can’t end possessions after a single shot, they’re in trouble.
Michigan will Cover if:
The Wolverines rediscover their 3-point shot. I was wrong about Illinois beating Michigan by 20 if the Wolverines shot 16 percent from the 3-point arc, but the Illini did win by nine despite shooting nine percent from behind the arc because Michigan is so dependent on the combination of defense and the deep shot. Michigan is almost always going to be able to count on tough defense, but when the shooting goes, the Wolverines do not have the ability to clean up their misses and stay in the game. Given that Oregon plays the arc pretty tough, there’s much to be nervous about.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread:
Michigan’s shooting is off, and I can’t say I think that Oregon is the team that the Wolverines rediscover it against. Illinois was the team that Michigan’s shooting was supposed to bounce back against, and that didn’t happen. Oregon’s defense is right around the same level of efficiency as Illinois, but the Ducks are built to stop the 3-pointer. I’m a little nervous about Oregon flying east and crossing three time zones, but the way Michigan’s shooting, I cannot trust the Wolverines right now. Give me the Ducks.Bet the Ducks/Wolverines game for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus! This means if you deposit $100, the sportsbook will add $100 CASH to your account! Max bonus is $300! Find this special offer at MyBookie!