The books are begging you to take the home favorite here, but Bryan Bash is smelling blood in the water, grabbing the +2.5 with a Portland State squad that’s been an absolute cash cow for bettors away from home.
The Setup: Portland State at Montana State
Montana State is laying 2.5 points at home against Portland State on Thursday night, and the market is basically telling you these teams are dead even. Look, when you’ve got identical adjusted net ratings at +2.3 according to collegebasketballdata.com, this is what happens—the spread becomes purely about home court and nothing else. But here’s where it gets interesting: Portland State is 11-2 ATS on the road this season while Montana State is just 5-4 ATS at home. The Vikings defense ranks 48th nationally in adjusted efficiency compared to Montana State’s 153rd, and that gap matters more than the home court advantage the Bobcats are getting credit for here.
This is a Big Sky Conference matchup with real implications, and the efficiency numbers suggest we’re looking at a game that should be decided by a possession or two. The total sits at 139.5, which feels light given both teams’ offensive capabilities, but we’ll get into that.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: Thursday, February 26, 2026, 9:00 PM ET
Location: Max Worthington Arena, Bozeman, MT
Spread: Montana State -2.5
Total: 139.5/140.5
Moneyline: Montana State -145, Portland State +125
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on Montana State -2.5 because the adjusted efficiency model projects this game at Montana State by 2.2 points with home court included. That’s as clean a number as you’ll see—the market is basically copying the model’s homework. But here’s what the spread doesn’t account for: Portland State’s defensive profile is significantly better than Montana State’s offensive advantage suggests.
Montana State ranks 149th in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Portland State’s 48th-ranked defense. That’s an 8.3-point mismatch in Portland State’s favor. Meanwhile, when you flip it, Portland State’s 262nd-ranked offense against Montana State’s 153rd-ranked defense creates only a 3.6-point edge for the Bobcats. The pace blend sits at 66.8 possessions—neither team is going to run you off the floor—which means every possession matters and defensive execution becomes paramount.
The total at 139.5 reflects that slow pace, but both teams shoot it well enough (Montana State at 58.2% true shooting, Portland State at 56.1%) that I’m not convinced we stay under. The model projects 141.6 points, giving us a 2.1-point edge to the over.
Portland State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Vikings are 18-8 overall and 12-3 in conference play, but more importantly, they’re 11-2 ATS on the road. That’s not luck—that’s a team that travels well and executes away from home. The defense is legit, holding opponents to just 40.7% from the field (31st nationally) and 30.8% from three (41st nationally). Their defensive rating of 99.8 ranks 34th in the country, and that’s your foundation.
Offensively, Jaylin Henderson runs the show at 17.5 points and 6.2 assists per game, while Terri Miller Jr. adds 15.6 points and 6.7 rebounds. The Vikings don’t turn it over much (12.1 per game ranks 233rd, which means they’re careful with the ball), and they control the glass at 37.3 rebounds per game (83rd nationally). They’re not flashy, but they’re fundamentally sound on both ends.
The concern? They’ve lost two of their last five, including a home loss to Eastern Washington where they shot just 31.15% from the field. When the shot isn’t falling, this offense can get stuck in the mud.
Montana State Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Bobcats are 15-13 overall but 10-2 at home, and they’ve won five straight at Max Worthington Arena against Portland State. That home court matters—they’re scoring 77.8 points per game overall but 80+ in their recent home wins. Davian Brown (14.4 PPG) and Patrick McMahon (14.2 PPG) provide balanced scoring, and they shoot 36.1% from three (62nd nationally), which is a significant advantage over Portland State’s 33.2%.
The problem is the defense. Montana State allows 71.9 points per game with a defensive rating of 106.0 (128th nationally). They give up 45.0% shooting from the field (230th) and struggle to protect the rim with just 2.8 blocks per game (274th). Against a disciplined Portland State team that doesn’t beat itself, those defensive lapses get exposed.
Montana State is also coming off three straight road losses, including an 82-79 defeat at Weber State where they couldn’t get stops down the stretch. They’re 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, suggesting the market has been overvaluing them recently.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Montana State can score enough to overcome Portland State’s defensive advantage. The Bobcats have the better offensive rating (110.2 vs 104.3), but they’re facing a defense that ranks 101 spots better in adjusted efficiency. That’s a massive gap.
The rebounding battle tilts toward Portland State (37.3 vs 32.9 per game), which matters in a slower-paced game where second-chance opportunities are gold. Portland State’s 30.4% offensive rebound rate compared to Montana State’s 28.8% means the Vikings should generate extra possessions.
The turnover differential is interesting—Montana State takes better care of the ball (10.1 turnovers per game vs 12.1), but Portland State’s defense forces 7.5 steals per game. If the Vikings can create transition opportunities off turnovers, they’ll exploit Montana State’s suspect defense in the open court.
Head-to-head history shows Montana State winning five straight at home, but Portland State won the road matchup earlier this year 63-54. That game featured 117 total points—well under tonight’s total—and Portland State’s defense held Montana State to just 54 points on 39.7% shooting.
Bash’s Best Bet
Portland State +2.5 (-110)
I’m taking the points with the better defensive team that’s been money on the road all season. Portland State’s 11-2 ATS mark away from home isn’t a fluke—they’re disciplined, they defend, and they don’t beat themselves. Montana State’s 5-4 ATS record at home and recent 4-6 ATS stretch suggests the market has been overvaluing them.
The efficiency mismatch favors Portland State’s defense significantly more than Montana State’s offense. In a 67-possession game, that defensive edge is the difference between winning and losing. The Vikings already proved they can win in Bozeman this season with that 63-54 victory, and the 2.5-point spread gives us cushion in what should be a one-possession game.
I also like Over 139.5 as a secondary play. The model projects 141.6, and both teams shoot well enough to get there. Montana State’s home scoring (77+ per game) combined with Portland State’s road offense (averaging 70+ away from home) should push this total over in a game where both teams need to win to stay relevant in the Big Sky race.
