The market has priced this game for a shootout, but our analysis projects a 7.7-point surplus on the total. We break down the defensive splits and why the Shockers’ glacial pace will dictate the final score in Memphis.

Purdue’s offensive fireworks are well-documented, but the Spartans’ ability to suffocate opponents on the perimeter creates a massive 3.6-point gap between our model’s projection and the market spread.

Alabama lays 14.5 at home against Mississippi State in a massive efficiency mismatch. The Tide rank #6 in adjusted offense, but their 1-5 ATS mark at home has Bash targeting the total instead of the side in this SEC showdown.

Villanova’s laying 9.5 at home against Butler, and the efficiency data suggests this spread is too light. Bash breaks down why the Wildcats’ defensive dominance and Butler’s road struggles make this number a gift for home backers.

Cal struggles to generate points against elite competition, while SMU has scored 86 or more in four straight outings. After digging into the transition data, it’s clear that SMU’s 5.4-point offensive rebounding edge will provide the second-chance points needed to silence the Haas Pavilion crowd.

San Diego State is laying 1.5 at home against #23 Utah State, but the efficiency gap tells a different story. Bash breaks down why the Aggies’ elite offense should overcome the Aztecs’ home court advantage in this Mountain West clash at Viejas Arena.

Santa Clara is putting up numbers, but they haven’t faced a unit that allows just 64.3 points per game like Saint Mary’s. The Gaels are laying 5.5 at home, and the “possession math” in a 65-possession environment points toward a blowout. Bash digs into how Saint Mary’s elite perimeter defense—ranked #26 nationally against the three—will neutralize Christian Hammond and force the Broncos to win in the halfcourt.

Iowa lays 6 points against Ohio State in a Big Ten clash where identical offensive efficiency ratings hide a crucial defensive gap. Bash breaks down why the Hawkeyes’ elite defense and home court advantage make this number look light, plus why the total’s begging to go over despite the glacial pace.

Arkansas is laying 7.5 to 8 points against Texas A&M on Wednesday night, and while the Razorbacks are objectively the better team, this spread feels inflated. Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring, both have defensive ratings over 100, and the Aggies’ 40th-ranked adjusted offense can exploit Arkansas’s vulnerabilities. Bash breaks down why Texas A&M +8 is the play in this SEC shootout.

Vanderbilt hosts Georgia in a ranked SEC showdown with the spread sitting at 9 points. Bash breaks down why the efficiency numbers support the market number perfectly, making the total the sharper play in this Memorial Gym matchup.