The Indiana Hoosiers look to build on a thrilling overtime victory as they host a reeling Oregon team at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Before you lock in your wagers, check out who Bash thinks is the sharpest ATS pick for this Big Ten clash.
The Setup: Oregon at Indiana
Indiana’s laying 11.5 at Assembly Hall against Oregon, and if you’re looking at the records and thinking this feels light, you’re not alone. The Hoosiers are 7-2 and riding high, while the Ducks have dropped five straight and sit at 4-5. But here’s the thing—when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line starts to make a whole lot more sense than the surface suggests. Indiana’s adjusted net efficiency sits at +19.7, ranking 20th nationally, while Oregon checks in at -2.4 at 194th. That’s a 22-point gap in adjusted efficiency, which typically projects to about a 14-point spread on a neutral floor. Factor in home court, and we’re right in the ballpark of this 11.5. The market isn’t being generous to Oregon—it’s being accurate about what these teams actually are when you strip away the noise.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Oregon (4-5) @ Indiana (7-2)
Date: February 9, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
Spread: Indiana -11.5
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: Indiana -850, Oregon +550
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s break down why 11.5 is the right neighborhood for this spread. Indiana’s offensive rating of 120.9 ranks 64th nationally, while their defensive rating of 93.9 sits at 29th. That’s a complete team—they can score and they can absolutely lock you down. Oregon? They’re sitting at 106.0 offensively (277th) and 110.4 defensively (248th). Neither side of the ball is working for the Ducks right now, and that’s before we factor in the pace component.
Indiana plays at a 70.7 pace (112th nationally), while Oregon sits at 68.6 (176th). We’re not looking at a track meet here, which actually works in Indiana’s favor. The Hoosiers are efficient enough offensively that they don’t need extra possessions to pull away—they’ll just execute better in the halfcourt. Oregon’s effective field goal percentage of 47.3% ranks 326th nationally, which is absolutely brutal. You can’t win games, let alone cover as a double-digit dog, when you’re shooting that poorly. Indiana’s 56.9% eFG% (44th) is the perfect counter. The market landed at 11.5 because the efficiency gap is real, the matchup favors the home team, and Oregon’s five-game losing streak isn’t some statistical anomaly—they’re just not very good right now.
Oregon Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
I’m searching hard for edges with this Oregon team, and honestly, there’s only one that jumps off the page: offensive rebounding. The Ducks rank 5th nationally in offensive rebound percentage at 38.4%, which is elite. Nate Bittle’s 7.3 boards per game and Kwame Evans Jr.’s 7.1 give them legitimate size, and if they can create second-chance opportunities, they’ve got a path to keeping this closer than the spread suggests.
Jackson Shelstad is the engine, averaging 15.9 points and 4.8 assists (97th nationally in APG). He’s their only real playmaker, and when he’s on, Oregon can generate decent looks. The problem? Everything else. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 107.2 ranks 180th, their true shooting percentage of 52.5% is 307th, and they’re averaging just 72.9 points per game (287th). They can’t shoot from deep at 31.6% (255th), they don’t get to the line effectively, and their 13.1 assists per game (261st) tells you the ball isn’t moving. One guy trying to do everything against a top-30 defense? That’s a recipe for a long night in Bloomington.
Indiana Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Indiana’s offense is humming right now, and it’s not just one-dimensional scoring. They’re putting up 85.4 points per game (64th), but more importantly, they’re doing it efficiently. That 61.1% true shooting percentage ranks 39th nationally, and their 19.3 assists per game sits at 14th. This is a team that shares the ball, finds open shooters, and executes in the halfcourt.
Tucker DeVries leads the way at 17.8 points per game, but the depth is what makes this offense dangerous. Lamar Wilkerson adds 16.0, and they’ve got five guys averaging double figures. The turnover rate is exceptional—just 9.8 per game (25th nationally) with a turnover ratio of 0.1 (17th). They don’t beat themselves, which is critical when you’re laying double digits.
Defensively, Indiana’s 38.5% opponent field goal percentage ranks 28th nationally, and their 93.9 defensive rating (29th) backs it up. They force you into tough shots, they don’t foul excessively, and they rebound well enough to end possessions. The only weakness? They rank 343rd in offensive rebound percentage at 25.7%, which means Oregon’s glass-crashing could create some extra possessions. But when you’re this good on both ends, you can survive one area of vulnerability.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Oregon’s offensive rebounding create enough second-chance points to offset Indiana’s massive efficiency advantage? I’m skeptical. Indiana’s going to control tempo, execute in the halfcourt, and force Oregon into contested jumpers. The Ducks are shooting 40.3% from the field (342nd nationally), and against a defense that ranks 28th in opponent field goal percentage, those numbers are only going to get worse.
Oregon’s five-game losing streak tells the story: 64-68 at Purdue, 66-84 against Iowa, 57-73 against UCLA, 57-72 at Washington, and 52-68 against Michigan State. They’re not competitive against quality Big Ten competition, and Indiana’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 97.0 (20th) puts them firmly in that category. The Ducks haven’t scored more than 66 points in their last five games, and now they’re walking into Assembly Hall against a defense that’s allowing just 66.3 points per game (49th nationally).
Indiana’s recent results show a team that can win close games and blow teams out. They beat Wisconsin 78-77, lost a tough one at USC 75-81, won a shootout at UCLA 98-97, beat Purdue 72-67, and demolished Rutgers 82-59. They’ve got the offensive firepower to push this total over, and the defensive chops to keep Oregon in check. The total of 142.5 feels about right given the pace, but I lean slightly over given Indiana’s ability to score in bunches.
Bash’s Best Bet
Indiana -11.5
I’m laying the points with the Hoosiers, and I’m not overthinking this one. The efficiency gap is massive, the matchup favors Indiana on both ends, and Oregon’s shown absolutely nothing over their last five games to suggest they can hang with a top-20 team on the road. Indiana’s 20th in adjusted net efficiency, they’re at home, and they’re facing a team that can’t shoot, can’t defend, and is spiraling. The offensive rebounding edge for Oregon is real, but it’s not enough to overcome a 22-point efficiency gap.
Indiana wins this one going away, probably something like 81-66. Give me the Hoosiers to cover, and I’ll sleep just fine knowing the numbers back it up.
