Montana State hosts Idaho as 3.5-point favorites in a Big Sky battle that’s tighter than the records suggest. Bryan Bash breaks down why the Bobcats’ defensive edge and home-court advantage make them the play despite their underwhelming 4-6 record.

Ohio State travels to Maryland as 7.5-point favorites, and the efficiency metrics suggest this spread might be light. The Buckeyes rank 38th in adjusted net efficiency while Maryland sits at 198th, creating a significant talent gap that home court might not overcome.

Cincinnati lays 5.5 against West Virginia in a Big 12 defensive slugfest featuring two top-12 adjusted defensive efficiency teams. With both offenses ranked outside the top 220 nationally and a total set at 127.5, this projects as a low-scoring grind where the Under offers the best value.

UAB sits as a small favorite against Memphis in an American Athletic Conference grinder. The efficiency numbers say these teams are nearly identical, but the Blazers’ defensive edge and home court could be the difference in a low-possession battle.

William & Mary travels to face UNC Wilmington in a CAA rematch with UNCW laying 4.5 points at home. The Tribe already won this matchup three weeks ago, and the efficiency numbers suggest they’re the better team despite the records. This tempo clash between the 6th-ranked pace team and a grinding Seahawks squad creates betting value on the road dog.

Michigan lays 24.5 points against Penn State in a matchup that pits the nation’s #1 adjusted net efficiency against a Nittany Lions team that’s lost four of five. The efficiency gap and interior dominance make this spread look justified.

Alabama lays 7.5 at home against Texas A&M in an SEC showdown featuring two elite offenses. The Crimson Tide’s pace and efficiency advantages should overwhelm the Aggies’ porous defense despite Texas A&M’s four-game winning streak.

Louisville lays 17.5 at home against Notre Dame in an ACC matchup that looks like a mismatch on paper—and the efficiency numbers confirm it. The Cardinals rank 9th nationally in adjusted net efficiency while the Irish have dropped four of five, including three double-digit road losses. Bash breaks down why the tempo advantage and defensive gap make this number look right.

Houston’s laying 14.5 points at home against UCF in a classic style clash between the Knights’ elite offense and the Cougars’ suffocating defense. Bryan Bash breaks down why this number might be too high for a Houston team that doesn’t score enough to comfortably cover big spreads.

Villanova lays 7.5 at home against Seton Hall in a Big East clash featuring identical adjusted net efficiencies but vastly different styles. The Wildcats’ elite offensive rebounding and shooting efficiency should overwhelm the Pirates’ elite defense in a low-possession battle.