Penn State vs. Northwestern: Preview, Odds, and Prediction

by | Last updated Mar 2, 2023 | cbb

Penn State (17-12 SU 16-13 ATS) vs. Northwestern (20-9 SU 15-14 ATS)
When: Wednesday, March 1st: 9:00 ET
Where: Welsh-Ryan Arena Evanston, IL
Point Spread: PSU +3.5/NW -3.5
Total: 134.0
Money Line: Penn State Nittany Lions +143/Northwestern Wildcats -177

On Wednesday, March 1st, the Texas Longhorns (22-7 SU, 12-17 ATS) will face off against the TCU Horned Frogs (19-10, 15-13) in an exciting college basketball matchup. The game will take place at Schollmaier Arena and will be televised on ESPN2, with tip-off scheduled for 9 pm ET.
Both teams are looking to secure a victory in this game, and the CBB betting line reflects the close matchup, with Texas being the slight underdog at +2.5, while TCU is favored at -2.5. The over/under for the game has been set at 149.5 points, indicating that this could be a high-scoring affair.
As with any game, there are several factors to consider when handicapping this matchup, including each team’s recent performance, injuries, and head-to-head matchups. Texas has been solid all season, with an impressive 22-7 record, while TCU has also had a respectable season with a 19-10 record.

Line Movement

This game opened with Northwestern as a -3 favorite, and both sharp and public action has driven this game up to -4.5. The total hit the board as high as 134.5 but has settled in at 133.5 on most boards.

Last Game Info

Going into their last game, Penn State was the betting favorite at -4.5 but fell to Rutgers by a score of 59-56. The combined 115 points did not surpass the 132.5 total line.

Northwestern most recently fell to Maryland (75-59). Not only did the Wildcats lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +7 point underdogs. The combined 134 points finished above the 129 total line.

Current Form

Penn State
Over their last five games, Penn State has a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Nittany Lions offense averages 73.6 points per game while hitting 49.1% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 46.9% from the field while allowing 70.8 points per contest.

In their previous five contests, Northwestern is 3-2 straight up and 4-1 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 65.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 41.4%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 45.1% of their shots while giving up 64.2 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Penn State’s opponents comes in at 83.2. On the other side, Northwestern’s combined opponent power rating sits at 83.7.

How Does Penn State Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Nittany Lions have played 12 road games and have a record of 4-8. In these contests, Penn State is 6-6 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 67.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.0%. On defense, the Nittany Lions are allowing 70.8 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 46.7% in these games.

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How Does Northwestern Fare At Home?

In their 19 games at home, Northwestern has an 8-11 record vs. the spread while going 14-5 straight-up. On offense, the Wildcats are shooting 39.1% on their home floor, leading to 66.9 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 38.0% in these contests. The Northwestern defense is allowing 58.5 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Penn State is averaging 64.6 points per game (391st) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 43.2%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Northwestern defense that has allowed an average of 62.4 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.3% of their shots vs. Northwestern. On the other side, the Northwestern Wildcats are coming into the game averaging 73.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.7%. The Wildcats will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 68.4 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 43.8% of their shots vs. the Nittany Lions.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Penn State has a shooting percentage of 34.2% while ranking 268th in attempts per game. The Nittany Lions will be facing a Northwestern defense with a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 34.2%. Northwestern enters the game having hit 34.7% of their looks from deep while averaging 8.35 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Penn State has allowed opponents to hit 34.0% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Penn State

  • Caleb Dorsey (Out) Undisclosed


  • Julian Roper II (Out) Ankle
  • Luke Hunger (Out) Foot

Pick Against The Spread

I’m going against public opinion and taking Penn State. They have a nice edge with their three-point shooting, and we’re catching points in a game we could win outright. Take Penn State +4.