Duke brings the nation’s #1 defense to Lenovo Center as 9.5-point favorites against NC State. Bash breaks down the massive efficiency gap and explains why the under is the play in this ACC clash.

Arizona’s laying 7.5 at home against Iowa State in a top-five Big 12 showdown, but the model projects only a 3.9-point margin. Bash breaks down why the Cyclones’ elite efficiency metrics make them live as road underdogs at McKale Memorial Center.

Indiana State is 6-1 straight up in their last seven against UIC, but they are currently surrendering nearly 79 points per game in MVC action. Bash highlights that the Flames have been a “covering machine” on the road (7-2 ATS recently) and possess the #59 ranked defense nationally. This best bet relies on UIC’s ability to force turnovers against a Sycamores unit that ranks near the bottom of the country in ball security.

The Panthers and Bulldogs meet in an in-state clash defined by Northern Iowa’s elite defense and Drake’s home-court grit. Our model identifies a narrow gap between the market’s 3.5-point spread and the reality of a 65-possession grind, making the home underdog a mandatory look for those tracking Missouri Valley tournament seeding.

South Florida’s laying 14 at home against Tulane in an American Athletic Conference clash, and the efficiency gap is massive. But with Tulane covering 6 of 7 on the road and the Bulls struggling ATS at home in this matchup historically, Bash breaks down why the total is the sharper play.

UAB’s laying 5 at home against North Texas, but the Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and 1-6 straight up in their last seven at Bartow Arena. Bash breaks down why the Mean Green’s top-50 defense and UAB’s injury concerns make this spread inflated by at least a point.

Bryan Bash breaks down Charleston at UNC Wilmington, where a 3.5-point spread and 144.5 total hide a CAA matchup built on defensive efficiency and pace control. With Charleston missing Mister Dean and struggling from three against UNCW’s elite perimeter defense, the trends and matchup dynamics point to a grinding, low-scoring battle at Trask Coliseum.

Bradley’s laying 4 points at home against Murray State in a Missouri Valley Conference matchup, but the real value is on the total. The market’s set at 158.5, but the efficiency numbers and pace dynamics suggest a significantly lower-scoring game in Peoria.

Marquette is laying 3.5 to 4 points at home against DePaul in a Big East showdown, but the efficiency numbers tell a different story. Bash breaks down why the market is underestimating the Blue Demons’ elite defense and road ATS dominance in this Sunday afternoon grind at Fiserv Forum.

Illinois State’s top-50 defense limits opponents to 43.1% shooting, a tough hurdle for a Belmont offense missing its primary facilitator. While the Bruins shoot an elite 40.4% from deep, the Redbirds’ 14-2 home record and Belmont’s compromised ball movement suggest the home favorite is the play.