The efficiency metrics for this matchup in Boulder paint a picture of total offensive dominance. Colorado ranks 20th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 6th in three-point shooting (41.0%), creating a nightmare scenario for a Portland State team that ranks 239th in offensive efficiency. Bash analyzes why the 16-point gap in adjusted efficiency makes laying the 17.5 points the mathematically sound play.
The Setup: Portland State at Colorado
Colorado’s laying 17.5 points at home against Portland State, and at first glance, that’s a lot of points for a team that just lost to Colorado State and ranks 282nd in defensive efficiency. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the CBD numbers, this spread isn’t about Colorado’s defense. It’s about a massive offensive mismatch that Portland State simply can’t counter. The Buffaloes rank 20th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 120.5, while the Vikings check in at a pedestrian 239th at just 104.4. That’s a 16-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and when you’re getting nearly three extra possessions per game at home, that number starts making a whole lot of sense. I’m backing Colorado to cover this number, and let me walk you through exactly why this line has value despite the Buffs’ defensive issues.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Portland State (5-3) at Colorado (8-1)
Date: December 17, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: CU Events Center, Boulder, CO
Spread: Colorado -17 (Bovada)
Total: 150.5
Moneyline: Colorado -1200, Portland State +750
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency gap that justifies this spread. According to CBD, Colorado’s adjusted net efficiency sits at +11.2, ranking 64th nationally. Portland State? They’re at -0.7, ranking 175th. That’s nearly a 12-point swing in adjusted efficiency, which translates directly to expected point differential.
But here’s where it gets interesting – Colorado’s offensive firepower is elite. They’re shooting 41.0% from three-point range, ranking 6th nationally. That’s not just good shooting – it’s a devastating weapon against a Portland State defense that ranks 219th in opponent three-point percentage at 33.5%. When you’ve got a team that lives beyond the arc facing a defense that can’t defend it, you’re looking at easy math. Colorado’s 58.1% effective field goal percentage (27th nationally) against Portland State’s 115th-ranked opponent field goal percentage defense creates a mismatch that screams blowout potential.
The pace factor matters here too. Portland State plays at 72.4 possessions per game (53rd nationally), while Colorado operates at 67.9 (200th). At home, Colorado will dictate tempo, and even at their slower pace, we’re looking at roughly 68-70 possessions. Do that math over 70 possessions with a 16-point adjusted efficiency gap, and you’re staring at a 20-plus point margin.
Portland State’s Situation
The Vikings come in at 5-3, but let’s talk about that record with some context. Their wins include George Fox (94-50) and Evergreen State (90-61) – games that tell us nothing about how they’ll handle a high-major opponent. The loss to Omaha (55-60) is more revealing – they scored just 55 points against a team that’s nowhere near Colorado’s defensive caliber.
Jaylin Henderson leads the way at 17.5 points per game, and he’s legitimately talented with 6.2 assists per game (16th nationally). Terri Miller Jr. adds 15.6 points and 6.7 rebounds. But here’s the problem – Portland State’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 239th for a reason. They shoot just 33.5% from three (181st) and an abysmal 68.3% from the free throw line (270th). That’s not just bad shooting – it’s why they’ll struggle to keep pace when Colorado starts raining threes.
The Vikings also turn it over 14.2 times per game (314th nationally). Against a Colorado team that ranks 3rd in turnover ratio at just 0.1, those extra possessions will be killers. Portland State’s defensive rating of 99.7 (91st) looks decent, but that adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.1 (117th) tells the real story against quality competition.
Colorado’s Situation
The Buffaloes sit at 8-1, with their only loss coming in a shootout at Colorado State (86-91). That loss actually tells us something important – Colorado can score with anybody. They’re averaging 88.4 points per game (30th nationally) with that elite three-point shooting I mentioned earlier.
This is a balanced offensive attack. Isaiah Johnson leads at 15.3 points per game, but four other players average double figures. Sebastian Rancik (13.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG), Alon Michaeli (11.9 PPG), Bangot Dak (11.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG), and Barrington Hargress (11.3 PPG, 4.9 APG) all contribute. That depth matters in a game where Colorado should be able to empty the bench.
Here’s the thing about Colorado’s defense – yes, they rank 210th in adjusted defensive efficiency at 109.3. Yes, they allow 78.4 points per game (282nd). But against Portland State’s 239th-ranked adjusted offense? That defensive weakness becomes far less relevant. The Buffs also take care of the basketball beautifully, ranking 16th nationally with just 9.4 turnovers per game. Against Portland State’s 173rd-ranked steal rate, Colorado will get clean possessions all night.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the three-point line, and it’s not even close. Colorado’s 41.0% three-point shooting (6th) against Portland State’s 33.5% opponent three-point defense (219th) is a 35-point swing waiting to happen. If Colorado attempts 25 threes – which is conservative given their pace – and hits 40% while Portland State struggles to defend, that’s a 10-point advantage right there before we even discuss anything else.
The turnover battle seals it for me. According to our data, Colorado ranks 3rd nationally in turnover ratio while Portland State ranks 274th. That’s not just a statistical curiosity – it means Colorado will get 4-5 extra possessions through Portland State mistakes. At Colorado’s offensive efficiency of 120.5 points per 100 possessions, those extra chances translate to another 5-6 points.
I keep coming back to those adjusted efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 16-point gap in adjusted offensive efficiency combined with Colorado’s home court advantage in Boulder (elevation matters, folks) creates a scenario where Portland State needs everything to break right just to keep this respectable.
The main risk here is if Colorado gets complacent early and lets Portland State hang around. But with an 8-1 record and Big 12 play looming, Tad Boyle will keep his foot on the gas to build confidence. Colorado’s 157 fast break points suggest they’ll push tempo off Portland State’s 14.2 turnovers per game, turning this into a track meet the Vikings can’t win.
My Play
The Pick: Colorado -17.5 (3 units)
I’ve considered all of that, and the offensive efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Colorado should win this game by 25-plus points. The three-point shooting mismatch alone is worth double digits, and when you add in the turnover differential and Colorado’s ability to score in transition, this becomes a game where the Buffs can name their score.
I’m projecting Colorado 92, Portland State 70. That’s a 22-point margin that comfortably covers the 17.5-point spread. The main risk is garbage time – if Colorado builds a 30-point lead with five minutes left, we might see some bench minutes that let Portland State sneak back. But this Colorado team has been sharp all season, and they’ll want to make a statement before conference play.
This line makes sense when you break down the numbers, but it still offers value because casual bettors will see that 282nd-ranked Colorado defense and get scared. Don’t be. This game is about Colorado’s elite offense overwhelming a Big Sky team that can’t keep up. Lay the points with confidence.
